The shockwaves created by the two targeted eliminations attributed to Israel  - one in the heart of Dahieh, Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut, and the other in the heart of Tehran - spread across the region, causing a whirlpool of shock and embarrassment, along with a strong sense of humiliation among the Iranians and their proxies in the Lebanese terrorist organization.

Commentators and security experts on all Arab TV channels and social media struggled to understand how Israel managed to locate and surgically strike one of Hezbollah's top military commanders, despite the organization's heightened alert following the massacre in Majdal Shams.

The same applies to the elimination of the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who retired for the night in the private dormitory complex of Revolutionary Guards veterans in Tehran after embracing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In the first hours following the elimination of Haniyeh and his bodyguard inside the secured apartment, the Iranians were still unsure if the missile that hit the apartment was launched from within Iran or outside the country.

It is clear that what increased the shock and embarrassment in Tehran and Beirut was the understanding that what enabled Israel to eliminate the two leaders with perfect timing and location was high-quality intelligence, alongside a very high level of execution.

It's no secret that the Iranians have been aware for years, following numerous assassinations of nuclear scientists and mysterious explosions on their soil, that they are penetrated intelligence-wise and "transparent" to Israeli intelligence. It can now be stated with certainty that even Nasrallah, when he eagerly joined Hamas's assistance as it faced attacks in Gaza, did not anticipate losing more than 500 of his field operatives, in cars, on motorcycles, and in hiding places, due to Israel's excellent intelligence.

On the surface, it seemed last night that the level of humiliation in Beirut's Dahieh and Tehran matched the level of commitment voiced there to retaliate against Israel. Hezbollah immediately clarified after the massacre in Majdal Shams that any disproportionate response from Israel would trigger an identical response from the organization. In the case at hand, an attack in Beirut could lead to an attempt to extend the range of fire toward Haifa, Tel Aviv, and other specific targets.

Even in Iran, despite the fact that it involved a senior Hamas figure and not an Iranian official, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards commanders announced yesterday that "Israel must be severely punished" because "the Palestinian leader's blood was spilled on Iranian soil."

However, Khamenei and Nasrallah now face the same dilemma that Israel faced after the massacre of the children in Majdal Shams: how to create a significant, painful response, but one that allows Israel to "contain" the event without dragging the region into a full-scale war that the Axis of Evil, which includes Iran and its regional proxies, is not currently interested in.

Israel had to eliminate the senior Hezbollah figure in Beirut, and the strike on Haniyeh, the second senior Hamas leader to be eliminated abroad after Saleh Arouri, recalls the series of eliminations of senior members of the "Black September" organization initiated by Israel after the murder of the Israeli athletes in Munich.

The only problem with eliminations such as these is that their dramatic effect is short-lived. They alone will not restore deterrence, resolve the conflict with Hezbollah in the north, or achieve the most urgent and important goal: bringing the hostages back from Gaza. It remains to be seen whether Haniyeh's elimination, who was the main contact with Sinwar in the tunnels, will help expedite or, conversely, delay the deal's execution, as the Qataris claimed last night.

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A long line of mediators has been frantically shuttling back and forth between Jerusalem, Beirut, and other capitals in the West since October in a feverish effort to prevent the current confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah from escalating into a full-fledged war, which could turn into a regional conflagration.

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Among the mediators are the British foreign secretary, France's foreign and defense ministers, and the head of intelligence, as well as the personal envoy of President Emmanuel Macron. The most active among them is Amos Hochstein, the representative of US President Joe Biden, who mediated between Israel and Lebanon on the maritime border issue. He visited us this week met with officials, and will later return to Beirut.

In broad terms, the mediators are proposing an agreement that establishes a ceasefire between the parties, followed by the withdrawal of Hezbollah operatives, including elite units of the Radwan Force northward, to a distance of 10-12 km (8-10 miles) from the border, and significant strengthening and reinforcement of the UNIFIL force and the Lebanese Armed Forces in the south. In other words: the re-implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006 after the Second Lebanon War.

