For the first time since the March 23 elections were called, Naftali Bennett's Yamina party is poised to win more Knesset seats than Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope faction, cementing Bennett's position as kingmaker in the current political race.
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The poll, which aired Thursday on Tel Aviv-based 103FM Radio, was held by Panel Politics and has a statistical margin of error of 4.3%.
It projected that were elections held at this times, Likud would win 29 Knesset seats, followed by Yesh Atid (18), Yamina (13), New Hope (11), Yisrael Beytenu (9), the Joint Arab List (8) Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas (8), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (7), Labor (6), Blue and White (6), and the Religious Zionist Party (5).
Failing to gain the mandatory four-seat electoral threshold, which requires winning 3.25% of the votes are the Arab Ra'am party (2.9%), Meretz (2.1%), and the Economic party (1.9%).
The results give the right-wing bloc comprising Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and the Religious Zionist Party, 49 mandates, and if Yamina joins it, the coalition would number 62 MKs – safely over the benchmark criteria necessary to form a government, which stands on 61 mandates.
The Center-Left bloc, comprising Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yisrael Beytenu, Labor, Blue and White and the Joint Arab List, reaches 50 mandates, and – if Yamina joins it in lieu of the Joint Arab List, it has 63 seats.
Despite Yamina's national-religious agenda, Bennett has pledged that he would not join a government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stating he plans to replace him. This means that the right-wing bloc cannot rely on a party that was once a natural partner to help it remain in power.
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