How do voters feel about recent political developments at the party level? According to an Israel Hayom poll conducted by the Maagar Mochot Institute, if an election were held at this time, Yesh Atid with MK Ofer Shelach at the helm would win 11 seats, only two seats short than the party is projected to win under founder and current leader Yair Lapid.
The poll showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party losing ground and projected it would win only 31 seats. Yamina, led by former Defense Minister Naftali Bennett, would win 20 seats, making it the second-largest faction in parliament. If Netanyahu and Bennett were to work together, they could easily form a coalition of right-wing and Haredi parties. However, with Yamina having been left out of the current coalition, cooperation between Bennett and Netanyahu is far from a certainty.
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The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 565 Israelis adult and had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
In general, the poll showed the Right gaining traction, with 31 seats for the Likud, 20 for Yamina, nine seats for Shas and seven for United Torah Judaism, which would provide a total of 67 seats for a Right/Haredi coalition.
The poll also predicted 17 seats for the Joint Arab List, making it the largest opposition party. Yesh Atid under Lapid would win 13 seats followed by Blue and White under Defense Minister Benny Gantz (10), Yisrael Beytenu under Avigdor Lieberman (8), and Meretz with five seats.
Neither the Labor party, with three projected seats, nor Derech Eretz under MKs Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, were predicted to make it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%.
The poll also looked at how a possible leadership change in Blue and White, with Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi taking the reins, would affect voters, but it turns out that Ashkenazi would bring in only one additional seat, boosting Blue and White to a projected 11 seats.
If popular, long-serving Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai or former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot were to join one of the left-wing parties, it could change things somewhat. According to the poll, a party with Hudai and Eizenkot on its ticket could bring in 11 seats. However, that would not be a net gain for the Left, as most of those seats would come at the expense of of Yesh Atid, which would drop to nine seats; Blue and White, which would fall to six seats; and Meretz, which would win only three seats and be at risk of not making it into the Knesset.
Respondents' answer to the question who they thought was most qualified to serve as prime minister showed a major shift in public opinion. Netanyahu was still the top pick, with 32% saying he was the best candidate, but Bennett was No. 2, with 17% saying he was the best pick for prime minister. Only 10% of respondents said Gantz, who is slated to begin his rotation as prime minister in November 2021, was most qualified to serve as prime minister, behind even Lapid, whom 12% said was the best candidate for the job.
Broken down by parties, 68% of Yamina voters said that Bennett was the most qualified to serve as prime minister, compared to 17% of United Torah Judaism voters and 10% of Shas voters who thought that Bennett was the best prime ministerial candidate. Interestingly, Bennett had more support among Derech Eretz voters, 80% of whom said he was the best candidate for prime minister.
The poll also asked respondents for their views on how the government is handling the coronavirus crisis, and more than half (59%) said it was doing "very poorly." Only 16% of respondents rated the government's handling of the issue "good" or "very god."
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As for the economic fallout, 54% of respondents gave the government grades of "poor" or "very poor," and only 20% thought that the government was doing well or very well on the economic front.
Of all the government officials who are playing major roles in the national battle against coronavirus, recently-appointed corona commissioner Professor Ronni Gamzu had the most support, with 36% of respondents saying they were satisfied or very satisfied with what he was doing. Only 25% said they were satisfied with Netanyahu, and 12% said the same for Gantz. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein had the approval of only 18% of respondents, and only 15% were satisfied with Finance Minister Israel Katz.
Translated to grades of 1-5, with 5 being the highest, Gamzu had the highest grade (3.02). Edelstein was graded 2.45. Gamzu and Edelstein were followed by Netanyahu (2.39), Gantz (2.32), Katz (2.26), and Lapid (2.15).