In return, Israel would have to agree to relatively minor border adjustments at about 12 disputed points along the common border. The more complex issues are in the Mount Dov area, known as Sheba Farms, and the village of Ghajar, which was split and only recently reunited under Israel's full control.

As in Gaza, negotiations in Lebanon are not being conducted directly with the terrorist organization. Lebanon, unlike Gaza, is supposedly a sovereign state, but only supposedly. The caretaker government, just like the Qatari government, passes on proposals to Hezbollah, which is de facto in charge, and awaits its decision.

Nasrallah has declared over and over that he will not agree to a ceasefire until fighting in Gaza stops (fortunately he did not demand IDF withdrawal and lifting of the siege), but has signaled that he is open and attentive to any proposal that would stop the skirmishes on the northern border and prevent an all-out war.

There are many reasons for this. The most important one is that Hezbollah was established by the Iranians to protect Iran's (Shiite) interests and serve as an outpost in case it is attacked, but not to be destroyed in a war to save a (Sunni) Palestinian organization. For "Palestine", a few hundred operatives may be sacrificed, but there is no need to commit suicide.

Hezbollah's "willingness" to "listen" to mediators is also related to the fact that although the limited war it is waging against Israel has indeed led to the evacuation of northern settlements and extensive damage – but has also forced more than 100,000 residents, mostly Shiites, to abandon their homes in southern Lebanon.

Another reason Nasrallah has not slammed the door shut is that in any given situation he would emerge as the big winner.

One example: Israel could commit to making border adjustments, perhaps even minor territorial withdrawals, but Hezbollah's ability to start a war against Israel at any given moment would not be affected. He will be able to fire most of the missiles in its possession even from beyond the Litani River, and no force in the world – certainly not an enhanced UNIFIL and the Lebanese army – will be able to prevent the return south of Radwan Force operatives, many of whom are residents of the villages in the area.

Does this mean that Israel should reject the idea of a diplomatic settlement and insist on starting another war in the north? The answer is no. Not yet. A war in the north at some point to remove the Hezbollah threat is inevitable and may be unavoidable shortly if Hezbollah tries to add more demands – for example, an end to IAF reconnaissance flights over Lebanon.

But to launch a war in Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, time is needed not only to soften American opposition, but also to prepare for fighting on more than two fronts, give forces more resting time, replenish stockpiles and ammunition, and above all – to prepare the Israeli home front for the scale of casualties and damage unprecedented.

And until then, it is worthwhile to talk to the Americans about Iran too, and about the day after in Lebanon – including, for example, lifting the Saudi boycott of Sunni leader in Lebanon Saad Hariri, who heads the anti-Hezbollah camp. But this is not easy to do while there is not even a hint of talks with Washington about the day after in Gaza.

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Until last week, Nasrallah remained silent since the October 7 massacre in Gaza, and even when he spoke for the first time tonight on Friday, he bitterly disappointed the murderers in Gaza. They had hoped that he would announce Hezbollah's immediate and complete joining of the campaign, but he did not deliver. The most he said in his speech was to promise that "all options are on the table," and did not add anything else.

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Unless this is part of some ploy – and Hezbollah, we must remember, is now on high alert in Lebanon – the main part of Nasrallah's speech was likely an attempt to discourage Israel from coming down with a pre-emptive strike on his organization. He claimed that this step would be "the stupidest thing that Israel could do in its entire history".

Even his boasting about his "accomplishments" in the limited conflict with Israel along the northern border, such as forcing the IDF to cut down the attacking forces in Gaza, in order to redeploy part of them to the north, show that Nasrallah would have preferred to continue on this path and escalate the situation, as long as the flames remained lower than the ones that lead to an all-out war.

In practice, he also struggled to define two scenarios in which he would escalate the current situation: One, the rate at which the situation in Gaza was developing (for example, if he felt that Hamas was on the verge of defeat) and the second, the way that Israel conducted itself on the northern border, for example, if it inflicted serious harm on Lebanese citizens.

Toward the end of his speech, he said that in the war in Gaza Hamas will come out victorious, despite the destruction and devastation, "just as Lebanon had won in 2006", but forgot that he explicitly said that if he had known how Israel would react then, he would not have been in such a rush to provoke the Second Lebanon War.

