One crazy night, that's what the American people and the entire world have just been through while following the ballot counting in what may be the most dramatic election in the history of the United States.
As a reminder, according to the polls, this should have been a walk in the park for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, due to US President Donald Trump's management of the corona crisis, at least according to political commentators. They insisted, with the support of the polls, that the American people had had enough of Trump and his not adhering to social distancing guidelines. The pundits insisted that the coronavirus had changed everything, and denied him the inherent advantage of an incumbent president by causing the American people to forget both his domestic and foreign policy achievements.
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But in practice, even if it remains unclear who won, the exit polls show Trump has gained support since 2016 specifically because of what he has achieved, on the economic front in particular, and because people were concerned his rival would promote a lockdown and draconian restrictions that would paralyze their lives.
Trump has also gained support among African American men and women, white women, and Hispanic men and women. Not only that, but Trump has even succeeded in maintaining his status among white, college-educated voters – meaning he has likely split the suburbs of places like Philadelphia – and was as a result close (as of Election Day) to preventing a Biden victory in the Midwest and the redrawing of the famous "blue line."
This should have been a cakewalk for Biden, but in the end, we got a nail biter that may be decided in court. Trump declared victory and alleged voter fraud. Things actually started out pretty good for Trump, with a big victory in Florida that was even more substantial than the one he achieved four years ago. Despite a major coronavirus outbreak in the state, and a large number of pensioners who began to abandon him in the polls over the situation, he earned over 50% of the votes, and with a larger margin than he did against then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.
But things got difficult from there. On one hand, throughout the night, Biden was unable to flip any state other than Arizona, and that serves as a testament to just how strong support for Trump is in these states. But ultimately, on Wednesday it became clear to the president that Wisconsin had also apparently flipped for Biden (according to two news channels and an almost final tally).
It, therefore, seems that the only way for Trump to win the election is by preventing Biden from turning another state blue, assuming Biden takes Nevada as predicted. This will be no easy task, but Trump does not appear ready to give up until the last of the available channels, be they technical or legal, are exhausted, as he believes there may have been a miscount of the votes.
A sitting president doesn't usually lose, and if he has in fact succeeded in improving his standing in the exit polls over the last 4 years, then the vote count would not appear to make sense. Moreover, in a year where mail-in voting has doubled and even tripled, we must check even more carefully. This is particularly true due to the ease with which the system can be cheated, for example in Pennsylvania, where ballots without postmarks showing they were mailed before voting stations were closed can be counted, but also the manner in which voter identities are verified by mail are crying out for examination in numerous states. One of the issues that has been pondered by many online over the last 24 hours is the way in which the data has been reported. So, for example, on Twitter, it was noted that the number of ballots for the Democrats in Michigan had suddenly increased by over 138,000 votes.
System error
A local newspaper in Detroit investigated the issue and found that this was not something that had happened in the dead of the night, as many had claimed, but was in fact the result of a computer error. As a spokesperson for election result tracker Decision Desk HQ explained in a statement, "We do not alter the data of these files, and that's why when the state noticed a mistake and updated the tally, the number was updated in the systems."
"The state noticed the error and produced an updated count. This happens on election nights, and we expect other vote tabulators in Michigian experienced this error and corrected in real-time as we did."
But the damage, as far as Trump supporters are concerned, has been done, and many on Twitter, have claimed – without basis – that the inflation of the data was deliberate. Trump on Wednesday also tweeted something similar when he wrote, "Wow! It looks like Michigan has now found the ballots necessary to keep a wonderful young man, John James, out of the US Senate. What a terrible thing is happening!" James is the Republican candidate for the Senate who, as of yesterday, was running neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent.
One way or another, Trump's declaration of victory certainly angered many, but that is his only way to survive and that is what he is used to doing as president. It certainly didn't help to calm the protesters in Washington who demonstrated in front of the White House and the business owners on the streets of Michigan who boarded up their store windows. One can see just how divided America is, and from the moment one exits their hotel, police cars are visible.
But Trump can find solace in knowing that even if he loses, a blue wave did not sweep America as the commentators had predicted. The appointment of numerous judges, including three to the Supreme Court, ensure conservatism lives on in America. The progressive wave we were promised – or threatened with – did not come. It doesn't guarantee peace and quiet out on the streets. And the fact that it takes so long to determine the outcome has proved that half of Americans like their president. The huge rallies I witnessed with my own eyes last week didn't lie either.
It was a referendum: Trump – yay or nay. Even if the electorates ultimately decide he will not continue as president, the people have made clear that the Democrats have not offered a suitable alternative. Biden then has been something of a supporting actor in this mediocre movie. If he becomes the 46th president of the United States, he is the wrong person at the wrong time, who showed up at this intersection almost by accident while running an "anti-campaign." While this may have garnered him a technical victory, it did not convince the American public his stance on the fateful matters of the hour – the economy, the pandemic, and the US's standing in the world – should be placed in the hands of a left-wing administration.
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Trump is in the history books, and Trumpism is alive and kicking, even in states that Biden is liable to turn blue, whether in the Midwest, North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. But in the meantime, Trump will remain in the White House until the courts force him to renounce the fight. One way or another, the 2020 election is an upgraded version of the 2000 election, from which the US ultimately came out stronger.
Although the Supreme Court was heavily criticized for stopping the recount in Florida at the time, thereby assuring a victory for George W. Bush, this was nevertheless a defining moment for the American people, who proved that even in times of crisis, the democratic system could be trusted.
