IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi and Shin Bet security agency Director Nadav Argaman were expected to convene on Wednesday to discuss which scenarios were likely to unfold ahead of Israel's plan to apply sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria in early July.
The situational assessment will be held at the Kirya, IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, and is slated to span several hours. The heads of the IDF's Operations, Military Intelligence, and Planning directorates, GOC Central Command, Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, and other high-ranking officers were also expected to attend the meeting, together with other senior Shin Bet officials.
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The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the operational significance of applying Israeli sovereignty to large parts of Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley. Various scenarios will be examined, including the severance of relations with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, the eruption of widespread riots across Judea and Samaria, which could morph into a wave of terrorist attacks, and the possibility that such violence will spread to other areas, particularly Gaza.
The IDF has been preparing in recent months for the possibility that sovereignty will be implemented. These preparations mainly involve improving the battle readiness and structuring of the forces on the ground: training the relevant units and command centers, stocking the weapons and equipment warehouses, and enhancing the coordination mechanisms between the Shin Bet security agency, Israel Police, and others.
At the same time, the IDF is also examining the legal ramifications of Israel's expected decision to declare sovereignty. These include, among other issues, the exact legal authority of "the sovereign power" on the ground. Currently, GOC Southern Command has legal authority, and applying Israeli law in new areas will necessitate the transfer of authority over IDF actions to civilian bodies, or, conversely, the legislation of compatible laws in the Knesset.
The preparations within the defense establishment are ongoing despite the uncertainty over which steps the government will choose to implement on the ground (if at all), and the actual scope of sovereignty. This depends on the understandings that are reached with the Trump administration and the coordination measures currently being discussed behind the scenes with officials from European and Arab countries, including countries that officially don't have diplomatic relations with Israel.
On Monday, Defense Minister Benny Gantz met with Kochavi on the matter and instructed the IDF to prepare for a broad range of scenarios. IDF officials expressed hope that the political echelon would keep the military echelon abreast of its plans well in advance.
Defense officials are divided in their assessments over the possible reactions to Israeli annexation. The main concern pertains to the future of relations with Jordan and the widely held view that King Abdullah, while he won't rush to annul the peace treaty with Israel, will be pressured by strident opposition at home that could lead him to take extreme measures aimed at preserving the stability of his monarchy.
As for Judea and Samaria, the general assessments are that the Palestinian response will depend on the scope and nature of Israel's implementation. If Israel suffices with a declarative measure and even applies sovereignty on a very limited basis, the belief is that the event can be contained. However, the wider the scope of sovereignty, the greater the odds of broad resistance, perhaps even violence.
Defense officials believe that despite the Palestinian Authority's official declarations on the matter, the PA will not fully sever ties with Israel. With that, it could also act against its own interest if it encounters opposition at home, primarily from Hamas, which could attempt to exploit the events to bolster its standing in Judea and Samaria at the expense of the PA.
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