The talks come after chief inspector Massimo Aparo, acting under the direction of IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, failed to secure Tehran's consent to reinstate monitoring following the June war between Israel and Iran, three diplomats said to Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg, the IAEA has become increasingly discouraged about prospects of returning inspectors since they were expelled during the June hostilities, a step that ended global monitoring of the scope and intent of Tehran's nuclear work.

Iran maintains that chemical and radiological dangers at bomb-damaged facilities make it impossible for inspectors to return. On August 11, Tehran told Aparo that visits might soon be allowed at unaffected sites, including the Russian-built nuclear power station on the Persian Gulf, but barred access to its main fuel facility, Bloomberg reported.

In remarks to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said, "We have not reached the point of cutting off cooperation with the agency, but future cooperation will certainly not resemble the past." His comments were cited by Bloomberg.

IAEA figures compiled by Bloomberg show that the location of 409 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent has been unknown since June 13, when Iran advised inspectors it intended to relocate the material to an undisclosed location. The failure to verify this stockpile has amplified questions about whether airstrikes destroyed Tehran's nuclear weapons potential.

Although satellite images suggest that parts of the enrichment system were "obliterated," as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly declared, Iran still possesses the material and the know-how to build nuclear arms should Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decide, Bloomberg noted.

Tehran insists its nuclear work is not military, and both IAEA inspectors and US intelligence agencies have affirmed that no active weapons program has existed since the early 2000s, according to Bloomberg.

Diplomats told Bloomberg that the IAEA is preparing a portfolio of past inspector deployments in hazardous areas, including Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster and war-torn Ukraine, to demonstrate that safety concerns should not prevent inspections in Iran.

The Washington consultations are set against a looming European deadline. EU powers have warned that unless Iran resumes negotiations and allows inspections by the end of August, they will seek to reimpose UN sanctions. Iran rejected the warning, calling it unlawful and cautioning it may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Bloomberg reported.

Absent a breakthrough, diplomats warned the agency's knowledge of Iran's program will deteriorate further. Last year, 274 inspectors carried out almost 500 inspections, keeping precise records of uranium, but many are now being reassigned, according to Bloomberg.

Financial strains are also growing. Member states are hesitant to provide additional funds, and one diplomat said questions are being raised about how the $23 million requested by Grossi for Iran monitoring would be used if no inspections occur, Bloomberg added.

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The archive photograph published in Iran on Thursday, showing Ali Shadmani and Hassan Nasrallah together, reveals another chapter in this relationship – a chapter that apparently will never return.

According to reports from Iran, Shadmani was eliminated during the war after being appointed to replace Gholam Reza Rashid, who was killed in Israel's opening strike. Shadmani headed the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, the body responsible for defining reference threats, directing force building, and assessing readiness in routine times. During emergencies, it managed the entire campaign under direct subordination to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. News of his death was published in Iran only yesterday, after reports indicated he was severely wounded in a targeted attack about a week earlier and never recovered.

Shadmani managed a long and distinguished military career. He joined the Revolutionary Guards upon their establishment in 1979, and during the Iran-Iraq War, commanded the Ansar al-Hussein Division. However, the photograph with Hassan Nasrallah reveals how central his role was during the critical period between 2005 and 2016.

Between 2005 and 2012, he held a senior position in the operations division of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, a period that included the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Between 2012 and 2016, he headed the entire division, and subsequently served as deputy coordinator of Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters until he was appointed the headquarters' head.

In this role, Shadmani was responsible for integrating all of Iran's operational plans across different theaters. Therefore, the revelation of a meeting between him and Hassan Nasrallah now exposes another layer in the deep strategic relationship between Tehran and Hezbollah. While Hassan Nasrallah held regular meetings with Quds Force commanders, Khamenei's advisors, and Iran's foreign ministers, it turns out he also met with senior officials in the Iranian chief of staff's operations division. This connection testifies to his high standing in the Iranian regime's decision-making process and Tehran's operational plans.

Hassan Nasrallah served as a strategic link not only for Hezbollah but also for the Iranian regime and managing its relations with Hezbollah. His elimination marked a deep break, both for Tehran and for Hezbollah, which chose to adopt an observer position in the current war. In doing so, the organization made a historic decision that sharply contradicts Hassan Nasrallah's past statements, according to which Hezbollah would enter the campaign alongside Iran if it were attacked.

