Video: Incident in Bedias village highlights growing tensions as US and Israel consider ending UN peacekeeping mission

On Sunday, Israel Hayom revealed that the United States and Israel are moving to end UNIFIL's mission in south Lebanon. Israel has joined the US position that the UN force – stationed in the region – should conclude its 47-year presence (UNIFIL, stands for United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, was formed in the 1970s). Formed after Operation Litani in 1978, the international contingent has consistently failed to curb the armament of terrorist organizations in the area.

Since the ceasefire with Israel has commenced in December, multiple incidents have unfolded in Shiite villages in south Lebanon – Hezbollah supporters have targeted UNIFIL patrols, even affixing the group's flags to UN vehicles. In certain instances, it was noted that the patrols "operate without an escort from the Lebanese Armed Forces."

Speaking to Sky News, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operation Jean-Pierre Lacroix expressed support for deploying the Lebanese Armed Forces in south Lebanon. He argued that the presence of Israeli forces "impedes the Lebanese army's deployment and the fulfillment of the international community's objectives." He further clarified – "No talks have occurred about cutting international funding for UNIFIL" – and stressed – "Funding decisions rest with the UN Security Council. Our operational structure in south Lebanon remains unchanged. Since 2006, 48 nations have backed our mission in Lebanon – and our presence fosters 'a sense of hope' in the region."

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It was also reported that the head of the committee overseeing the ceasefire agreement, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, will visit Beirut on Wednesday to meet with senior Lebanese officials and discuss the implementation of the parties' commitments.

The strike in Dahiyeh

The briefing followed reports on Monday from sources close to Hezbollah to Al-Hadath, stating that the organization had prevented the Lebanese army from searching a site attacked by Israel in Dahiyeh on Sunday. According to the sources, Hezbollah rejected the army's request, claiming the site was located north of the Litani River and therefore was not included under the obligations of the ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, political sources in Lebanon told the newspaper Ad-Diyar that Israel's strike was also intended as a message to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, indicating Israel's opposition to his approach regarding Hezbollah's weapons. According to these sources, Israel seeks to "maintain its freedom of action" in Lebanon.

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A new Alma Research and Education Center report reveals alarming details about the Lebanese Armed Forces deployed in southern Lebanon, warning of its increasing "Shiitization" and cooperation with Hezbollah. The report questions the force's ability to enforce the ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun attempts to convince the international community that "Only the state will be responsible for security," despite evidence suggesting otherwise. "Our goal is that the state alone will be responsible for national security. That's it, no one besides the state is permitted to carry out its national duty to defend the country and protect the people. There is no one else who is allowed to play this role. When there is an attack on the state of Lebanon, the state will make a decision," Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently said in an interview with the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat. On the surface, the senior figure in the country's leadership is confronting Hezbollah face to face.

Well, not really. Aoun is visiting Saudi Arabia this week, where he is expected to request the renewal of aid to the LAF. The Saudi package previously stood at $3 billion annually and was halted in 2016 when Beirut did not bother to condemn the attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. After all, the patron of Hezbollah, which ruled Lebanon unchallenged. Therefore, Aoun is mobilizing all his rhetorical skills to convince the US and Arab countries that a new era has dawned in the land of cedars: together with the new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and the LAF, he will become a counterweight to Hezbollah.

But hopes are one thing and reality is another. Tal Beeri, head of the research department at the Alma Research and Education Center, casts serious doubt on these statements: "Aoun says what the Americans want him to say, but in the end there is reality, and unfortunately right now it shows other things. I don't see that the LAF is not trying in some part to do its job, but in the end, there are processes and figures that cause it to be unable to perform its tasks."

Indeed, the new report reveals disturbing details about the LAF, the entity that is currently deploying in the south of the country and is supposed to maintain stability. The authors warn of the trend of Shiitization in the LAF, in light of the cessation of mandatory conscription and natural demographic changes in the population. Over the years, there has been a downward trend in the recruitment of young Christians who are considered a relatively strong and well-established population, and on the other hand, there has been an upward trend in the recruitment of young Shiites. In fact, according to the report, there is already a high probability of a Shiite majority in the LAF.

The authors of the document warn that "Commanders, officers, and other soldiers, mainly Shiites, are cooperating with Hezbollah, and allowing it to operate freely and bypass international agreements, for example, 1701." They emphasize that the Shiitization of the LAF neutralizes its ability to serve as a counterweight to the pro-Iranian terrorist organization.

For example, at the original ceasefire expiration date on January 26, the LAF failed to prevent Lebanese civilians from infiltrating areas where the Israel Defense Forces were deployed. The failure stemmed from the LAF's unwillingness and inability and Shiite commanders to confront Hezbollah. Another example is the two infantry brigades 5 and 7, which were deployed in the eastern and western sectors in southern Lebanon. According to the assessment, they are unable to enforce the ceasefire agreement on Hezbollah. Moreover, it is likely that Brigade 7 no longer has a Christian majority as in the past, and there is a much greater weight to Shiite soldiers.

Moreover, the report warns that "The family ties between Hezbollah operatives and LAF soldiers increase the likelihood that Hezbollah will exploit the LAF, especially in southern Lebanon, as a supporting platform, human shield, or even as a direct proxy force. This situation also facilitates the leakage of Western military knowledge and weapons to Hezbollah."

The authors also warn that if the trend of Shiitization is not curbed, "The LAF will continue to undergo a gradual and long-term change. Eventually, this situation could lead to it ceasing to function as a national army separate from sectarian conflicts in Lebanon, and becoming, at least in part, a proxy force of Hezbollah, or even merging with its military forces."

