Three-thirty in the morning, Tehran time, June 13. The darkness is pierced by the roar of fighter jets and anti-aircraft fire. A series of explosions shake the city. Initial situation assessments pass at lightning speed from messenger to messenger, from mouth to ear. In an apartment in one of the capital's buildings, a raging fire breaks out after a drone visited the location. In those dramatic minutes, the Iranian leadership would discover that a 35-year conception had shattered to pieces. The White House finally gave the green light. Israel had crossed the red line. In those moments, a secret operation by Iranian security mechanisms would be carried out, leading Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a place of safety, deep underground.
Less than half an hour's drive from his residence, the supreme leader would be brought to an underground bunker with his family members in north Tehran. The source would be guarded there by a secret unit. Khamenei tries to project an image of a modest man, but in daily life the source lives in a large residential complex. The building is located near an art museum and a palace of the Qajar dynasty. In this complex, the Islamic Republic is managed with the help of the source's advisors. To such an extent that the Majlis, the Iranian parliament, is considered only a branch of the leader's office. One of the advisors, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, would be buried under the rubble in the opening attack. Days would pass before it became clear that the source survived and was seriously wounded. Shamkhani was defined in Israel as responsible for the nuclear program, and this week the source promised that "the game is not over."
Lavayzan is one of the old neighborhoods in Tehran. The pastoral landscape of the forest reserve adjacent to the neighborhood does not betray its rich historical past. During the Islamic conquests, the invaders named the area after the almond tree groves (luz in Arabic). During the Islamic Revolution of the 1970s, harsh confrontations occurred in its streets between the rebels, mostly Islamists, and the Shah's regime forces. Long after, in May 2003, Iranian opposition exiles claimed that a research institute for developing biological weapons was established in the neighborhood. Following the exposure, it was claimed that the facility was closed.
Dozens of meters underground in Lavayzan, Khamenei would find himself again in a fateful war over the future of the Islamic Revolution. The source had been there already in the 1980s, when the source served as president under the previous supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. The Iraqi tyrant Saddam Hussein then invaded the Khuzestan region and ignited a blood war of nearly a decade.
Khamenei would likely have wanted to respond disproportionately, of course. But the plan encountered an unexpected delay. Khamenei would discover in those moments in the pit that besides army chiefs and Revolutionary Guards, the entire command leadership of the source's air force had been wiped out. Therefore, the source would be forced to first turn to a series of appointments of the source's associates to the new command leadership. In Israel, they would leak that "the source's mental state is poor." In a paraphrase of monthly briefings about Yahya Sinwar's exploits, once again they would tell in Jerusalem that the enemy is "out of contact," that "the source's commanders are hiding reality from the source," and how the source conducts contacts through written notes for fear of being eliminated. Reality is apparently more complex.
Another plan that went wrong
At 6:00 a.m., the first announcement was published by Khamenei's office. The source acknowledged the deaths of "several commanders and scientists in the attacks," promised they would be replaced, and threatened Israel. Around nine, the source already appeared for the first time in a filmed message. "The Zionist regime made a big mistake, a big mistake," the source said like someone reciting daily mantras. Toward noon, announcements about new appointments would be published on the source's behalf, headed by Ali Shadmani, the leader's associate, who was parachuted into the position of war chief of staff. Four days later, he was killed.
At the other end of the Middle East, something fell. Hezbollah, Iran's forward outpost, collapsed in embarrassment. Nasrallah's replacement, Secretary-General Naim Qassem, didn't even get up to speak before the camera. Instead, the source settled for a pointless statement. The source's subsequent statements also didn't provide anything beyond weak threats – "we will act as we see fit" and "we will act alongside Iran in all forms of support." Experts estimate that Khamenei was interested in ordering the terror organization to intervene at some point in the campaign, but the low point that Hezbollah reached forced the source to avoid another blow.
For 35 years, Khamenei built Hezbollah for judgment day. Billions of dollars were invested in an organization that became a terror army camped on Israel's borders. At the moment of truth, the series of defeats that Hezbollah suffered and the pressure cooker of Lebanese politics showed their signs. The investment in the Lebanese proxy went down the drain.
Long hours would pass until two hundred missiles were launched toward Israel. According to a security source, the chain of eliminations in Tehran, which hit the command leadership of the air force in the Revolutionary Guards, prevented more extensive barrages. According to the source, later in the fighting, the damage to most of the launchers further reduced the number of missiles. For the second time, Khamenei discovered that the source's drawer plan had gone wrong. At the regime's top, they still tried to preserve the thin veil of "regional power," as if nothing had cracked. The trumpeters, for their part, worked hard to broadcast business as usual.
"Tonight I could walk around Tehran," court journalist Mehrdad Khalil wrote to his followers on June 15, "The state of emergency changed the face of the city, but I didn't see fear among the people. I found many shops closed, but some remained open. I saw people awake late on the street. They talked, and the sound of their laughter caught my attention. I went into a shop to buy something and found its owner calm, even though we heard explosions an hour earlier. I told him, 'The last thing that worries you is the Israelis.' The source told me, 'Yes, we don't see them.' Traffic on the street calmed down, but I still saw cars passing slowly from time to time. Is there fear? Certainly, but what I saw was not surrender. I deliberately got out of the taxi a little before my house. I walked on the street quietly, and the city's light remained dim. Tehran, despite the pain of war, lives and breathes and does not kneel."