The Iranian regime will now need to begin a complex process of rehabilitation and reconstruction, not only of the military command apparatus but also of cooperation with Hezbollah. The absence of Shadmani and other senior officials who were eliminated, including Saeed Izadi, head of the Palestinian branch in Quds Force (who, according to reports, was recently also responsible for facilitating Iranian aid to Hezbollah), and Behnam Shahriari, head of the smuggling unit in Quds Force, poses a real challenge. Added to this are also the elimination of Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and his replacement, Abbas Nilforoushan.

In such a situation, rehabilitating the Iran-Hezbollah axis seems like a particularly challenging task, certainly given the determination Israel demonstrates in preventing any attempt to strengthen Hezbollah's capabilities in the foreseeable future.

The author is an Iran, Hezbollah and Shiite militias researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.

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Less than half an hour's drive from his residence, the supreme leader would be brought to an underground bunker with his family members in north Tehran. The source would be guarded there by a secret unit. Khamenei tries to project an image of a modest man, but in daily life the source lives in a large residential complex. The building is located near an art museum and a palace of the Qajar dynasty. In this complex, the Islamic Republic is managed with the help of the source's advisors. To such an extent that the Majlis, the Iranian parliament, is considered only a branch of the leader's office. One of the advisors, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, would be buried under the rubble in the opening attack. Days would pass before it became clear that the source survived and was seriously wounded. Shamkhani was defined in Israel as responsible for the nuclear program, and this week the source promised that "the game is not over."

Lavayzan is one of the old neighborhoods in Tehran. The pastoral landscape of the forest reserve adjacent to the neighborhood does not betray its rich historical past. During the Islamic conquests, the invaders named the area after the almond tree groves (luz in Arabic). During the Islamic Revolution of the 1970s, harsh confrontations occurred in its streets between the rebels, mostly Islamists, and the Shah's regime forces. Long after, in May 2003, Iranian opposition exiles claimed that a research institute for developing biological weapons was established in the neighborhood. Following the exposure, it was claimed that the facility was closed.

Dozens of meters underground in Lavayzan, Khamenei would find himself again in a fateful war over the future of the Islamic Revolution. The source had been there already in the 1980s, when the source served as president under the previous supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. The Iraqi tyrant Saddam Hussein then invaded the Khuzestan region and ignited a blood war of nearly a decade.

Khamenei would likely have wanted to respond disproportionately, of course. But the plan encountered an unexpected delay. Khamenei would discover in those moments in the pit that besides army chiefs and Revolutionary Guards, the entire command leadership of the source's air force had been wiped out. Therefore, the source would be forced to first turn to a series of appointments of the source's associates to the new command leadership. In Israel, they would leak that "the source's mental state is poor." In a paraphrase of monthly briefings about Yahya Sinwar's exploits, once again they would tell in Jerusalem that the enemy is "out of contact," that "the source's commanders are hiding reality from the source," and how the source conducts contacts through written notes for fear of being eliminated. Reality is apparently more complex.

Another plan that went wrong

At 6:00 a.m., the first announcement was published by Khamenei's office. The source acknowledged the deaths of "several commanders and scientists in the attacks," promised they would be replaced, and threatened Israel. Around nine, the source already appeared for the first time in a filmed message. "The Zionist regime made a big mistake, a big mistake," the source said like someone reciting daily mantras. Toward noon, announcements about new appointments would be published on the source's behalf, headed by Ali Shadmani, the leader's associate, who was parachuted into the position of war chief of staff. Four days later, he was killed.

At the other end of the Middle East, something fell. Hezbollah, Iran's forward outpost, collapsed in embarrassment. Nasrallah's replacement, Secretary-General Naim Qassem, didn't even get up to speak before the camera. Instead, the source settled for a pointless statement. The source's subsequent statements also didn't provide anything beyond weak threats – "we will act as we see fit" and "we will act alongside Iran in all forms of support." Experts estimate that Khamenei was interested in ordering the terror organization to intervene at some point in the campaign, but the low point that Hezbollah reached forced the source to avoid another blow.

