For weeks, the defense establishment's attention was focused on the northern sector, given the crisis with Russia over the downing of one of its planes by Syrian air defenses trying to counter an Israeli airstrike and concerns the balance of power vis-à-vis Iran in Syrian and Hezbollah in Lebanon was at a tipping point. Recent events, however, reminded everyone that the really volatile sectors were Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Sunday's terrorist attack in the Barkan Industrial Park in Samaria, in which Ashraf Walid Suleiman Naalwa, 23, a former employee of the Alon Group facility in the park murdered Kim Levengrond Yehezkel, 28, and Ziv Hajbi, 35, and wounded Sara Vaturi, 54, dealt a particularly gruesome blow to what until then was an isle of sanity, a place where West Bank Palestinians had the opportunity to earn a good living and Israeli-Palestinian coexistence seemed feasible.
Some 130,000 Palestinians have work permits allowing them to enter Israel. About 30,000 of them are employed in industrial parks like Barkan and each of them has had to undergo an extensive security screening process prior to obtaining their work permit.
As a rule, the system works, as cases where Palestinians who have work permits are involved in terrorist activity are rare for one simple reason: They are far more preoccupied with earning a living that with politics or ideology.
The math is simple: Some 2 million Palestinians reside in the West Bank. Those who have work permits in Israel provide for about 20% of the population there. Add to that the taxes Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and you find that over 50% of West Bank Palestinians rely on this combination to sustain them.
This is also what keeps the Palestinian Authority in check – it has no alternative source of income, especially given the recent cuts in American aid.
This is the logic at the heart of the Israeli decision to establish industrial parks the likes of Barkan. It is cost-effective for factory owners, it saves the defense establishment the need to deal with Palestinians entering Israel, and it provides the Palestinians with the chance to earn a decent living, thus keeping them out of the cycle of violence.
This logic has so far proven itself, as Sunday's shooting was the first terrorist attack in Barkan in its 35 years.
The park's illusion of idyllic coexistence is why Naalwa was able to easily enter the compound with a concealed weapon. Prolonged, uninterrupted routine tends to dull the senses, resulting in lax security. This stands to change, as the IDF announced that, in the wake of the attack, it plans to review and revise security procedures in all the industrial parks in Judea and Samaria.
The Palestinians are those who end up paying the price: It takes them longer to get to work and back home, and each of them is perceived as a potential terrorist.
As of Thursday evening, Naalwa remains at large, the subject of a massive manhunt. That notwithstanding, this was a case of a severe intelligence failure. Naalwa wrote a Facebook post detailing his intentions and made a will, indicating he did not expect to come out of the attack alive. This should have raised a red flag.
Over 4,000 suspected Palestinian terrorists have been detained in the West Bank since the beginning of the year. Some 1,000 were affiliated with a known terrorist group and the rest were lone wolves, like Naalwa. The fact that he slipped through the cracks proves, once again, that there is no such thing as 100% success when it comes to counterterrorism.
The weapon used in the shooting is a different story. The investigation so far indicated that Naalwa used a simple, improvised "Carlo" submachine gun, illegally manufactured across the West Bank by the hundreds and fashioned after the Swedish Carl Gustav semi-automatic rifle.
It is unknown at this time how Naalwa obtained the weapon, which sells for up to 7,000 shekels ($1,900). Over the past month alone, the IDF and Shin Bet security agency have seized over 350 such guns since the beginning of the year – 100 of them over the past month – but this problem is far from being solved, for the simple reason that the demand outweighs the supply.
True, these plain weapons fall short of the range and efficiency of standard rifles, but they are more than enough to kill.
The defense establishment has to step up its efforts on this matter. This interest is shared by the Palestinian security forces as well, as these illegal weapons may eventually be turned on them.
Unlike the antagonistic and contrarian Palestinian leadership, the cooperation between the Israeli and Palestinian security forces is practical and effective. Both parties understand the extent of the damage caused by the Barkan shooting and can see its impact stretches beyond the scene and the victims.
Ten Israelis have been murdered in terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria since the beginning of the year. The defense establishment is focused on preventing this from becoming another wave of terrorism, which would be exceedingly more difficult to quell.
