This week's events have offered further proof that the Israeli political system rotates around one axis: Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Ostensibly, coalition members were focused on their own matters. They made decisions, held discussions, and fought the coronavirus. In practice, however, they had only one thing on their minds and that was whether or not Netanyahu would sign a plea deal.
Early in the week, a few Likud lawmakers tried to initiate a move that would allow Netanyahu to continue to serve as party chair following his retirement from the Knesset. There were several reasons for the move, which succeeded in garnering support from those who could not exactly be called Netanyahu loyalists. By keeping Netanyahu in his current role, they reasoned, the party would buy time to reorganize and select a new chairman. This, they thought, would allow them to avoid the chaos of having to select a temporary chairman after which party members would then need to vote in primary elections.
The move was torpedoed. A few candidates for party leader made it clear that as soon as he signs a plea deal, Netanyahu must go. A party member who cannot serve as a Knesset lawmaker cannot serve as party head, they argued. That's because according to the party's constitution, the party chairman is the party's candidate for prime minister. If Netanyahu can't be prime minister, they explained, then he can't serve as the head of the party either.
One of the candidates who refused to bend the rules is influential Likud party figure Israel Katz. As temporary chairman, he could be elected. The only other Likud member that could possibly challenge him is Yuli Edelstein. It certainly won't be Nir Barkat. If elected, Katz could try to break up the government and establish an alternative government under his leadership. This would give him an advantage in the Likud party primaries. However, the other candidates do not intend to sit idly by as Katz takes over the movement. In recent days, several of them have tried to convince current Likud Central Committee chairman Likud MK Haim Katz to demand the role of temporary party chairman. According to the party's constitution, the central committee chairman serves as temporary chairman until party elections are held. Haim Katz, however, is not necessarily interested in going up against Israel Katz as they both previously served as central axes in the central committee.
While the remaining candidates for party head have made clear they will refuse to allow Netanyahu to remain in the role of party chair until elections are held, they have also refused to allow whoever serves as temporary chairman to run for permanent office.
The candidates informed Israel Katz that they oppose his running for temporary and then permanent party chairman. They threatened Katz that by doing so, he could break up the Likud. Katz, however, was unconvinced. If elected, the other senior Likud members plan to reject the outcome of any political negotiations he engages in. From here, the path to chaos and possible division is a short one.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, spoke with his defense team about a plea deal on Wednesday. In recent days, Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit has demanded the threshold for community service be raised to between six and nine months. At the end of the meeting, the defense team concluded the chances of reaching a plea deal under Mendelblit were "very slim." Officials at the State Attorney's Office have also said that the slim chances that once existed for signing a deal are already slipping away.
Nevertheless, the prosecution team is now preparing to amend the indictment, and Netanyahu's defense team is working to convince him he won't get a better deal.
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