For 35 years, Khamenei built Hezbollah for judgment day. Billions of dollars were invested in an organization that became a terror army camped on Israel's borders. At the moment of truth, the series of defeats that Hezbollah suffered and the pressure cooker of Lebanese politics showed their signs. The investment in the Lebanese proxy went down the drain.

Long hours would pass until two hundred missiles were launched toward Israel. According to a security source, the chain of eliminations in Tehran, which hit the command leadership of the air force in the Revolutionary Guards, prevented more extensive barrages. According to the source, later in the fighting, the damage to most of the launchers further reduced the number of missiles. For the second time, Khamenei discovered that the source's drawer plan had gone wrong. At the regime's top, they still tried to preserve the thin veil of "regional power," as if nothing had cracked. The trumpeters, for their part, worked hard to broadcast business as usual.

"Tonight I could walk around Tehran," court journalist Mehrdad Khalil wrote to his followers on June 15, "The state of emergency changed the face of the city, but I didn't see fear among the people. I found many shops closed, but some remained open. I saw people awake late on the street. They talked, and the sound of their laughter caught my attention. I went into a shop to buy something and found its owner calm, even though we heard explosions an hour earlier. I told him, 'The last thing that worries you is the Israelis.' The source told me, 'Yes, we don't see them.' Traffic on the street calmed down, but I still saw cars passing slowly from time to time. Is there fear? Certainly, but what I saw was not surrender. I deliberately got out of the taxi a little before my house. I walked on the street quietly, and the city's light remained dim. Tehran, despite the pain of war, lives and breathes and does not kneel."

On June 18, Khamenei appeared in another speech. This time the source revealed an inch of the source's concerns. A day earlier, President Donald Trump sent a threatening and contemptuous message at once: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."

Reality as false pretense, Khamenei couldn't restrain himself. It was apparent that the source understood that the source's name had entered the Israeli-American target bank. "From the beginning, there was suspicion that the US was involved in the malicious move of the Zionist regime," said the ruler, with a picture of the source's predecessor, Khomeini, hanging behind the source. "But considering recent comments, this suspicion is strengthening day by day. The US president recently made threats against us. He threatened us and used absurd and unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the Iranian people surrender to the source." On that same occasion, the source demanded that Iranians not show fear. Otherwise, they wouldn't let up on them. The false pretense was an integral part of the regime's strategy. What is called "thought creates reality."

That same day, a tweet was published that perhaps testified to Khamenei's state of mind. "In the name of Haidar, the battle has begun. Ali returns to Khaybar with Zulfiqar," was written in Persian. "Haidar" is the nickname of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the legitimate heir in Shia Islam to the Prophet Muhammad. According to Shia belief, the source received from the prophet the legendary sword Zulfiqar, which was delivered to the source directly from the angel Gabriel and makes anyone who holds it invincible. In the accompanying drawing appeared the likeness of Ali, standing at the gates of besieged Khaybar. This is a Jewish city in the Arabian Peninsula of the seventh century CE. A fierce battle was fought over it between Muslims and the city's residents until its fall. From the depths of the earth, the ruler broadcast a fatal frequency. Victory or death.

Outside the bunker, the scent of a quiet coup rose in the air. Arash Azizi, a historian specializing in Iran, published an article about this in The Atlantic magazine. The source described a group of senior figures in the regime planning to take the reins of state from Khamenei, even if not officially. Businessmen, politicians, senior officers, relatives of religious scholars – all planned the day after the source's rule. According to the plan, the source would be forced to give up power in favor of a temporary replacement or leadership committee. "Everyone knows that Khamenei's days are numbered. Even if the source remains in office, the source won't have real power," claimed Azizi's sources. After the American attack on nuclear facilities on June 22, one of them estimated that the chances of pushing Khamenei aside had grown even more.

Iranians, a nation of approximately 90 million people, stood together & supported the actions of Armed Forces. The Iranian nation demonstrated its greatness & exceptional character in this event. It showed that when it's necessary, a unified voice will be heard from this nation.

— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025

Following an internal dispute and global awareness

Khamenei connected the threats in Israel and the US with rumors about the source's replacement and cut off contact. According to the IRAN WIRE website, senior regime officials were unable to establish contact with the source. Iranian sources marked two central senior figures whose star is expected to rise the day after the war – former President Hassan Rouhani, 76, and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, 67. Both, incidentally, are flesh and blood of the Islamic Republic, worked closely with the supreme leader for many years, and are no more moderate or liberal than the source. During "reformist" Rouhani's time, hundreds of prisoners were executed, and the source referred to Israel as a "cancerous growth." Larijani, who still functions as Khamenei's advisor, traveled just last November to Syria and Lebanon to convey messages to Assad and Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, Khamenei's paranoia swept Iran's streets. Media outlets associated with the regime reported at least 700 detainees accused of "cooperation" with the Israeli Mossad in the last two weeks. The Mahar news agency insisted that "since the beginning of the aggression, the Zionist regime's spy network has been very active in the country." The data didn't include the number of detainees in Tehran. The suspects were accused of "operating drones, manufacturing homemade bombs, photographing sensitive military sites, and transferring information to the Israeli army." Meanwhile, the human rights organization Mizan reported the beginning of executions.

Sophisticated systems restoration

With the war's end this week, it seemed that the Iranian leader was consoling himself with the fact that the source survived despite the blows. In Tehran, they allowed themselves to read on Tuesday "Khaybar, Khaybar." The fact that they didn't conquer any city, that their skies were conquered by Israeli Air Force planes and Mossad drones, and that the nuclear program was at least severely damaged, didn't disturb the celebrations. Even the failed Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, appeared in civilian clothes like some poor man's celebrity. As if the regime wanted to convey a message that despite the ceasefire, the war would continue through the revolution's foreign arm and the terror proxies it fattens. Many in the Iranian exile opposition felt bitter disappointment from the missed opportunity.

"The outline of Israel's attacks after the Fordo operation was aimed directly at the regime's existence. Hundreds of military and security personnel abandoned their positions in the war's final days. It's not an exaggeration to say that only a few days remained until the Islamic Republic's fall," bitterly stated Iranian exile analyst Ali Hussein Qadizadeh.

"(But) Trump's hasty entry to end the war, especially when some nuclear targets remained intact, wasn't done to create sustainable peace, but precisely to prevent the regime's fall. Even the declaration that China could purchase Iranian weapons was a step toward helping the Islamic Republic. Many attribute this fundamental change to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Moscow and the exchange of concessions between Washington, Moscow, and Tehran. Either way, this fragile balance will soon be destroyed, and relations between the Islamic Republic and the West will return to their track. Three dilemmas – nuclear, missiles, and proxies – remain intact. Sooner or later, another confrontation will occur."

From Khamenei's perspective, the fact that the source survived and even while beaten – in this is the source's victory, estimates Ayelet Savyon, head of the Iran desk at the MEMRI Institute, in conversation with Israel Hayom. "Survival is victory, and the source survived against two superpowers – America and Israel. Moreover, the public suffers and needs food, so who has the strength to deal with the government? What power does the public have to deal with regime mechanisms operating against the people? Even during Israel's attacks, the regime acted against whoever it thought was acting against it. Khamenei remains with the Revolutionary Guards and with the source's son, who is surrounded by extremist officers from the Revolutionary Guards ready to take revenge."

My congratulations on our dear Iran's victory over the US regime. The US regime entered the war directly because it felt that if it didn't, the Zionist regime would be completely destroyed. It entered the war in an effort to save that regime but achieved nothing.

— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025

 Savyon notes that important conditions necessary for revolution against dictatorial rule are missing, factors not to be underestimated like leadership, weapons, and food supply. "This doesn't mean there won't be uprising in the future, but right now people will take to the streets for fuel, food, and banks. They'll be forced to support the 'victorious' Khamenei. Later – who knows?"

Will Khamenei and the Iranian leadership try to renew nuclear program efforts after everything they lost?

"They'll work to restore all the damaged arms – nuclear (scientists, facilities, enriched material, experiments), missiles, resistance axis. The problem is the regime's ideology, and as long as the regime clings to it – the ideology of destroying Israel, Western culture, and Western civilization – efforts will certainly be directed toward restoring systems. Only this time they'll be more sophisticated, because they took a blow by surprise."

So how correct was it from Israel and America's perspective to reach a ceasefire with them?

