The meeting between North Korean President Kim Jong Un, otherwise known as the rocket man, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in is more than an average feel-good news item. It is a turning point in the global geopolitical alignment. Almost all the credit goes to U.S. President Donald Trump. The leaders of the two Koreas are officially ending their countries' 65-year-old war and have set a mutual goal they aim to reach through continued negotiations – denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The next stage will be a meeting between the rocket man and the king of tweets, Trump – reviled by the journalistic punditry and American-international foreign policy establishments. About a year and a half ago, I interviewed one of the more renowned experts on the Iranian nuclear issue and the comprehensive policies toward Tehran, Mark Dubowitz, from the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
When comparing North Korea and Iran, Dubowitz said at the time, the Iranians were the more dangerous of the two. The main reason for this, he said, was that North Korea lacks global pretensions and is preoccupied with its own survival. Throughout this entire period, Kim Jong Un has appeared more menacing, as someone poised to plunge the world into nuclear war. It now appears clear that North Korea is the lesser problem. President Trump, by transcending the accepted norms of the American establishment, created a new situation presently conducive to fundamentally resolving – albeit still not completely or assuredly – the North Korean threat.
The success on the Korean front has to affect the Middle East as well, even though it is liable to ruin the appetite some pundits have for war with Iran. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are perceived as credible when it comes to their threats and actions. Trump has brought Islamic State to the brink of extermination – another achievement for which he receives no credit. He has attacked twice in Syria, displaying an ability to quickly rally Western coalitions for both offensive and defensive purposes.
Trump's position would, of course, be better without the scandals at home and the Russian conspiracy investigations. It would make it easier for him to close a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet this, too, will not deter Trump, making it exceedingly likely that a scenario similar to the Korean Peninsula will unfold with Iran and its nuclear and imperialistic regional ambitions.
French President Emmanuel Macron is now the unofficial leader of the European Union. His unexpected alliance with Trump is proving effective. They will now push toward two parallel goals: an addendum to the nuclear deal with Iran and a deal with Russia and Iran to contain the latter's regional expansionism. This is within reach. Trump already intimated during his joint press conferences with Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week that he probably will not withdraw the U.S. from Iranian nuclear deal at this point. In exchange, the French and Germans will work on an agreement targeting Iran's ballistic missile program and the nuclear deal's problematic expiration clause.
