Two weeks after it succeeded in completely surprising Israel in the abominable murderous attack on the Gaza belt communities on October 7, on Friday Hamas entered the next stage of attempting to wear down Israel using the last card in its pack – that of the soldiers and civilians taken as prisoners and hostages. To attain that goal, it has turned to one Arab state that purports to be a champion of good.
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The credit and the praise that Qatar received just now from Hamas and from the US and other Western states, for its contribution to Friday's release of the two abducted women, is a clear indication that the humanitarian consideration was not the only one in play as far as this particular Gulf state was concerned, one that ideologically identified with and openly hosts the Hamas politburo on its soil, but also the desire to help the terrorist organization to survive.
It is probably safe to assume that the coordination between Qatar and Hamas, which led to the release of the two hostages, was intended to grant the terrorist organization several advantages: firstly, to delay and postpone as far as possible the IDF ground maneuver into the Gaza Strip, based on the claim that should the maneuver go ahead it would delay or thwart the release of the other hostages. Hamas estimates that a delay of the IDF ground maneuver would not only be an additional burden to the Israeli economy, which is currently struggling to uphold a colossal reserve force on the Gaza Strip border, but would also buy some additional time for the organization to prepare for it.
Video: 'It's a massacre' - Israeli kibbutz highlights destruction of Hamas attack / Credit: Reuters
An additional advantage: Hamas believes that Qatar's promise to aid the US in its efforts to release additional hostages will enable it to increase the international pressure on Israel to agree to a significant increase of the humanitarian aid, which commencing yesterday, began to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Border Crossing. Hamas not only seeks food and medication, but above all it needs to replenish the supply of fuel that would enable it to operate the power plant along with considerable parts of its military array that have not yet been damaged.
Hamas also sees two additional advantages in the slow, drawn-out and controlled release of the civilians it abducted (there is no chance of it agreeing to return IDF officers and soldiers without an overall deal to ensure the release of thousands of its security prisoners held in Israel): an urgent face lift to the image that has rightly been attributed to it as an abhorrent murderous organization responsible for carrying out abominations in the style of ISIS, together with some extra time in order to garner support on the Arab street against Israel. Israel faces an agonizingly tough dilemma. The human and completely justified desire to afford top priority to the safe return of the hostages above all else, in parallel to the US pressure to delay the ground maneuver until US citizens are released along with all the other foreign nationals, are considerations that it must take into account when deciding on the timing and scope of the ground maneuver.
Hezbollah is playing with fire
In the meantime, Hezbollah is also playing its part along Israel's northern border in order to relieve some of the pressure from Hamas and to counter claims against it that it has abandoned Gaza. The Lebanese Shi'ite terrorist organization is escalating the confrontation on a daily basis by launching advanced Russian Kornet ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) against the IDF outposts, leading to a number of Israeli casualties and damage. Having said that, the organization continues to convey contradictory messages. Lebanon's concerned prime minister, Najib Mikati, heard from Nasrallah and his entourage that this is still basically part of the desire "to grind down" Israel and "keep it occupied" rather than a decision, which the organization's leadership has yet to make, to launch an all-out war. On the other hand, Nasrallah's deputy, announced only last night that Hezbollah will do all in its power to ensure the "resistance's victory."
Senior officials in Lebanon claim that Nasrallah is well aware of the dangers to his organization should they decide to enter the fray: the element of surprise is no longer of relevance, Israel is prepared for battle and has evacuated a large part of the communities along its northern borders, and the US has promised to intervene if Hezbollah attacks.
It is also important to understand something that is no less important to Nasrallah, who regards himself and Hezbollah as part of Lebanon's fabric: Almost two thirds of the residents of the towns and villages in southern Lebanon have already fled their homes, moving northward due to fear of being caught up in the crossfire and not really relying on Hezbollah to protect them. And still, the daily exchange of fire, the ensuing loss of life on both sides of the border, are a sure-fire recipe for miscalculations that could easily lead to an out-and-out conflagration.
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