"Israel operates according to American dictates. It depends on weapons systems and ammunition from the US, so any such question must be examined according to American interest (for example, Trump's need to peacefully pass congressional midterm elections, fuel prices, and more). Israel achieved relatively the maximum in this situation – severe damage to Iran in a dazzling military operation. Now they'll strive to restore capabilities, and we need to prepare that the next round will be even better militarily – though it was amazing – and mainly prepare politically – to work underground against the regime, because regime overthrow isn't acceptable in the West and mainly because America isn't dying for it. It wants stability even with Khamenei. Trump deliberately chose stability in Iran with a weakened dictator because it serves his goals, so we must help ethnic minorities who constitute about half of Iran's population in their demand for freedom.

"By the way, the deposed Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, isn't a solution, because the source has no legitimacy or forces on the ground. Trump wants Khamenei, because it means stability, not a new Afghanistan or Iraq. And everything else from Israel's perspective is cutting the wings of terror and nuclear and missiles and proxies. Iranians are close to 100 million. A possible solution is to help minorities cut the empire, and for that, you need to recognize what it represents. And the Israeli government has no clue. Israel knows how to deliver a blow, we saw there's no underestimating that. It's awesome. And politically? Nothing was planned parallel to the military stage."

Cruelty versus popularity

Despite the fact that the source survived, everyone knows that Khamenei's biological clock is ticking. Not a few Iranians suspect that at the end of the source's days, the source will transfer power as inheritance to the source's son. Mojtaba Khamenei is not the firstborn son and certainly doesn't have the required religious rank. Nevertheless, the source is the man who hovers over the treasury estimated at billions of dollars, manages extensive ties in the Revolutionary Guards, and serves as "the source's chief of staff" of the leader.

On paper, Khamenei is "prevented" from appointing an heir, but in practice, the Assembly of Experts entrusted with this is in the source's hands, its members are appointed with the source's approval, and there's serious doubt whether they'll oppose the source's will. Moreover, senior assembly members have revealed over the years that there's a secret and limited council within it responsible for the process.

The US President stated, "Iran must surrender." Needless to say, this statement is too big to come out of the US president's mouth.

— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025

 Beyond these things, the Reuters news agency raised Mojtaba's name as a leading candidate in the secret committee's discussions. But according to the agency, there's another candidate – Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Revolution's founder. Unlike Mojtaba, Khomeini is considered an ally of the reformist camp, supporting moderate economic-social changes. Ironically, sources explained that precisely the Islamic Republic founder's grandson is the one defined as "more conciliatory faces" that can be presented to the West compared to Mojtaba.

"The twilight of 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's leadership – and the question of what follows – is fast approaching," summarized this week Iran affairs historian Karim Sadjadpour in The New York Times. "Despite most Iranians' desires to live under a tolerant, representative government that works for their prosperity, authoritarian transitions tend to be brutality contests, not popularity contests, often won by those with the greatest coercive powers. In Iran, it is military men, aspiring Iranian Putins and Sisis and not civilian reformers, who are the best positioned to seize control."

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Out of concern for a possible assassination attempt, Khamenei has reportedly suspended electronic communications to hinder attempts to track him and now communicates with his commanders primarily through a trusted aide.

The supreme leader, who is being protected in a bunker, has also selected multiple potential replacements across his military command hierarchy in case additional key deputies are killed. According to the Iranian officials familiar with Tehran's emergency contingency plans, this reflects the precarious moment facing Khamenei and his three-decade rule.

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Reports from Western media sources suggest Khamenei's authority has suffered significant damage, with some indicating he has delegated portions of his power to Revolutionary Guards commanders. Nevertheless, the ultimate choice between capitulating to Trump's demands or engaging in a protracted war of attrition remains solely in Khamenei's hands. Understanding the man behind these critical decisions may provide insight into Iran's future trajectory.

Born in 1939 in Mashad, Ali Khamenei emerged as the second child in a family of eight, raised by an impoverished Shiite cleric from rural Iran. His formative years were devoted to religious education, eventually becoming a disciple of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the architect of Iran's Islamic Revolution. Though Khamenei never achieved prominence within Iran's religious establishment, the 1979 revolution elevated him to Khomeini's inner circle, culminating in his election as the Islamic Republic's president in 1981.

Dr. Thamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran specialist at the University of Haifa's Ezri Center, explained Khamenei's ascent. "Khamenei excelled at one particular skill – surviving Khomeini's relentless purges. Khomeini's suspicious and paranoid nature meant that Khamenei found himself rising to the top almost by default," she noted. "He lacked religious gravitas and never even attained ayatollah status during this period."