Equipment leaked to Hezbollah

In the past two decades, the US has provided the LAF with aid worth about $3 billion, of which about $750 million was in cash. The report notes that some of the Western equipment and weapons supplied, including anti-tank missiles and surveillance equipment, have leaked to Hezbollah in the past and may continue to leak in the future. "The assumption of the supporters of the LAF in the West (US, France, and Britain) that it can serve as a counterweight to Hezbollah is fundamentally mistaken. The assumption ignores the trends and the containment policy and cooperation of the LAF with Hezbollah during the last 18 years."

The aid included the transfer of Humvees, armored personnel carriers, cannons, light drones, helicopters, light aircraft with attack capabilities, anti-tank missiles, launchers, and more. In total, 85% of the equipment in the LAF is American, and the rest is British, French, or Soviet. Instead of increasing aid, the report proposes a series of steps that Lebanon can implement under international pressure, such as isolating Hezbollah in the internal arena, stopping Iranian aid to the organization, and halting the emigration of non-Shiite communities, which can curb the dangerous change.

Beeri says that on a practical level, they need to ensure that all the Shiite officers whose units are in southern Lebanon are not there: "Joseph Aoun has a great influence in the army and you can't fool him. The Shiite officers need to be transferred to other roles. Units whose commanders are Shiite do not succeed in carrying out their mission properly. The spirit of the Shiite commander permeates. When they come to them with a request from Hezbollah, they assist and cooperate – whether out of necessity or willingly. For the ceasefire agreement to be fulfilled properly, it depends on the anchor of the LAF, and currently, there is a problem. And this problem forces Israel to conduct itself as it does."

In this context, Beeri emphasizes that the impact of the IDF strikes on Hezbollah is significant, but depends on the long term: "The important question is how long it will hold and how long Israel will continue to do this. Another year or another month and it will fizzle out. It's mowing the lawn and it will prevent Hezbollah from regrowing."

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Republican lawmakers in both the House and Senate have been pushing to cut this funding for some time, arguing that US aid should not be sent to an institution known to conduct attacks against Israel on Iran's behalf.

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The original bill, called the Countering Hezbollah in Lebanon's Military Act of 2019, had bipartisan support in both chambers, but House Democrats recently added an amendment to their version of the legislation that negated the funding cut to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

According to the Free Beacon, other Republican-sponsored amendments that would have bolstered the legislation and pushed the LAF to isolate Hezbollah from its forces were also struck down by the Democrat-led House.

Outgoing representative Eliot Engel (D, NY), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, voted to nix segments including one demanding that the LAF "directly confront terrorism and Hezbollah's influence."

The final version of the bill now requires the State Department to issue a report detailing ways in which the United States can stop Hezbollah's smuggling of arms along its border with Israel.

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"It's not the same draft as it was. We would love to see that draft as it is passed over in the Senate," Rep. Lee Zeldin (R, NY), a main sponsor of the legislation, told the Free Beacon.

A Republican source told the Free Beacon that Engel and his staff "bear personal responsibility for emboldening Hezbollah, just as it escalated attacks against Israel and sought to murder Israeli Jews. They chose this exact moment to signal that Democrats will keep money flowing no matter what happens."

A version of this article was originally published by i24NEWS.

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"[US President Donald] Trump is doing everything he can to avoid a military confrontation with Iran," Schenker said, noting that in response to Iranian provocations "the president has preferred to respond with extremely harsh sanctions."

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He added: "The [Iranian] regime has tried withstanding the sanctions while claiming the damage hasn't been too severe. However, the economic situation in Iran is very rough."

Iran's activities, according to Schenker, "are an expression of its frustrations under the heavy pressure, but President Trump has practiced strategic patience and has avoided using military force. But how long will this patience last?"

Schenker's comments fall in line with recent statements by a US official with ties to the administration, as reported by Israel Hayom, whereby there was a considerable chance the US could attack Iran before the presidential elections in the US in another year.

In a related security matter, meanwhile, the US rejected a request from Israel to condition its assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces, which has supported the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah.

According to a State Department spokesperson, the US remains committed to strengthening the capacity of the Lebanese army to secure Lebanon's borders, defend its sovereignty and preserve its stability, and that no Lebanese expenditures or purchases of military materiel has been delayed.

"The United States continues to support the efforts of the Lebanese people to form a new efficient and effective government that will bring economic reform, and an end to endemic corruption," continued the spokesperson. "We have expressed clearly our concerns at violence or provocative actions against protesters, and note efforts by the LAF and other institutions to ensure the rights and safety of the protesters."

"We have confidence in the Lebanese army, and we think they are important partners in the fight against Sunni jihadists," Schenker said at the briefing with Israeli journalists.

Israel has expressed concern that funding that goes to the Lebanese Armed Forces has supported Hezbollah. The LAF, which received $100 million last year from the United States, and Hezbollah are known to have cooperated together.

Jewish Policy Center senior director Shoshana Bryen told Jewish News Syndicate, meanwhile, that "it is important for the State Department to take military aid to Lebanon under review – not least because the government under which the Lebanese Armed Forces operates is dominated by Hezbollah, a US-designated terror organization allied with Iran and pledged to Israel's destruction."

Furthermore, she continued, "as the people of Lebanon demand a government that is not dominated by sectarian interests or by Iran, the LAF has been defending the government from its people, killing at least one demonstrator this week. It is entirely unclear how American arms and training for the LAF furthers stability or peace in the region."

Parts of this article were reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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