First of all, this is merely a scenario – one that is almost fictional at the moment. But technically, a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv could happen if a terrorist organization or an enemy state (*cough* Iran *cough*) decided to push past the point of no return.
Historian of science Alex Wellerstein has created an interactive map that lets users see what would happen in the event of a nuclear attack on various major global population centers. Through reported models of nuclear weapons and their effects, including the size of the fireball, the blast radius, radiation danger zones, and more, the map projects the results of imagined nuclear attacks on crowded cities.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
"We are living in a world in which nuclear weapons are on the front pages of our papers on a regular basis. There are people who think that nuclear bombs wipe out the entire world in one fell swoop, and others who think they aren't that different from conventional bombs. The reality is somewhere in the middle," Wellerstein explains.
His map allows users to create a bomb of a random size, or use data about known nuclear bombs – such as tests carried out by North Korea, real nuclear explosions that took place during testing, and of course the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. His map also includes assessments of what tools could find their way into the hands of a terrorist organization.
To test out what would happen if Tel Aviv were targeted in a nuclear attack, we used the bomb that North Korea reportedly tested in 2013. This is a bomb that is relevant for us: Syria used North Korea for help in developing its nuclear reactor, which Israel destroyed. It's not impossible that some state or terrorist organization would turn to the radical country for help building, or purchasing, a nuclear bomb.
So, according to the initial assessment, a nuclear bomb on Tel Aviv would kill over 84,000 instantly, and cause 250,000 wounded. These numbers, incidentally, are what we would see from a "small" nuclear bomb. Residences within a seven-kilometer (4.3 miles) of the blast would collapse. Anyone within 3.5 km. (2 miles) of the blast would be in extreme danger and without medical care, as many as 90% would be likely to die. Those deaths, Wellerstein's site says, would take anywhere from a few hours to a few weeks.
A small nuclear bomb attack on Tel Aviv would smash glass windows as far as 57 km. (34 miles) from the blast site, resulting in minor injuries. If a nuclear bomb were to be dropped in central Tel Aviv, the outlying cities of Givatayim, Ramat Gan, and Bnei Brak would also be affected by the blast.
The map also examines wind and other factors at the projected blast sites, meaning that numbers change from city to city. Jerusalem, for example, would suffer the highest casualty rate among Israeli cities if directly hit by a nuclear bomb, with 181,000 dead and over 340,000 wounded. A nuclear attack on Jerusalem would also affect Beit Shemesh, as well as Ramallah and Abu Dis.
