Pennsylvania is called the Keystone State due to the key role it played in the original 13 colonies. The 2020 election has put Pennsylvania, where the US declared independence on July 4, 1776, back on center stage.
Both sides are focusing on it as if it were Florida in 2000, and rightfully so. In 2016 Trump managed to "steal" it from the Democrats after it voted for them for 28 years, and now he's trying to do it again by emphasizing coal and oil shale and the rest of the industries that would have to close under Joe Biden's green policies.
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Pennsylvania is purple in the classic sense of the word: the eastern part of the state is liberal, like new York, the western part leans Democratic, like Ohio, but is not liberal, and in the middle, it's as conservative as Alabama. As if that weren't enough, the Philadelphia suburbs are unpredictable, as is appropriate for a city where independence was declared. So Trump arrived Monday and held three massive rallies.
Biden is leading in the polls, and apparently in early voting, too. The number of early votes sent in this year has already surpassed all early votes cast four years ago, and stands at over 60 million. But Trump has the energy and the momentum, as well as a fired-up base that has started to flock to the polls in recent days, including in Florida. One thing that is surprising is that young Black men are voting for him in disproportionate numbers, compared to other sectors of Black voters.
Polls in key states which will decide the election show Biden with a small lead in most of them, but also point to a statistical tie, especially in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. So the experts can't agree about the range of possibilities for the election, which could be anything from a runaway victory for Biden with far in excess of 270 electoral votes, or a surprising win for Trump in the style of 2016.
Trump, who hasn't stopped running around, arrived at the pleasant small town of Lititz, in the heart of conservative Pennsylvania, on Monday. It's a rural, religious area that is home to a large Amish community whose members use horses and carts to get around and have become an inseparable part of nearby Lancaster. There, I met a woman named Debbie. She lives in a very "red" area but she, like all her friends, is liberal and is voting for the Democrats.
"Are you optimistic?" I ask here.
"I'm really scared … there are days when I feel like Biden will win, and days when I don't," she replies.
Trump is fighting for every vote in Pennsylvania's conservative districts, because Biden is still more down-to-earth and warmer than Hillary Clinton. But at the rally in Lititz on Monday, it appeared as if all Pennsylvania was red. There were a lot of Amish (who do not believe in COVID and insist on not wearing masks), and they all – at least according to a loudspeaker that announced their arrival – are voting for Trump. Everyone was in a good mood, as if it was a football game, and showed up wearing Trump flags.
It's the growth, stupid
In his speech, Trump reminded them of the economic growth during his presidency. He stressed that Biden was in the hands of environmental activists who wanted to prevent the residents from enjoying that growth. He stressed that the COVID crisis would pass.
We'll make a comeback, no one can make a comeback better than us, he told the audience. "We're the greatest country in the world," he said, to chants of "USA!"
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Trump also needled Biden, who isn't making public appearances: "I can't lock myself in the White House basement, because I have work to do."
Trump doesn't believe the polls. He is certain that he is a true son of the Keystone State. Trump has to win as many votes as possible in the heart of red Pennsylvania, as well as split the suburban vote, as he did in 2016, especially around Philadelphia.
I also met Jim. He grew up in Pennsylvania but went to college in Nashville, Tennessee. He is a libertarian – in other words, does not believe in either party and wants the government to stay out of all areas of life, so he isn't supporting anyone. He says that the Second Amendment, which guarantees Americans the right to bear arms, is the one of the most important things, which is why Trump has so much support in this part of the state, where many residents hunt.
"Sure, he has a chance. I'm a retired educator. A lot of teachers I know think Trump's a clown, but Biden isn't getting them fired up," Jim says.
A politician, not a local
The fact that Trump fought a battle here and won four years ago is making us think he might do it again. He could definitely win. Biden is not loved here, even though he talks about being from here and growing up some 80 miles away. The way they see it, he isn't a local any more, he's a politician, whereas Trump is like them.
All of a sudden, as I'm driving, I see a lovely black horse and an Amish man driving along in a cart. And on the subject of carts, it seems like the Democrats have theirs before the horse and are counting on a sure win. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is already treating Biden like the president. Her attitude reflects the growing Democratic opinion that a Biden victory will lead the Democrats to re-take the Senate, as well. Indeed, a few Republican senators, especially in Maine and Iowa, are in trouble.
Either way, the hardest week for both sides has begun, and Trump isn't letting up. On Monday, it was announced that he will be holding 11 rallies in the last 48 hours of the campaign. That is his way of scoring free media coverage and pushing back the massive enlistment for Biden, who might not be holding rallies, but is blasting the media with campaign ads. On Monday, Trump racked up a huge victory: the appointment of Judge Amy Coney Bennett, his third to the Supreme Court. Vice President Mike Pence, who was exposed to COVID through his team, did not self-isolate and remained in charge of the Senate for the vote. The appointment guarantees a solid conservative majority on the court that could also decide the result of the election, if it's close.
Everything is hanging in the balance for another week, but it appears as if the election is for or against one figure: a person named Trump.