Since the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah has mostly been a hero from the bunker. He also made his speech on Friday evening from the bunker. He is well aware of the risks he will take on if he still decides to join the war and it is not totally clear that he believes his own rhetoric when he warns the US of the "response" he is preparing to its rapid deployment of force to the region, including the aircraft carriers.

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Some three weeks after Hamas' murderous onslaught from the Gaza Strip, an order came from Tehran to all its terror proxies in the Middle East: continue trying to target Israel with fire to demonstrate Iran's support for "resistance," but remain below the threshold of war.

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This directive has been meticulously followed by all the components of the evil axis so far. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched drones and ballistic missiles toward Israel, which were intercepted; pro-Iranian militias have attacked US bases in Syria and Iraq, facing retaliatory strikes by F-16 fighter jets; terror elements associated with Iran and Hezbollah in southern Syria's Golan Heights have fired into Israeli territory and have been targeted in response.

In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to launch katyusha rockets at IDF positions and anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli aircraft, causing damage. In an unprecedented move, the organization requested UNIFIL personnel to assist in retrieving the bodies of their slain fighters who were killed by Israeli airstrikes near the border, indicating their concern about further casualties. Despite Israel's strong protest, UNIFIL has been cooperating with this request.

Since October 7, Hassan Nasrallah has not been seen in public, except for a joint photo with senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders, and he has not delivered a speech as is customary. His spokespeople claim he is dedicating all his time to monitoring developments.

As the situation becomes more tense, one can understand the dilemma. If Nasrallah receives an order from Tehran to join the conflict, he will do so. However, for now, he carries the heavy responsibility for what is happening in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their villages in the south; the Lebanese economy is in a dire state, many countries are evacuating their citizens, and all political forces in the country are pressuring him not to join the war in order to prevent the country's total destruction.

But it is not certain that his benefactors in Tehran have settled on what their next move is. The Iranian foreign minister has declared they do not want to be dragged into a regional war, but added they cannot rule out such a scenario and opening new fronts "if there is an escalation in Gaza." In other words, a broad ground invasion by the IDF.

Regional war, one that could escalate to a global war, is one of three scenarios presented by Kamal Kharrazi, former Iranian Foreign Minister and advisor to the Supreme Leader, at a leading Iranian foreign relations research institute. The other two scenarios are Hamas and Israel continuing to fight "until one of them is eliminated," and a protracted war in Gaza where each side continues to receive support, assistance, and backing from external actors.

For now, it appears that the Iranians are leaning toward the third scenario: continued support for Hamas as Hezbollah "harasses" Israel in the north, within the confines of a "limited regional flare-up," without getting into a full-scale confrontation. Reports of Iran attempting to smuggle precise weapons to Hezbollah in Syria, transported on civilian aircraft landing in Syria, may reinforce this interpretation. Essentially, it signifies Tehran and its proxies' willingness to "fight" until the last Hamas terrorist is eliminated.

In the Sunni axis opposed to the Iranian axis, all Muslim countries last week supported the proposal to immediately stop Israel's attacks in Gaza, without mentioning the terrible massacre in the border region.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, stood out, called Israel "insane" for "slaughtering Gaza's residents" and canceling his visit to Israel. Anyone who believed until now that Erdogan, an extremist Muslim leader and supporter of the "Muslim Brotherhood," had changed his attitude and become a friend of Israel should rethink this.

However, the Egyptians, Jordanians, and Saudis also voted in favor of the decision, and there's no need to be surprised. In Cairo and Amman, they despise Hamas, but they are very concerned that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza will provoke protests and riots at home, undermining internal stability. This is the reason for the outspokenness of the Jordanian Queen Rania, who denied the killing of infants in the border settlements. It's also the reason for the seemingly neutral position of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, who still suffers from post-traumatic stress due to the attacks by ISIS, the "Muslim Brothers," and extreme Islamism in Cairo and Sinai.

In Riyadh, there is also restraint. In the social networks of the Arab world, they criticize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and claim that even though he defended Israel, he didn't actually backtrack on his willingness to normalize relations with Jerusalem in exchange for a defense pact with the US, and he is just waiting for the end of the war in Gaza.