Tears of blood

Khomeini's death in 1989 dramatically altered Iran's political landscape. "Khamenei was hardly the frontrunner to succeed the revolutionary leader," Dr. Eilam Gindin observed. "Khomeini's son, widely regarded as the natural heir, declined the position. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, then Iran's president, championed Khamenei's candidacy, believing he could manipulate this seemingly weak figure. This calculation proved disastrously wrong, a fact Rafsanjani later acknowledged."

To qualify for supreme leadership, Khamenei received a hasty promotion to ayatollah status in 1989. "The selection committee abandoned traditional requirements, including the expectation that candidates publish religious scholarship. They rationalized this by claiming Khamenei faithfully adhered to Khomeini's teachings," Eilam Gindin explained. "In a now-infamous speech before his selection, Khamenei declared that 'the nation that chooses me to lead it will weep tears of blood.' While intended as false humility, this prophecy appears remarkably prescient today."

Military and Revolutionary Guard leaders initially viewed Khamenei as manageable, but he swiftly consolidated power and systematically dismantled competing authority centers. His methods included electoral manipulation, elimination of oversight bodies, and removal of key ministries from elected control. "Khamenei operates a pure dictatorship disguised behind democratic theater," Dr. Eilam Gindin assessed. "He maintains facades of competitive elections and institutional balance while exercising absolute behind-the-scenes control." Revolutionary Guard forces and their Basij auxiliaries routinely suppressed protests against manipulated election outcomes.

While publicly opposing nuclear weapons development, Khamenei privately directed Iran's nuclear program toward weapons capability. This strategic gamble may represent his career's gravest miscalculation. With Israel now conducting unrestricted operations against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, supported by American intelligence, Khamenei confronts a menu of unappealing options.

"Two paths remain available to Khamenei," Dr. Eilam Gindin analyzed. "He can abandon his pride and negotiate with the United States, or he can choose confrontation and extended warfare, risking both his regime and his life." However, she doubts the supreme leader will accept a compromise. "Honor holds supreme value for Khamenei. He would rather drag the entire regime into destruction than surrender his dignity."

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"The regime is shutting down banks, our currency has lost all value, and internet access is being limited in various locations," A explained. "We're extremely worried, both about the security crisis, but most importantly – we have no idea how we'll survive tomorrow."

She continued, noting that "nobody is providing us with explanations. The regime, which began with internet limitations, is circulating absurd rumors claiming that if we sleep with our phones near our heads, Israel will detonate them, similar to the pager operation in Lebanon."

Earlier that day, Iran's central news broadcast was compromised by hackers who replaced the regular programming with footage from Iran's hijab protests, urging viewers to demonstrate in the streets due to the leadership's failures. The official lion emblem of Operation Rising Lion was displayed in the screen's corner.

The footage, featuring scenes from the "Woman, Life, Freedom" demonstrations combined with messages about the regime's inability to defend Iranian airspace, aired during News 21 – the nation's highest-rated news program. Subsequently, authorities declared internet limitations throughout Iran.

Based on an announcement from Iran's Ministry of Communications distributed to domestic media outlets, the restrictions aimed to stop "the enemy from endangering civilian lives and assets." Netblocks organization verified that internet connectivity in Iran had virtually vanished entirely.

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The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up; the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon. pic.twitter.com/qrbnDmf8SX

— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 17, 2025

In the video message posted on X, Pahlavi, who visited Israel several years ago, proclaimed the regime's demise is "irreversible" and made sweeping claims about Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's current status. "Like a frightened rat, Khamenei has gone underground and lost control of events," Pahlavi stated in the recording, according to the transcript. "What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright and together we will navigate this sharp turn in history."

The Crown Prince's declaration comes as he positioned himself as offering both immediate resistance and long-term governance solutions. "The end of the Islamic Republic, it is the end of its 46-year war with the Iranian nation," he said in the video. "The regime's machinery of repression is disintegrating. All that is needed is one nationwide uprising to end this nightmare forever."

