The ultra-Orthodox parties threatened over the weekend to pull out of the coalition and trigger early elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he will not change the current language of the military conscription bill.
The bill, an amendment to Israel's Defense Service Law seeking to legally anchor exemptions afforded to ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, has sparked several coalition crises in the past, most recently in March.
The issue, which has dogged Israeli politics for years, revolves around Israel's mandatory military draft, which many in the ultra-Orthodox community believe should be secondary to Torah study. Secular Israelis, however, are opposed to shouldering the burden without the contribution of a substantial sector in Israeli society.
This time, too, Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism said it would exit the coalition unless their demand for a blanket exemption from service for yeshiva students is met.
While Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party, has been less hawkish on the issue, political analysts told Israel Hayom that the party is likely to follow United Torah Judaism's lead and, barring a change in legislation, it will also pull out of the coalition.
The haredi parties have 13 Knesset seats between them. In the wake of Yisrael Beytenu's exit from the coalition, which has left it with a narrow majority of only 61 out of 120 MKs, a decision by United Torah Judaism and Shas to bolt will trigger a snap election, something Netanyahu wishes to avoid at this time.
Still, sources close to the prime minister told Israel Hayom that his "mind is made up" and that his decision on the matter "is final."
United Torah Judaism insiders said that despite the resignation threats by party chairman Yakov Litzman, the final decision on whether the party will pull out of the coalition will be made by its Council of Torah Sages, which is expected to rule on the matter later this week.
An ultra-Orthodox political source told Israel Hayom that "all 13 haredi MKs will vote against this bill, and the only question is whether [Deputy Health] Minister Litzman resigns at a time when the coalition is already liable to fall apart.
"Many in the coalition, including MKs in Kulanu and Habayit Hayehudi, believe that in the current situation, it [the coalition] won't last more than two months anyway," he said.
"The only question is whether the haredi parties want to be the ones to trigger early elections and make the conscription bill the focus of the next election campaign, thus bolstering [Yesh Atid leader Yair] Lapid, or would they prefer to bide their time and wait for the government to fall apart over something else. That's what the rabbis will have to rule on," he noted.
Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, now a member of the opposition, announced he would vote in favor of the bill, drafted during his tenure as defense minister, but "only if not so much as a comma of it is changed."
Lapid has echoed the sentiment, saying his party will vote for the current version of the bill but will oppose any changes to it.