So far, the combination of extensive Israeli efforts, the necessary cooperation of the Palestinian security forces, and an overt reluctance on the part of the Palestinians to take part in another violent struggle, have rendered this effort successful. This is also why, despite the Barkan attack, it will continue to be business as usual there and in other industrial parks in Judea and Samaria. Israel understands there is no other alternative at this time.
Nearing a boiling point
Meanwhile, tensions in the Gaza Strip are rising. After a few relatively quiet weeks, escalation is on the horizon, as Hamas' border riot campaign, which appeared to be waning, is again picking up speed.
Hamas calls the weekly riots, which see thousands of Palestinians torch tires, hurl rocks and explosives at IDF troops and try to breach the security fence, "protests," mounted as part of the Palestinians' "popular resistance." Israel sees it as straight up terrorism. This dissonance is in the heart of the equation.
The IDF has been excoriated for its "soft" approach to the border riots. Some of the criticism has been political, the other comes from the residents of the Gaza-vicinity communities. Living with the uncertainty of looming terrorism after years of peace and quiet is undoubtedly daunting, but the numbers don't lie: Over the past six months only one Israeli - a soldier - has been killed on the Gaza border.
Things are different on the Palestinian side. Over the past six months, 250 Palestinians have been killed in border riots, 5,500 suffered gunshot wounds and thousands of others sustained other injuries. In all cases, using live fire was selective, targeting only those who tried to breach the border or harm Israeli troops. Those are the IDF's two red lines, as dictated by the government – harming troops and violating Israeli sovereignty.
So far, this policy has proven successful, as Israel has not been dragged into another conflict in Gaza. At times, this has been a bitter pill to swallow, especially given the Palestinian arson terrorism campaign, which continues to wreak havoc on Israeli communities near the border.
The 65-kilometer (40-mile) Israel-Gaza border is very much the scene of a prolonged cat-and-mouse game between the IDF and Palestinian terrorists: endless friction against which the military must restrain itself.
This may be perceived as a weakness, as the public's instinct is to demand the IDF put a stop to arson terrorism and the riots. Practically, however, it beats a war, which is likely to exact a far higher toll in casualties but is highly unlikely to improve the situation.
But it is doubtful whether this situation can be sustained over time. The economic and humanitarian situation in Gaza is deteriorating, the Palestinians' despair is mounting, and a solution is nowhere in sight.
Efforts to reach a cease-fire, permanent or temporary, have proven futile. Hamas and Israel are willing to go the distance, but it is Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas who is actively torpedoing these attempts. As far as he is concerned, it is all or nothing - either he rules Gaza and Hamas lays down its arms (a condition that Hamas will never accept), or Gaza can, to put in plainly, go to hell.
The international community as a whole is pressuring Abbas to ease the stifling economic sanctions he has imposed on Gaza. This includes the Egyptians, who head the mediation efforts, Qatar, which funds the fuel for Gaza's power plants, the United States, which has already imposed every possible sanction on the Palestinians and has effectively lost any leverage it could use to influence Ramallah, and the Europeans, who seem to finally understand that carrots don't work without sticks.
Abbas has proven surprisingly resistant to pressure. He insists he is not the "bad guy" here but rather Hamas is. After all, it is the Islamist terrorist group that ousted him from power in Gaza in 2007, they are the ones fighting Israel and threatening Egypt and the West, and they are the ones doing business with Iran and collaborating with Islamic State.
Abbas' position is not devoid of logic as, between him and Hamas, he is the lesser evil. The problem is that if we follow his lead, Gaza will explode and the blast will not reach Ramallah but rather than Israel. This is precisely the game Hamas is playing, taking its frustration out on Israel in the hope that it will solve its problems.
As things stand, the potential for escalation is high. Any unusual incident, on either side of the border, could trigger a full-fledged conflict. On the positive side, Hamas is deterred and wary. Four years ago, it provoked a war when things were not as dire, and this means that there is still some military and political leeway to explore.
The public's patience, and especially the patience demonstrated by the political echelon in an election year, will have a significant impact on the developments in the near future. One can only hope that the cool heads and common sense shown by decision-makers in recent months will not be replaced by unnecessary pressure and actions, the consequences of which could prove highly detrimental.