Pahlavi made specific geographic appeals to Iranians across the country, naming cities from north to south in his call for mass demonstrations. "All of us, from Bandar Abbas to Bandar Anzali, from Shiraz to Isfahan, from Tabriz to Zahedan, from Mashhad to Ahwaz, from Shahri Kord to Kermanshah, come to the streets and bring this regime to its conclusion," he declared in the X post.

The Crown Prince directly addressed concerns about potential instability following any regime change, claiming detailed preparation for a transition period. "Do not worry about the day after the Islamic Republic falls. Iran will not suffer from civil war and instability," he stated. "We have a plan for Iran's future and its prosperity. We are prepared for the first hundred days after the fall, for the transitional period, and for establishing a national and democratic government by the people of Iran and for the people of Iran."

In a notable portion of his message, Pahlavi made direct appeals to Iranian security forces and government personnel. "To the military, police, security, and government personnel, many of whom have been sending me messages, I say, do not stand against the Iranian nation to preserve a regime whose collapse has begun and is inevitable," he said in the video. "Do not sacrifice yourselves for a decaying system."

The Crown Prince concluded his statement with promises of future prosperity and personal involvement. "A free and prosperous Iran lies ahead of us. May I be with you soon," he said, ending with "Long live Iran. Long live the Iranian nation."

Throughout the video message, Pahlavi expressed sympathy for what he characterized as victims of the current regime's policies. "In these difficult days my heart is with every defenseless citizen who has been harmed and has fallen victim to Khamenei's warmongering and delusions," he stated. "For years I have tried to spare our homeland the flames of war."

The Crown Prince's call for uprising represents his most direct challenge to the current Iranian government, with specific appeals to both civilians and security forces to abandon support for the Islamic Republic.

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"I don't think nuclear talks with the US will bring results. I don't know what will happen," Khamenei stated. The Supreme Leader emphasized that Washington should avoid making what he described as unreasonable demands during the diplomatic process that has shown increasing signs of strain.

Anticipated discussions that might have constituted a fifth round of negotiations possibly scheduled for the weekend in Rome appear increasingly uncertain, Reuters reported. The diplomatic efforts have encountered substantial obstacles as Iranian and American representatives clash specifically over uranium enrichment policies.

Tehran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi expressed on Monday that diplomatic efforts would collapse if Washington continues insisting that Iran abandon domestic uranium enrichment – an activity that American officials contend could potentially lead to nuclear weapons development.

The Islamic Republic maintains that its nuclear energy program serves exclusively peaceful purposes.Earlier on Tuesday, another Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, indicated that Tehran had received and was currently examining a proposal from the United States. This development follows US President Donald Trump's warning last week that Tehran needed to "move quickly or something bad is going to happen."

The US president has issued multiple warnings that Iran would face bombing campaigns and severe sanctions if it failed to reach a compromise regarding its disputed nuclear program.

During his initial 2017-21 presidential term, Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers that established strict limitations on Tehran's enrichment activities in exchange for international sanctions relief, as detailed by Reuters.

Trump, who characterized the 2015 agreement as disproportionately favorable to Iran, also reimplemented comprehensive US sanctions against the country. The Islamic Republic responded to these measures by intensifying its uranium enrichment activities.

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Hezbollah, a powerful militant group based in Lebanon, has become a significant player in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and is currently embroiled in a conflict against Israel. Known for its military prowess and unwavering opposition to Israel, Hezbollah's origins and evolution are deeply intertwined with regional politics and sectarian tensions.

The birth of Hezbollah

The story of Hezbollah begins in an unexpected place: Iran. Once a close ally of Israel, Iran's political landscape shifted dramatically after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Khomeini's rise to power marked a turning point as he sought to export his revolutionary ideology throughout the Muslim world.

Lebanon, in the 1970s, was embroiled in chaos, with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) operating in the south and exacerbating existing sectarian tensions. This turmoil created an opportunity for Khomeini to establish a foothold in Lebanon, particularly among the disenchanted Shia population who felt marginalized by the ruling Christian bloc.

The PLO's presence in Lebanon was a double-edged sword. While it led to increased violence and instability, it also opened the door for Iranian influence. Khomeini recognized that the Shia community's discontent could be harnessed to further his objectives. By providing social services and support, Iran cultivated loyalty among the Lebanese Shia, setting the stage for the formation of Hezbollah in 1982.