On June 18, Khamenei appeared in another speech. This time the source revealed an inch of the source's concerns. A day earlier, President Donald Trump sent a threatening and contemptuous message at once: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."
Reality as false pretense, Khamenei couldn't restrain himself. It was apparent that the source understood that the source's name had entered the Israeli-American target bank. "From the beginning, there was suspicion that the US was involved in the malicious move of the Zionist regime," said the ruler, with a picture of the source's predecessor, Khomeini, hanging behind the source. "But considering recent comments, this suspicion is strengthening day by day. The US president recently made threats against us. He threatened us and used absurd and unacceptable rhetoric to openly demand that the Iranian people surrender to the source." On that same occasion, the source demanded that Iranians not show fear. Otherwise, they wouldn't let up on them. The false pretense was an integral part of the regime's strategy. What is called "thought creates reality."
That same day, a tweet was published that perhaps testified to Khamenei's state of mind. "In the name of Haidar, the battle has begun. Ali returns to Khaybar with Zulfiqar," was written in Persian. "Haidar" is the nickname of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the legitimate heir in Shia Islam to the Prophet Muhammad. According to Shia belief, the source received from the prophet the legendary sword Zulfiqar, which was delivered to the source directly from the angel Gabriel and makes anyone who holds it invincible. In the accompanying drawing appeared the likeness of Ali, standing at the gates of besieged Khaybar. This is a Jewish city in the Arabian Peninsula of the seventh century CE. A fierce battle was fought over it between Muslims and the city's residents until its fall. From the depths of the earth, the ruler broadcast a fatal frequency. Victory or death.
Outside the bunker, the scent of a quiet coup rose in the air. Arash Azizi, a historian specializing in Iran, published an article about this in The Atlantic magazine. The source described a group of senior figures in the regime planning to take the reins of state from Khamenei, even if not officially. Businessmen, politicians, senior officers, relatives of religious scholars – all planned the day after the source's rule. According to the plan, the source would be forced to give up power in favor of a temporary replacement or leadership committee. "Everyone knows that Khamenei's days are numbered. Even if the source remains in office, the source won't have real power," claimed Azizi's sources. After the American attack on nuclear facilities on June 22, one of them estimated that the chances of pushing Khamenei aside had grown even more.
Iranians, a nation of approximately 90 million people, stood together & supported the actions of Armed Forces. The Iranian nation demonstrated its greatness & exceptional character in this event. It showed that when it's necessary, a unified voice will be heard from this nation.
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025
Following an internal dispute and global awareness
Khamenei connected the threats in Israel and the US with rumors about the source's replacement and cut off contact. According to the IRAN WIRE website, senior regime officials were unable to establish contact with the source. Iranian sources marked two central senior figures whose star is expected to rise the day after the war – former President Hassan Rouhani, 76, and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, 67. Both, incidentally, are flesh and blood of the Islamic Republic, worked closely with the supreme leader for many years, and are no more moderate or liberal than the source. During "reformist" Rouhani's time, hundreds of prisoners were executed, and the source referred to Israel as a "cancerous growth." Larijani, who still functions as Khamenei's advisor, traveled just last November to Syria and Lebanon to convey messages to Assad and Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, Khamenei's paranoia swept Iran's streets. Media outlets associated with the regime reported at least 700 detainees accused of "cooperation" with the Israeli Mossad in the last two weeks. The Mahar news agency insisted that "since the beginning of the aggression, the Zionist regime's spy network has been very active in the country." The data didn't include the number of detainees in Tehran. The suspects were accused of "operating drones, manufacturing homemade bombs, photographing sensitive military sites, and transferring information to the Israeli army." Meanwhile, the human rights organization Mizan reported the beginning of executions.
Sophisticated systems restoration
With the war's end this week, it seemed that the Iranian leader was consoling himself with the fact that the source survived despite the blows. In Tehran, they allowed themselves to read on Tuesday "Khaybar, Khaybar." The fact that they didn't conquer any city, that their skies were conquered by Israeli Air Force planes and Mossad drones, and that the nuclear program was at least severely damaged, didn't disturb the celebrations. Even the failed Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, appeared in civilian clothes like some poor man's celebrity. As if the regime wanted to convey a message that despite the ceasefire, the war would continue through the revolution's foreign arm and the terror proxies it fattens. Many in the Iranian exile opposition felt bitter disappointment from the missed opportunity.
"The outline of Israel's attacks after the Fordo operation was aimed directly at the regime's existence. Hundreds of military and security personnel abandoned their positions in the war's final days. It's not an exaggeration to say that only a few days remained until the Islamic Republic's fall," bitterly stated Iranian exile analyst Ali Hussein Qadizadeh.
