We have recently seen a change in the graphics used to depict the breakdown of the blocs in polling published by the media. No more "right-wing-ultra-Orthodox bloc" vs "center-left bloc with Yisrael Beytenu." The map of the blocs is now right (Likud-ultra-Orthodox-Yamina) versus the Centre-Left (Blue and White-Labor-Meretz-Gesher), and two independent blocettes: the Joint Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu.
The conditions that have been created have made it clear that Yisrael Beytenu is, according to the polling, a party with seven variables. Or to be more precise, a party with one huge variable – times seven. From a party with a more or less known ideology, Yisrael Beytenu has turned into a party whose political position is unknown. Anyone who chooses its ballot slip at the ballot box is taking a risk.
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Ahead of the April 9, 2019 vote, it was seen – and also declared itself – as an integral part of the coalition headed by Netanyahu – but then did not actually do that. In the Sept. 17 elections, Lieberman made sure to position his party somewhere between the two blocs – but in the end did not go with either. Now, when he does not rule out sitting with Meretz but does rule out sitting with the ultra-Orthodox, his comments can be seen as clearly leaning towards the center-left bloc.
Right-wing voters, left-wing voters, those for whom issues of religion and state are important, will make a mistake in voting for Yisrael Beytenu out of the belief that they understand its ideological makeup because it is a party with an unknown variable.
The party list is the best proof of this. Attorney David Rotem (now deceased), who served as the chair of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee on behalf of Yisrael Beytenu, at the time formulated, initiated and promoted the outline for the army draft bill. As a resident of the settlement of Efrat and a former legal adviser for the Yesha Council, the umbrella organization of municipal councils of Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria, Rotem had a clear and unambiguous agenda, and the party remember him and mention him fondly for it.
So what would have been more natural for Lieberman to include in Yisrael Beytenu's party list a national-religious candidate, of the ideological ilk of David Rotem? Why, in this current political climate, when all parties are courting the national-religious vote, has Yisrael Beytenu abandoned this electorate? This would have a double impact: it would bring in votes from this key sector, as well as cleanse the party of the anti-religious image it has taken on.
The answer is simple. Lieberman wants to have in the Knesset a disciplined and compliant faction, whose members will be ready to change direction the moment they are ordered to. An opinionated candidate with an ideological spine from the national-religious sector is likely to defy the orders of the leader and refuse the capricious turns that could come at any moment.
Israel Beiteinu does not have any party mechanism that can influence the party leadership or conduct a discussion with it. There is not even a type of body akin to a council of Torah sages which, while not democratic, is at least made up of several participants. There are no camps in the faction that could continue in one direction or another at crunch time. The party chair is the ultimate authority. He decides and he will navigate, and Yisrael Beytenu voters may well find their party in the next Knesset sitting in a coalition with Labor-Meretz, in coalition with the ultra-Orthodox, and so on. There is no way of knowing – it's a vote for the black hole party.
Sofi Ron-Moria is a writer and journalist.
