A new Alma Research and Education Center report reveals alarming details about the Lebanese Armed Forces deployed in southern Lebanon, warning of its increasing "Shiitization" and cooperation with Hezbollah. The report questions the force's ability to enforce the ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun attempts to convince the international community that "Only the state will be responsible for security," despite evidence suggesting otherwise. "Our goal is that the state alone will be responsible for national security. That's it, no one besides the state is permitted to carry out its national duty to defend the country and protect the people. There is no one else who is allowed to play this role. When there is an attack on the state of Lebanon, the state will make a decision," Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently said in an interview with the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat. On the surface, the senior figure in the country's leadership is confronting Hezbollah face to face.
Well, not really. Aoun is visiting Saudi Arabia this week, where he is expected to request the renewal of aid to the LAF. The Saudi package previously stood at $3 billion annually and was halted in 2016 when Beirut did not bother to condemn the attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. After all, the patron of Hezbollah, which ruled Lebanon unchallenged. Therefore, Aoun is mobilizing all his rhetorical skills to convince the US and Arab countries that a new era has dawned in the land of cedars: together with the new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and the LAF, he will become a counterweight to Hezbollah.
But hopes are one thing and reality is another. Tal Beeri, head of the research department at the Alma Research and Education Center, casts serious doubt on these statements: "Aoun says what the Americans want him to say, but in the end there is reality, and unfortunately right now it shows other things. I don't see that the LAF is not trying in some part to do its job, but in the end, there are processes and figures that cause it to be unable to perform its tasks."
Indeed, the new report reveals disturbing details about the LAF, the entity that is currently deploying in the south of the country and is supposed to maintain stability. The authors warn of the trend of Shiitization in the LAF, in light of the cessation of mandatory conscription and natural demographic changes in the population. Over the years, there has been a downward trend in the recruitment of young Christians who are considered a relatively strong and well-established population, and on the other hand, there has been an upward trend in the recruitment of young Shiites. In fact, according to the report, there is already a high probability of a Shiite majority in the LAF.
The authors of the document warn that "Commanders, officers, and other soldiers, mainly Shiites, are cooperating with Hezbollah, and allowing it to operate freely and bypass international agreements, for example, 1701." They emphasize that the Shiitization of the LAF neutralizes its ability to serve as a counterweight to the pro-Iranian terrorist organization.
For example, at the original ceasefire expiration date on January 26, the LAF failed to prevent Lebanese civilians from infiltrating areas where the Israel Defense Forces were deployed. The failure stemmed from the LAF's unwillingness and inability and Shiite commanders to confront Hezbollah. Another example is the two infantry brigades 5 and 7, which were deployed in the eastern and western sectors in southern Lebanon. According to the assessment, they are unable to enforce the ceasefire agreement on Hezbollah. Moreover, it is likely that Brigade 7 no longer has a Christian majority as in the past, and there is a much greater weight to Shiite soldiers.
Moreover, the report warns that "The family ties between Hezbollah operatives and LAF soldiers increase the likelihood that Hezbollah will exploit the LAF, especially in southern Lebanon, as a supporting platform, human shield, or even as a direct proxy force. This situation also facilitates the leakage of Western military knowledge and weapons to Hezbollah."
The authors also warn that if the trend of Shiitization is not curbed, "The LAF will continue to undergo a gradual and long-term change. Eventually, this situation could lead to it ceasing to function as a national army separate from sectarian conflicts in Lebanon, and becoming, at least in part, a proxy force of Hezbollah, or even merging with its military forces."
Equipment leaked to Hezbollah
In the past two decades, the US has provided the LAF with aid worth about $3 billion, of which about $750 million was in cash. The report notes that some of the Western equipment and weapons supplied, including anti-tank missiles and surveillance equipment, have leaked to Hezbollah in the past and may continue to leak in the future. "The assumption of the supporters of the LAF in the West (US, France, and Britain) that it can serve as a counterweight to Hezbollah is fundamentally mistaken. The assumption ignores the trends and the containment policy and cooperation of the LAF with Hezbollah during the last 18 years."
The aid included the transfer of Humvees, armored personnel carriers, cannons, light drones, helicopters, light aircraft with attack capabilities, anti-tank missiles, launchers, and more. In total, 85% of the equipment in the LAF is American, and the rest is British, French, or Soviet. Instead of increasing aid, the report proposes a series of steps that Lebanon can implement under international pressure, such as isolating Hezbollah in the internal arena, stopping Iranian aid to the organization, and halting the emigration of non-Shiite communities, which can curb the dangerous change.
Beeri says that on a practical level, they need to ensure that all the Shiite officers whose units are in southern Lebanon are not there: "Joseph Aoun has a great influence in the army and you can't fool him. The Shiite officers need to be transferred to other roles. Units whose commanders are Shiite do not succeed in carrying out their mission properly. The spirit of the Shiite commander permeates. When they come to them with a request from Hezbollah, they assist and cooperate – whether out of necessity or willingly. For the ceasefire agreement to be fulfilled properly, it depends on the anchor of the LAF, and currently, there is a problem. And this problem forces Israel to conduct itself as it does."
In this context, Beeri emphasizes that the impact of the IDF strikes on Hezbollah is significant, but depends on the long term: "The important question is how long it will hold and how long Israel will continue to do this. Another year or another month and it will fizzle out. It's mowing the lawn and it will prevent Hezbollah from regrowing."
