A leading Israeli think tank ran an exercise this week simulating possible scenarios that would arise from Israel applying sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria and concluded the move is highly unlikely given the potential damage it would inflict on Israel's national security and diplomatic standing.
"Almost immediately, a series of escalating events began in the Israeli-Palestinian sphere and beyond," the Institute for National Security Studies warned.
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As part of a quickly deteriorating Middle Eastern situation, the INSS warned that Jerusalem would likely be confronted with a wave of Palestinian violence and the freezing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declaring independence in Judea and Samaria.
"During the exercise, the increased loss of control over these events spurred the various relevant actors to accede to a plan by the Quartet [UN, US, EU and Russia] for the suspension of both the annexation and establishment of the Palestinian state and a return to the negotiating table – with [US President Donald Trump's] plan one of the terms of reference for those negotiations, along with the Arab Peace Initiative," the INSS concluded.
The Arab Peace initiative is a 2002 Saudi-sponsored plan that offers Israel full diplomatic normalization and trade with the Arab world in exchange for a Palestinian state in accordance with the UN and international law.
The INSS also lamented that the current Israeli government would be eschewing long-term strategic thinking in favor of short-term considerations, and that sovereignty could prompt "dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."
"It became clear that tactical events are what determine Israeli strategy," the think tank said. "This tendency was illustrated during the war game, and showed that the decision-making process reflects short-term thinking that does not take into account all of the direct or indirect consequences of dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."
According to the INSS, Israel could also be confronted with a far less amenable administration in the White House come November, when the US holds presidential elections.
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"The image of Israel as a 'regional bully' that does not comply with norms, international law, or the rules of the game, while enjoying full American backing, is prevalent. The dynamic of the game showed that if [US Democratic Presidential nominee Joe] Biden is elected president, he may withdraw American recognition of the annexation, and perhaps the protection of the American veto on a decision against Israel that is not binding in the Security Council. In that case, relations between Israel and the Democratic Party in the US will be seriously harmed," the report concluded.
Parts of this article were originally published by i24NEWS.
