From the outside looking in, it's been hard to understand how Gaza is being managed these past few days. Hamas is orchestrating a perilous, brazen policy by green-lighting daily rocket fire into Israel while simultaneously sending messages that it doesn't want an escalation.
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This double-game being played by Hamas is hackneyed at this point. It benefits from peace and quiet in Gaza, which allows it to focus on rehabilitating the economy, fight the coronavirus pandemic, and navigate intra-Palestinian politics. On the other hand, it perceives itself as the defender of Jerusalem and believes it is duty-bound to protect it. Ergo the recent rocket fire, which, in theory, is supposed to help the residents of east Jerusalem in their struggle. Hamas has limited the attacks to the Israeli communities adjacent to the Gaza Strip. It knows that expanding the range of the rocket fire deeper into Israel will necessarily lead to a more forceful Israeli response.
Hamas, which is well-versed in this attack-response tango, is well aware of its benefits and drawbacks, and mainly its dangers. It knows that one rocket or mortar in the wrong place at the wrong time will trigger an escalation it doesn't want, certainly not during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
In the meantime, it appears, Hamas believes matters are under control and that Israel won't respond disproportionately. Indeed, up until Monday, it seemed Israel's approach was to do everything possible to lower the flames and restore quiet to the Gaza sector. And because Gaza and Jerusalem are intertwined – according to Hamas – the understanding was that to calm things in Gaza, the strife in Jerusalem needs to be relieved first.
It seems, however, that Israel's tone somewhat shifted on Monday. The overriding preference is for deescalation. If Hamas stops shooting, Israel will respond in kind. But if Hamas continues trickling rockets into Israel – which essentially translates into harassing Gaza-area residents at all hours of the night with blaring sirens – Israel will change its policy. Messages in this vein have also been delivered to Gaza. The ball is in your hands, Hamas has been told. Decide whether you want quiet or escalation.
This was the essence of the cabinet's decision Monday. It authorized the IDF to implement phased responses based on developments on the ground. Accordingly, the IDF has sent additional forces and weapons systems to the south and has closed Gaza's fishing zone – a significant blow to the Palestinian economy, particularly during Ramadan.
The IDF has quite a few options for taking action in Gaza. None of these include defeating Hamas, but they come close. From a very limited counterstrike to a broad offensive including a possible ground incursion. Along the way, regardless of its chosen course of action, the IDF will look to impair Hamas' military growth, which has picked up considerable steam over these past few months of peace and quiet.
It's hard to find anyone in Israel thrilled about an escalation, not to mention a ground operation. Because total victory is not on the table at the moment, the understanding is that regardless of the scenario, the sides will ultimately have to return to the starting point. The Egyptians will mediate, the Qataris will expedite money transfers, and Israel and Hamas will stop shooting and return to discussing ceasefire arrangements – until the next round.
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