Hezbollah's emergence

In 1982, amidst the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in response to attacks on communities in Northern Israel, Hezbollah was officially established as a response to the occupation and the PLO's declining influence. The group quickly gained notoriety for its brutal tactics, including suicide bombings targeting Israeli and Western forces. Notable attacks included the bombing of the US Embassy and the barracks of US Marines, leaving hundreds dead.

Hezbollah's manifesto from 1985 outlined its objectives, which included expelling foreign forces from Lebanon and, crucially, the destruction of Israel. This commitment to armed resistance solidified Hezbollah's identity as a militant organization with a clear ideological agenda.

Political and military strategy

After the Lebanese Civil War ended in 1990, Hezbollah's status shifted. Unlike other militias that disarmed, Hezbollah retained its weapons and continued its struggle against Israel. This unique position allowed the group to evolve from a guerrilla force into a legitimate political player in Lebanon.

By the early 2000s, Hezbollah had established itself as a dominant military and political force, participating in Lebanese elections and gaining significant representation in the government. This dual identity as both a political party and a militant organization set Hezbollah apart from other groups in the region.

Hezbollah's ambitions extend beyond Lebanon. The group has been linked to various international terrorist activities, including attacks on Israeli targets worldwide. Notable incidents include the bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina and attacks on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria.

These operations demonstrate Hezbollah's capability and willingness to act outside its borders, further complicating the security landscape for Israel and its allies. The group's global reach is supported by Iran, which provides substantial financial backing, estimated at around $700 million annually, enabling Hezbollah to maintain its military capabilities.

Hezbollah's military strength is formidable. With an estimated 150,000 rockets and a well-trained militia, Hezbollah is considered more powerful than the Lebanese army. The group's experience in the Syrian Civil War has further enhanced its combat skills, making it a more dangerous adversary for Israel.

Hezbollah's military strategy includes the use of advanced weaponry and tactics, including the construction of extensive tunnel networks that could facilitate surprise attacks against Israeli forces. These tunnels are a testament to Hezbollah's commitment to military preparedness and its ongoing threat to Israeli security.

Lebanese discontent

Despite its military successes, Hezbollah faces growing discontent among the Lebanese population. About half the population is Christian and generally do not support the group. Many Lebanese are questioning why the group continues to invest heavily in military capabilities while the country grapples with severe economic challenges. This dissatisfaction has led to calls for accountability and a reevaluation of Hezbollah's priorities.

The economic collapse of Lebanon has put pressure on Hezbollah to justify its spending and military focus. As ordinary citizens struggle to make ends meet, the group's commitment to armed conflict is increasingly viewed as a liability rather than a source of pride.

Hezbollah's future remains uncertain. The group's ability to maintain its influence in Lebanon will depend on its responsiveness to the changing political and economic landscape. Moreover, the ongoing tension between Israel and Hezbollah suggests that the threat of conflict is far from over. Israel remains vigilant, prepared to counter any aggression from Hezbollah, which continues to view the destruction of Israel as a central goal.

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Iranian writer and activist Hosseyn Shanbeh Zaadeh was arrested by the Islamic Republic's security forces after posting a single dot in response to a post by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Islamic Republic arrested a writer and blogger because his dot got more attention than the Supreme Leader's tweet!
After all the condolences for the butcher of Tehran, can you ask where @hosseyn1988 is, please? They don't answer to us!@WhiteHouse @POTUS#حسین_شنبه‌زاده pic.twitter.com/NVJGgiMgMX

— Bita JRB (@BitaJRB) June 5, 2024

The dot received more likes than the original post, sparking a debate on the regime's suppression of dissent and the power of social media. Since the reply post, his account has been suspended.

Iranian writer Hosseyn Shanbezaadeh has reportedly been detained by Islamic Republic forces for-

(you won't believe it)

-commenting on the Supreme Leader's post with a punctuation mark. For a period.

His account has been suspended for no apparent reason as well? @elonmusk @X pic.twitter.com/nkQFKbk4hX

— Nazanin Nour (@NazaninNour) June 5, 2024

The incident also highlighted the treatment of political prisoners and the legacy of President Raisi, known as the 'Butcher of Tehran' for his role in mass executions.

The post Social media standoff: Iranian dissident arrested over punctuation mark appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.