A senior Western official who is in close contact with decision-makers in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia told me that none of them, not even Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, will shed a tear if Hamas is wiped off the map. The problem, he says, is that all four leaders have been disappointed in the past by Israel's repeated failure to completely remove the threat of Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south. Now they won't say a word until Israel proves that it can truly do what it promised – to win.

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Two weeks after it succeeded in completely surprising Israel in the abominable murderous attack on the Gaza belt communities on October 7, on Friday Hamas entered the next stage of attempting to wear down Israel using the last card in its pack – that of the soldiers and civilians taken as prisoners and hostages. To attain that goal, it has turned to one Arab state that purports to be a champion of good.

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The credit and the praise that Qatar received just now from Hamas and from the US and other Western states, for its contribution to Friday's release of the two abducted women, is a clear indication that the humanitarian consideration was not the only one in play as far as this particular Gulf state was concerned, one that ideologically identified with and openly hosts the Hamas politburo on its soil, but also the desire to help the terrorist organization to survive.

It is probably safe to assume that the coordination between Qatar and Hamas, which led to the release of the two hostages, was intended to grant the terrorist organization several advantages: firstly, to delay and postpone as far as possible the IDF ground maneuver into the Gaza Strip, based on the claim that should the maneuver go ahead it would delay or thwart the release of the other hostages. Hamas estimates that a delay of the IDF ground maneuver would not only be an additional burden to the Israeli economy, which is currently struggling to uphold a colossal reserve force on the Gaza Strip border, but would also buy some additional time for the organization to prepare for it.

An additional advantage: Hamas believes that Qatar's promise to aid the US in its efforts to release additional hostages will enable it to increase the international pressure on Israel to agree to a significant increase of the humanitarian aid, which commencing yesterday, began to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Border Crossing. Hamas not only seeks food and medication, but above all it needs to replenish the supply of fuel that would enable it to operate the power plant along with considerable parts of its military array that have not yet been damaged.

Hamas also sees two additional advantages in the slow, drawn-out and controlled release of the civilians it abducted (there is no chance of it agreeing to return IDF officers and soldiers without an overall deal to ensure the release of thousands of its security prisoners held in Israel): an urgent face lift to the image that has rightly been attributed to it as an abhorrent murderous organization responsible for carrying out abominations in the style of ISIS, together with some extra time in order to garner support on the Arab street against Israel. Israel faces an agonizingly tough dilemma. The human and completely justified desire to afford top priority to the safe return of the hostages above all else, in parallel to the US pressure to delay the ground maneuver until US citizens are released along with all the other foreign nationals, are considerations that it must take into account when deciding on the timing and scope of the ground maneuver.

Hezbollah is playing with fire

In the meantime, Hezbollah is also playing its part along Israel's northern border in order to relieve some of the pressure from Hamas and to counter claims against it that it has abandoned Gaza. The Lebanese Shi'ite terrorist organization is escalating the confrontation on a daily basis by launching advanced Russian Kornet ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) against the IDF outposts, leading to a number of Israeli casualties and damage. Having said that, the organization continues to convey contradictory messages. Lebanon's concerned prime minister, Najib Mikati, heard from Nasrallah and his entourage that this is still basically part of the desire "to grind down" Israel and "keep it occupied" rather than a decision, which the organization's leadership has yet to make, to launch an all-out war. On the other hand, Nasrallah's deputy, announced only last night that Hezbollah will do all in its power to ensure the "resistance's victory."

Senior officials in Lebanon claim that Nasrallah is well aware of the dangers to his organization should they decide to enter the fray: the element of surprise is no longer of relevance, Israel is prepared for battle and has evacuated a large part of the communities along its northern borders, and the US has promised to intervene if Hezbollah attacks.

It is also important to understand something that is no less important to Nasrallah, who regards himself and Hezbollah as part of Lebanon's fabric: Almost two thirds of the residents of the towns and villages in southern Lebanon have already fled their homes, moving northward due to fear of being caught up in the crossfire and not really relying on Hezbollah to protect them. And still, the daily exchange of fire, the ensuing loss of life on both sides of the border, are a sure-fire recipe for miscalculations that could easily lead to an out-and-out conflagration.

