A sports cliché says, "You're only as good as your last performance." The Israeli military would gladly sign off on this saying if every incident would end the way the failed terrorist attack on the Syria-Israel border on Sunday did, with a well-executed operation that left four terrorists dead.
This success stems primarily from the nature of the frontier: unlike the Lebanon border, the Syrian border is easier to operate across in the sense that "anything goes." That gives the IDF a massive advantage over the enemy – any enemy.
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The fact that Israel also has a clear political entity – the Syrian government – from which to exact a price also makes things easier, and the fact that the adversary is not as menacing as the one lurking over the Lebanese border doesn't hurt, either.
However, much like with Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping force in the Golan Heights cannot do much against the fact that a terrorist cell attempted to plant explosives on the Israel-Syria border. The IDF has no one to rely on but itself.
The Syrian Golan hosts various organizations and entities, including some affiliated with Hezbollah, although Sunday's border incident seems to be the work of the Quds Force – Iran's elite extraterritorial black-ops arm.
If this proves true, the attack may have been an attempted Iranian retaliation over the mysterious strike on the Natanz nuclear facility last month, which it blamed on the US and Israel.
This is actually good news: it means Iran sought to mount a tactical reprisal, something that can be contained and won't escalate into a wide-scale conflict with Israel. It also means that Iran's operational abilities in Syria are limited – to the tune that it struggles to carry out ostensibly simple terrorist attacks.
The IDF, however, cannot be complacent. The main challenge – Hezbollah – lurks in Lebanon and tensions in that sector remain high.
Hezbollah has yet to hint how, when, or where it plans to retaliate over the killing of one its operatives in an alleged Israeli strike in Syria last month. And Hezbollah has the ability to drive the IDF – and the Lebanese people – mad with anticipation.
This, of course, works both ways. The IDF can also play mind games with the Shiite terrorist group, and news that Defense Minister Benny Gantz has instructed the military to target Lebanese infrastructure should any harm come to Israeli soldiers or civilians has sparked grave concern in Beirut.
Lebanon is in dire economic, health, and social straights. The last thing it needs it war, let alone with Israel.
Trying to even the playing field, both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have made it clear that any Israeli strike would be tantamount to a declaration of war that would be waged under the dogma of "an eye for an eye."
Israel cannot afford to be the first to blink. If Hezbollah insists on playing a game of chicken on Lebanese soil – so be it.
Sustaining normalcy in northern Israel under these conditions is tough. It takes nerves of steel and patience. Moreover, the more time goes by, the less legitimate a strike on Hezbollah seems, as we move away from the original context.
Israel hopes Hezbollah would suffice with a small-scale act, for the sake of saving face, but if it doesn't, the IDF will be ready. Israel will not hesitate to exact a heavy price from its foes to ensure calm on its northern frontier.
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