The shockwaves created by the two targeted eliminations attributed to Israel - one in the heart of Dahieh, Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut, and the other in the heart of Tehran - spread across the region, causing a whirlpool of shock and embarrassment, along with a strong sense of humiliation among the Iranians and their proxies in the Lebanese terrorist organization.
Commentators and security experts on all Arab TV channels and social media struggled to understand how Israel managed to locate and surgically strike one of Hezbollah's top military commanders, despite the organization's heightened alert following the massacre in Majdal Shams.
The same applies to the elimination of the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who retired for the night in the private dormitory complex of Revolutionary Guards veterans in Tehran after embracing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In the first hours following the elimination of Haniyeh and his bodyguard inside the secured apartment, the Iranians were still unsure if the missile that hit the apartment was launched from within Iran or outside the country.
It is clear that what increased the shock and embarrassment in Tehran and Beirut was the understanding that what enabled Israel to eliminate the two leaders with perfect timing and location was high-quality intelligence, alongside a very high level of execution.
It's no secret that the Iranians have been aware for years, following numerous assassinations of nuclear scientists and mysterious explosions on their soil, that they are penetrated intelligence-wise and "transparent" to Israeli intelligence. It can now be stated with certainty that even Nasrallah, when he eagerly joined Hamas's assistance as it faced attacks in Gaza, did not anticipate losing more than 500 of his field operatives, in cars, on motorcycles, and in hiding places, due to Israel's excellent intelligence.
On the surface, it seemed last night that the level of humiliation in Beirut's Dahieh and Tehran matched the level of commitment voiced there to retaliate against Israel. Hezbollah immediately clarified after the massacre in Majdal Shams that any disproportionate response from Israel would trigger an identical response from the organization. In the case at hand, an attack in Beirut could lead to an attempt to extend the range of fire toward Haifa, Tel Aviv, and other specific targets.
Even in Iran, despite the fact that it involved a senior Hamas figure and not an Iranian official, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards commanders announced yesterday that "Israel must be severely punished" because "the Palestinian leader's blood was spilled on Iranian soil."
However, Khamenei and Nasrallah now face the same dilemma that Israel faced after the massacre of the children in Majdal Shams: how to create a significant, painful response, but one that allows Israel to "contain" the event without dragging the region into a full-scale war that the Axis of Evil, which includes Iran and its regional proxies, is not currently interested in.
Israel had to eliminate the senior Hezbollah figure in Beirut, and the strike on Haniyeh, the second senior Hamas leader to be eliminated abroad after Saleh Arouri, recalls the series of eliminations of senior members of the "Black September" organization initiated by Israel after the murder of the Israeli athletes in Munich.
The only problem with eliminations such as these is that their dramatic effect is short-lived. They alone will not restore deterrence, resolve the conflict with Hezbollah in the north, or achieve the most urgent and important goal: bringing the hostages back from Gaza. It remains to be seen whether Haniyeh's elimination, who was the main contact with Sinwar in the tunnels, will help expedite or, conversely, delay the deal's execution, as the Qataris claimed last night.