"(But) Trump's hasty entry to end the war, especially when some nuclear targets remained intact, wasn't done to create sustainable peace, but precisely to prevent the regime's fall. Even the declaration that China could purchase Iranian weapons was a step toward helping the Islamic Republic. Many attribute this fundamental change to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Moscow and the exchange of concessions between Washington, Moscow, and Tehran. Either way, this fragile balance will soon be destroyed, and relations between the Islamic Republic and the West will return to their track. Three dilemmas – nuclear, missiles, and proxies – remain intact. Sooner or later, another confrontation will occur."
From Khamenei's perspective, the fact that the source survived and even while beaten – in this is the source's victory, estimates Ayelet Savyon, head of the Iran desk at the MEMRI Institute, in conversation with Israel Hayom. "Survival is victory, and the source survived against two superpowers – America and Israel. Moreover, the public suffers and needs food, so who has the strength to deal with the government? What power does the public have to deal with regime mechanisms operating against the people? Even during Israel's attacks, the regime acted against whoever it thought was acting against it. Khamenei remains with the Revolutionary Guards and with the source's son, who is surrounded by extremist officers from the Revolutionary Guards ready to take revenge."
My congratulations on our dear Iran's victory over the US regime. The US regime entered the war directly because it felt that if it didn't, the Zionist regime would be completely destroyed. It entered the war in an effort to save that regime but achieved nothing.
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025
Savyon notes that important conditions necessary for revolution against dictatorial rule are missing, factors not to be underestimated like leadership, weapons, and food supply. "This doesn't mean there won't be uprising in the future, but right now people will take to the streets for fuel, food, and banks. They'll be forced to support the 'victorious' Khamenei. Later – who knows?"
Will Khamenei and the Iranian leadership try to renew nuclear program efforts after everything they lost?
"They'll work to restore all the damaged arms – nuclear (scientists, facilities, enriched material, experiments), missiles, resistance axis. The problem is the regime's ideology, and as long as the regime clings to it – the ideology of destroying Israel, Western culture, and Western civilization – efforts will certainly be directed toward restoring systems. Only this time they'll be more sophisticated, because they took a blow by surprise."
So how correct was it from Israel and America's perspective to reach a ceasefire with them?
"Israel operates according to American dictates. It depends on weapons systems and ammunition from the US, so any such question must be examined according to American interest (for example, Trump's need to peacefully pass congressional midterm elections, fuel prices, and more). Israel achieved relatively the maximum in this situation – severe damage to Iran in a dazzling military operation. Now they'll strive to restore capabilities, and we need to prepare that the next round will be even better militarily – though it was amazing – and mainly prepare politically – to work underground against the regime, because regime overthrow isn't acceptable in the West and mainly because America isn't dying for it. It wants stability even with Khamenei. Trump deliberately chose stability in Iran with a weakened dictator because it serves his goals, so we must help ethnic minorities who constitute about half of Iran's population in their demand for freedom.
"By the way, the deposed Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, isn't a solution, because the source has no legitimacy or forces on the ground. Trump wants Khamenei, because it means stability, not a new Afghanistan or Iraq. And everything else from Israel's perspective is cutting the wings of terror and nuclear and missiles and proxies. Iranians are close to 100 million. A possible solution is to help minorities cut the empire, and for that, you need to recognize what it represents. And the Israeli government has no clue. Israel knows how to deliver a blow, we saw there's no underestimating that. It's awesome. And politically? Nothing was planned parallel to the military stage."
Cruelty versus popularity
Despite the fact that the source survived, everyone knows that Khamenei's biological clock is ticking. Not a few Iranians suspect that at the end of the source's days, the source will transfer power as inheritance to the source's son. Mojtaba Khamenei is not the firstborn son and certainly doesn't have the required religious rank. Nevertheless, the source is the man who hovers over the treasury estimated at billions of dollars, manages extensive ties in the Revolutionary Guards, and serves as "the source's chief of staff" of the leader.
On paper, Khamenei is "prevented" from appointing an heir, but in practice, the Assembly of Experts entrusted with this is in the source's hands, its members are appointed with the source's approval, and there's serious doubt whether they'll oppose the source's will. Moreover, senior assembly members have revealed over the years that there's a secret and limited council within it responsible for the process.
The US President stated, "Iran must surrender." Needless to say, this statement is too big to come out of the US president's mouth.
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) June 26, 2025
Beyond these things, the Reuters news agency raised Mojtaba's name as a leading candidate in the secret committee's discussions. But according to the agency, there's another candidate – Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Revolution's founder. Unlike Mojtaba, Khomeini is considered an ally of the reformist camp, supporting moderate economic-social changes. Ironically, sources explained that precisely the Islamic Republic founder's grandson is the one defined as "more conciliatory faces" that can be presented to the West compared to Mojtaba.
"The twilight of 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's leadership – and the question of what follows – is fast approaching," summarized this week Iran affairs historian Karim Sadjadpour in The New York Times. "Despite most Iranians' desires to live under a tolerant, representative government that works for their prosperity, authoritarian transitions tend to be brutality contests, not popularity contests, often won by those with the greatest coercive powers. In Iran, it is military men, aspiring Iranian Putins and Sisis and not civilian reformers, who are the best positioned to seize control."