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No sooner had the announcement of the maritime deal with Lebanon than the politicians started squabbling over it, with both vile criticism and heavy praise exchanged over the ether. But the truth is that both sides are just divorced from reality. They are all true to one thing: There are elections coming up in two weeks' time. Those who have called the deal historic because it could pave the way to normalizing relations are wrong; and those who say that it is a humiliating instrument of surrender to Hezbollah that would deny Israel billions of dollars in gas revenue that will now go to terrorism, are also very wrong. 

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The truth of the matter – and Lebanon will concede as much – is that this is a worthy agreement that serves both sides. Those who say that the 10-year dispute could have produced a better deal are just selling you a lie. It is also true that placing the Karish drilling rig in its current location made it impossible for Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to find a face-saving exit ramp from his threats without this deal. 

The deal, put simply, prevents a conflagration with Hezbollah that would have erupted once Israel would begin extracting gas from Karish. There is no guarantee that the hostilities would then not have devolved into an all-out war. While Israel could have very well won that war and Nasrallah eliminated, the cost – especially to Israel's homefront – would have been enormous. 

Those listening to Nasrallah's speech earlier in the week would have gotten the feeling that he was relieved that he would no longer have to deliver on his threats.

This is not a historic deal and not the first step toward normalization. Lebanese officials have insisted on calling it an arrangement of understanding and have vowed to sign it separately and without meeting Israeli officials at the border crossing. They will then hand it over to the US, which will then deposit it with the UN. They have also stressed that the buoy line currently demarcating the territorial waters near the coast is just a "de-facto" line and that the agreement does not make it the internationally recognized border, despite Israel referring to it as a permanent line. 

But in the grand scheme of things, it is still a good deal and it officially stipulates that the newly agreed demarcation will become a "permanent maritime boundary" and that Lebanon was ready to "conclude a permanent and equitable resolution regarding its maritime dispute with Israel." Neither does the deal significantly prevent Israel from getting its fair share of the revenue from the gas deal and provides security for both countries. That's why there is no reason to believe that Hezbollah will be the only one to reap the financial rewards from the gas. 

There is also an added plus: The successful US mediation. The guarantees the Biden administration provided both sides, however toothless, underscore the renewed US presence in the Middle East after it had been long been neglected and handed to Vladimir Putin. 

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The negotiations over the nuclear deal with Iran are now entering their final stretch. The Iranians have asked for a few more days for "consultations" and may engage in more footdragging before they give their final answer to the latest proposals. 

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Over the past 24 hours, the Qataris have once again entered the fray in order to help tie loose ends and help both sides take the final few steps to the finish line. Assistant Foreign Minister for Regional Affairs Dr. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al Khulaifi has left on an urgent mission to Tehran to meet with Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, who is the head of the Iranian delegation to the Vienna talks. The Qatari official also wasted no time in calling the European Union coordinator for the talks so that he could brief the Americans.

What is truly fascinating in this story is that there is already a draft that is ready for all sides to declare a new deal. It includes gradual sanction relief in return for a pause in uranium enrichment and mothballing the advanced centrifuges. After Iran made the "concession" of dropping the demand of removing the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department's list of terrorist organizations, there is still one issue that has not been resolved: the ongoing International Atomic Energy Agency probes on suspicious nuclear activity in Iran. There appears to be deadlock there. 

While this issue could seem trivial, Iran has refused to provide answers that would help close those cases, including on the reasons why uranium traces were found in three sites. Tehran has so far remained hunkered down in its refusal to cooperate and has even gone beyond that by insisting the investigations are shut before any deal takes effect. 

It is easy to see why Iran has taken this intransigent approach. Any explanation on those suspicious traces would be tantamount to an admission that it had been lying to the world and deceived it. This would make it a perennial suspect on such issues earning the world's designation as a country that could very well deceive its way to a bomb. 

Mossad Director David Barnea is right that Iran has been lying to everyone, and everyone knows that. But he was wrong to publicly criticize the Biden administration for re-entering a deal that is based on deception. This was a mistake on Barnea's part not because it is not his role to criticize the US administration, but because such criticism won't be of any help. 

