No sooner had the announcement of the maritime deal with Lebanon than the politicians started squabbling over it, with both vile criticism and heavy praise exchanged over the ether. But the truth is that both sides are just divorced from reality. They are all true to one thing: There are elections coming up in two weeks' time. Those who have called the deal historic because it could pave the way to normalizing relations are wrong; and those who say that it is a humiliating instrument of surrender to Hezbollah that would deny Israel billions of dollars in gas revenue that will now go to terrorism, are also very wrong.
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The truth of the matter – and Lebanon will concede as much – is that this is a worthy agreement that serves both sides. Those who say that the 10-year dispute could have produced a better deal are just selling you a lie. It is also true that placing the Karish drilling rig in its current location made it impossible for Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to find a face-saving exit ramp from his threats without this deal.
The deal, put simply, prevents a conflagration with Hezbollah that would have erupted once Israel would begin extracting gas from Karish. There is no guarantee that the hostilities would then not have devolved into an all-out war. While Israel could have very well won that war and Nasrallah eliminated, the cost – especially to Israel's homefront – would have been enormous.
Those listening to Nasrallah's speech earlier in the week would have gotten the feeling that he was relieved that he would no longer have to deliver on his threats.
This is not a historic deal and not the first step toward normalization. Lebanese officials have insisted on calling it an arrangement of understanding and have vowed to sign it separately and without meeting Israeli officials at the border crossing. They will then hand it over to the US, which will then deposit it with the UN. They have also stressed that the buoy line currently demarcating the territorial waters near the coast is just a "de-facto" line and that the agreement does not make it the internationally recognized border, despite Israel referring to it as a permanent line.
But in the grand scheme of things, it is still a good deal and it officially stipulates that the newly agreed demarcation will become a "permanent maritime boundary" and that Lebanon was ready to "conclude a permanent and equitable resolution regarding its maritime dispute with Israel." Neither does the deal significantly prevent Israel from getting its fair share of the revenue from the gas deal and provides security for both countries. That's why there is no reason to believe that Hezbollah will be the only one to reap the financial rewards from the gas.
There is also an added plus: The successful US mediation. The guarantees the Biden administration provided both sides, however toothless, underscore the renewed US presence in the Middle East after it had been long been neglected and handed to Vladimir Putin.
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