Initial IDF inquiries have concluded that a surface-to-air missile that hit southern Israel in the early morning hours on Thursday was not fired by Syrian forces with the intent of striking inside Israeli territory. Contrary to initial concerns that the missile was purposefully fired at a target on Israeli soil, perhaps even at the Dimona nuclear reactor, the IDF said the incident was a case of "errant fire" whereby the missile missed the Israeli jets it was shooting at and continued unimpeded into Israel.
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This type of missile fire is a matter of routine following airstrikes attributed to Israel in Syria. Such an attack occurred early Thursday morning, aimed at destroying particularly high-value targets in northern Syria. Syrian air defense systems responded by firing around 10 missiles of various models at the jets overhead. All the missiles missed their planes, but one of them – a Russian-made SA-5 – maintained its trajectory toward Israel and its debris landed in the Negev Desert.
It was an anomalous incident. The Syrian missiles normally destroy themselves in the air, and their debris falls into the sea. In an incident four years ago, an Israeli Arrow interceptor missile was fired at a Syrian missile that had maintained its trajectory toward Israel. On Thursday, too, an attempt was made to intercept the Syrian missile, but it failed.
This event should trouble Israel for several reasons. The first is the urgent need to determine why the interception failed. Did it happen because a missile operator made the wrong decision or other reasons? The flight trajectory of a surface-to-air missile is particularly challenging because the missile alters its flight path mid-air as it constantly seeks to "acquire" new targets. Although the Israeli Air Defense Command possesses some of the most advanced interception systems in the world, these were developed to counter the threat of missile and rocket attacks, and now must also provide a response to new threats – from cruise missiles and drones to surface-to-air missiles.
The second reason is the fear that someone in Syria will think he's stumbled onto a novel idea and start intentionally firing surface-to-air interceptor missiles at southern Israel. Despite being imprecise and unguidable, advanced missiles such as the one that exploded over the Negev on Thursday after it was fired from a range of hundreds of kilometers, can cause considerable distress to Israeli civilians and statistically cause damage and claim lives as well.
The third reason is that such incidents could give the Syrians and their Iranian patrons more confidence. The balance in the northern sector unequivocally favors Israel: In the face of thousands (!) of successful airstrikes in recent years, the Syrians were able to hit just one Israeli warplane, whose pilots safely ejected over Israeli soil. The latest incident could give Damascus the impression that it can establish a new balance of power against Israel. Hence destroying the battery from which the missile was launched (and several others) was critical, not just to neutralize an immediate threat but to claim a price and preserve the existing balance of deterrence.
And still, in short order, the Syrians will replenish their missile batteries, thanks to Russia, which continues playing its cynical double-game in the northern sector. Although Moscow claims these weapons are for the Assad regime's self-defense, in reality, they could trigger an escalation the Russians themselves have warned about. Beyond the threats to Israeli jets, the advanced surface-to-air missile batteries also jeopardize civilian air traffic in the sector (including inbound and outbound passenger flights to and from Israel), and an errant missile can lead to a precipitous escalation.
Warnings in this vein have been passed to Russia on numerous occasions in recent years, but it seems the government in Moscow prioritizes its monetary gain over everything else. It's possible Russia also wants to restrain what it perceives as Israeli aggression in Syria, as a way to strengthen its status as an intermediary between the sides.
For this reason, however, and because of Thursday's incident – and as global powers hastily work to revive the nuclear deal with Iran – Israel must present Syria with absolute facts and not permit any change to the rules of the game in the north. This is critical for any number of reasons, even if doing so requires Israel to intensify its airstrikes at such a critical juncture.
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