Israel, despite its many efforts, was unable to stop the negotiations and the deal in 2015. Those who claim that trying harder this time would derail the deal are both wrong and misleading. The main focus on Israel's activity vis-a-vis the US should be about coordinating with the administration on how to bolster the inspections in Iran so that violations could be detected in real-time, as well as coordinating a possible military response if such breaches are found. The deal may grant Iran a "license" to a bomb by 2031, but the ongoing threat posed by Iran's conventional capabilities will increase right after a deal is completed due to the billions of dollars that would fill Iran's coffers and allow it to upgrade its missile production capabilities and terrorist endeavors. 

It is not necessary to look all the way to Tehran to see the negative impact of the deal. The very fact that the deal is nearing has already provided tailwind to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who has been ratcheting up the threats on Israel almost daily over the Karish gas field dispute, which is solvable. 

Hezbollah does not pose an existential threat on Israel but we should not discount the potential damage that tens of thousands of missiles can inflict on Israel should hostilities erupt on the northern border. On this matter, coordination with the US is very important as well on the Israeli response if Hezbollah makes another mistake by launching an attack.  

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The calming messages from Washington that a final nuclear deal with Iran is still far off, seem to be more a method of desensitizing Israel and less of an indication than there are serious disputes between the US and Iran that cannot be overcome.

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The reason is simple – both sides want the deal and are not interested in passing the point of no return. One needs to listen to what is being said in Tehran to understand how the Iranians have managed to skip lightly over what the US presented as an important success in the negotiations – Iran supposedly giving up its demand that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from the US list of state terrorist entities.

First of all, the Iranians are now saying that had never been a dealbreaker. Second, the Americans have promised to continue discussing the subject after a deal is signed. Third, as far as they are concerned, "As long as the IRGC remains on the Americans' list of terrorist organizations, CENTCOM will remain on our." That's not a joke.

The sad part of the story is that the trick the Iranians pulled about the IRGC was seen by the Americans as justification for signing the new deal. What's even sadder is that the sanctions applied and that will be applied against the IRGC haven't prevented it from threatening to undermine regimes and individuals in the Middle East and beyond it, both by support and actions.

On the whole, the true test of the nuclear deal before it is signed has nothing to do with the IRGC, but with three major issues we still don't know if the deal has resolved. First, whether it brings Iran back in the field of uranium enrichment, where it has both reached a high level and started removing it from its borders; second, whether the deal clearly mandates that Iran stop its advanced centrifuges and increases oversight of them; and third, whether the Americans demanded and Iran has agreed to extend the term of the deal until the date when all restrictions on its nuclear activity will be lifted.

Israel and the rest of the negotiators on the American and European sides agree on one thing – Iran is not to be trusted. The proof of that is that they agreed to drop their demand about the IRGC, but not their demand that an international investigation into enriched uranium discovered at three nuclear sites be stopped. If they don't intend to fool anyone, what do they have to hide?

Israel has no real way of stopping the Biden administration if it decides to go into the bad Iran deal with eyes wide open. Israel needs to focus its efforts on ensuring that it has American backing and freedom of operation against Iran, if it turns out that Tehran is moving ahead toward a bomb. The US Congress can delay the removal of sanctions on Iran, and the Republicans will be trying to regain control of it in the mid-term elections.

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The transitional government led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid passed the test of a Gaza conflict with flying colors, but it cannot afford to rest on its laurels.

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The next – and arguably more arduous – challenge is just around the corner when the Karish offshore rig goes online in a few weeks and explores natural gas off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threats to target the rig unless Lebanon's "full rights" in the field of gas production are guaranteed, led to the acceleration of the US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon over their disputed maritime border, with the aim of concluding them before drilling began.

US Special Envoy and Coordinator of International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and Israel last week, but while all sides are cautiously optimistic, neither is confident negotiations will conclude in the narrow timeframe left.

Adding pressure is the fact that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group that wields immense political power in Lebanon, has demanded to see the draft agreement before it is signed.

