Until recently, the Iranian drone threat was perceived as an important yet non-decisive component of Iran's military array. In recent months, however, this perception has changed, expressed not only through new intelligence information but also speeches delivered by senior Israeli officials, among them Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
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In September, Bennett devoted part of his address to the UN General Assembly to the matter, telling the world that "just this year, Iran has begun operating a new lethal terrorist unit – a swarm of deadly unmanned aerial drones, armed with weapons that can strike at anywhere at any time." Bennett added that Iran has already carried out drone attacks in the Middle East and noted that the Iranians "intend to blanket the skies with this deadly force." Gantz, for his part, recently revealed that Iran had tried using drones to transfer explosive materials from Syria to Judea and Samaria.
The fact that the Iranians are developing drones, operating them and supplying them to their proxies across the region, is nothing new. Even before the Second Lebanon War in 2006, droned had penetrated Israeli airspace, and in July, at the height of that war, Hezbollah launched several armed drones toward central Israel.
But the seemingly pivotal moment, which put Iran's drone arsenal on the proverbial map, occurred in September 2019 when the Iranians launched drones and cruise missiles at Saudi oil facilities some 1,000 kilometers away. The attack caused tremendous damage to Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqayq, Saudi Arabia, disrupting the kingdom's ability to produce oil for many months.
The swarm of Iranian drones reached their targets completely undetected by the Saudi air defense systems protecting the oil facilities, and no attempt was made to shoot them down.
Since that attack, several more Iranian drone attacks have been reported; namely the attack on the MV Mercer Street vessel traveling from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The ship was attacked at least twice, killing the British captain and Romanian security guard. Although the attack on the Mercer Street vessel involved fewer drones than the attack on the Saudi oil facilities, the operation was just as impressive from an operational and technical perspective – and evidenced Iran's long-range attack capabilities.
The Islamic republic has allegedly used drones in other operations as well, including an attack on an American army base at Al-Tanf in eastern Syria. That attack failed to claim any casualties after Israel – according to foreign media reports – warned the US in advance.
Unrevealed capabilities
Iran possesses several types of drones. Some are large, capable of traveling thousands of kilometers to either gather intelligence or attack a target. Others are "suicide" drones, smaller and less sophisticated. The problem becomes more acute as Iran doesn't operate all of them on its own, rather through its regional proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, for example. They are being utilized more and more because they are effective, easy to operate manufacture, and are relatively cheap. From an operational perspective, they are precise, extremely difficult to detect due to their weak radar signature, and are hard to shoot down. From a strategic perspective, the fact that Iran doesn't have to launch these aircraft from its territory allows it to blur its involvement and sidestep significant military retaliation. Their primary drawback is that their payload is relatively small.
In his speech at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University (IDC) in Herzliya in November, Gantz noted that Iran is "developing additional drone capabilities that have not been revealed yet."
US also concerned
The US also finds the Iranian drone issue extremely troubling. Although the Biden administration rarely imposes new sanctions on Iran, last October the US Treasury sanctioned individuals and companies affiliated with Tehran's drone program after receiving intelligence information from Israel. It's safe to assume that Israel and the US are cooperating operationally on the matter, as the US has radar systems across the Middle East and can provide Israel with prior warning of a drone attack on its soil.
Regardless, Iran's drone capabilities mustn't be viewed as a threat of secondary importance, rather as equal in value to the precision rockets and missiles in Tehran's possession and as a "game-changer," or at the very least as a means of providing Iran with a victory image. The recent speeches by Bennett and Gantz indicate that Israel's defense establishment understands this. As of now, the Israeli answer to these drones includes, among other things, intercepting them with "soft" measures (electronic warfare) and kinetic measures (fighter jets). Israel has also used the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system, which has been configured in recent months to cope with the new threat, and has even shot down drones launched from Gaza.
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