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Will US Jews tip the scales? It's complicated

An in-depth report from the Ruderman Family Foundation and Professor Gil Troy indicates that it's doubtful that the Jewish vote has much effect at all on the results of US elections

by  Dan Lavie
Published on  11-03-2020 16:14
Last modified: 04-04-2022 11:40
Will US Jews tip the scales? It's complicatedSpencer Platt/Getty Images

Members of the Jewish Orthodox community walk down a street in a Brooklyn neighborhood | File photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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It's an open secret that US Jews have cultural and political influence far beyond their demographic representation. Jews make up only some 2% of the US population of 328 million.

Despite the fact that they are few, Jews in the US are often in prominent positions – in diplomacy, in high-tech, in the media, and in film.

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Historically, the majority of Jews have voted for the Democrats, with only about 30% casting ballots for the Republicans. Most of the community sees Judaism as a liberal value, and a Democratic vote as aligning with it.

However, despite all the talk about "Jewish influence" on US politics, an in-depth report from the Ruderman Family Foundation and Professor Gil Troy, an expert in US presidential history from McGill University, indicates that it's doubtful that the Jewish vote has much effect at all on the results of US elections, despite their high voter turnout – 85% compared to an average of 56% among voters on the whole.

Still, some 95% of Jewish voters cast ballots in areas of electoral importance, such as Detroit or in south Florida. But even with a high percentage of Jewish voters in electorally important districts and a high voter turnout by the demographic, "there simply aren't enough American Jews to tip the scales of an election," Troy says, adding that "Jews have been minor players in most election results."

The term "Jewish vote" was first coined in 1864 when then-President Abraham Lincoln received a letter from Meir Isaacs, a leader in the New York Jewish community, telling him that there was no "Jewish vote," and if there had been, it could not be "bought."

When Jewish immigrants began to arrive in the US en masse between about 1880-1924, they leaned almost automatically toward the Democrats. Ever since the 1928 election, about 70% of Jews have voted Democrat.

And as of October 2020, a survey by the American Jewish Committee did not indicate any change in that voting pattern. According to the survey, 22% of US Jews planned to vote for President Donald Trump, and 75% planned to vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

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Tags: IsraelJewsRuderman FoundationUS

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