Greece, which is co-owner of the rig, tried to find out whether Nasrallah was serious about targeting Karish and was told it would be best if it just removed it as Hezbollah "cannot guarantee" what fate would befall it.

Hochstein has informed the Lebanese that Israel "has no intention whatsoever to surrender to Nasrallah's extortion," but this does not mean his threats are being taken lightly.

The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet discussed the issue last week and it is clear to all that Hezbollah is in no way similar to Islamic Jihad: not in the massive number of rockets it possesses – over 100,000, according to IRGC officers who commented on the issue last week; not in the arsenal's range and accuracy, and not on issues of command and control.

Ostensibly, there are at least two reasons why Nasrallah should refrain from embarking on a military adventure vis-à-vis Israel.

Hezbollah's status is at an all-time low in Lebanon, where the terrorist group is facing growing criticism over the destruction of the country and the terrible suffering of millions of civilians who are struggling to survive.

Moreover, it should look to the IDF's achievements during Operation Breaking Dawn, where the extensive counterterrorism campaign against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, demonstrated an impressive improvement is precision strikes and the interception rate of the Iron Dome defense system.

The issue with Hezbollah is that no one can be sure as to whether Nasrallah has learned his lesson in 2006 and will be wary of provoking war with Israel.

He may believe that fire at Karish would come down to a limited conflict with Israel that would allow him to claim some sort of victory, as the PIJ has. But that would be a miscalculation; and it is also the Lapid government's next test.

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The terrorist leaders of Hezbollah in the north and the Palestinians in the south have a strong affinity for issuing menacing equations. Nasrallah's latest was that if Lebanon doesn't get what it wants in maritime border negotiations, Israel won't be able to drill for natural gas either. Palestinian terrorists have also chimed in, warning once that "if there are riots on the Temple Mount, we will launch missiles from Gaza; and another time that "if Israel continues arresting Islamic Jihad operatives in Jenin, we will respond with anti-tank fire on citizens near Gaza."

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It was enough to see the concern on the face of Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Nakhala – upon being informed during a television interview in Tehran that the IDF had launched Operation Breaking Dawn – to understand his sudden realization that his equation had shattered.  The arrests in Jenin hadn't stopped, and instead of receiving his terms of surrender in the south, Israel eliminated one of his senior commanders and other terrorists in Gaza in a brilliant feint.

As the interview went on, his second trusted equation fell to pieces as well, whereby almost any time Israel attacks Gaza, all of the terrorist organizations – chief among them Hamas – rally to respond in unison. As the Islamic Jihad leader was assuring on air that "we are all coordinated and we are all in one fox hole," Hamas didn't fire one single rocket.

As of Saturday night, Islamic Jihad mouthpieces tried providing explanations to somehow conceal their two-fold embarrassment. One spokesman, according to Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen network, said the commander of Islamic Jihad's northern region in Gaza wasn't killed in his safe house due to superb intelligence acquired by Israel, but rather because he was intentionally deceived into going there by the Egyptian mediator in order "to finalize a cease-fire agreement with Israel" – implying, of course, "treasonous collaboration" between Cairo and Jerusalem.

In another statement, a spokesman said Hamas was completely in step with Islamic Jihad and a full partner in the rocket attacks against Israel, but that it was concealing this so as "not to give Israel an alibi for expanding the scope of its attacks in Gaza." It's highly doubtful there is any truth to either of these versions, but they aptly reflect Islamic Jihad's distress over being alone in this fight.

It's safe to assume that Hamas is not happy in a situation where it is being accused of sitting on the fence. On the other hand, it isn't entirely certain that it also doesn't see the "positive" aspects, from its perspective, of the Israeli offensive: putting Islamic Jihad in its place, sending it a message that it isn't allowed to plot terrorist attacks against Israel without Hamas' approval, and making it obey they joint decisions that are made only in Gaza, not in Tehran.

However, it is also time to try bringing this operation to a conclusion, to minimize the pressure being put on Hamas to join the fray, fully exploit the effect of eliminating senior Islamic Jihad commanders and dismantling its equations of intimidation, and preserving a high casualty ratio between combatants and non-combatants.

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