Lebanon said US-brokered talks to demarcate its maritime border near the disputed gas field Karish with Israel were at a "make or break" point on Thursday after Israel rejected revisions to a draft deal requested by Beirut, throwing years of diplomatic efforts into doubt. In light of the apparent breakdown of talks, Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the IDF this week to prepare for a possible flare-up on the Lebanese front, with terrorist group Hezbollah warning it could hit Israel if it extracts gas from the field, which is entirely under Israel's economic waters.
The draft, which has not been made public, had a warm preliminary reception from the Israeli and Lebanese governments. But amid domestic opposition in both countries, Lebanon on Tuesday sought amendments from the US envoy.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid "was updated on the details of the substantial changes Lebanon is seeking to make and instructed the negotiating team to reject them", an Israeli official said. Lapid convened the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet on Thursday and the meeting concluded with the ministers empowering him and Gantz to make the necessary decisions in extreme cases should the security situation surrounding this standoff deteriorate.
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A spokesperson for the US Embassy in Israel said the parties were "at a critical stage in the negotiations and the gaps have narrowed." According to Israeli media, a main sticking point was over recognition of a line of demarcation buoys Israel has strung out to sea from its coast. Lebanon worries about any action that may connote formal acceptance of a shared land border.
Lebanon – which has never recognized the state of Israel, with any broader peace deal beyond the horizon – has also said Israel will earn no royalties from the Lebanese share of gas in the nearby Qana prospect, which under the proposed deal would have Lebanon operate but share with Israel part of the revenue to the would-be change of border demarcations.
Top Lebanese negotiator Elias Bou Saab told Reuters on Thursday that he would only respond to official statements and not to media reports on Israel's stance. He said the deal "is 90% done but the remaining 10% could make it or break it," adding that he was in constant contact with US mediator Amos Hochstein.
Israel has been preparing to activate a gas rig, Karish, which is outside Qana. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah made veiled threats about Karish that lent urgency to the talks. Israel previously presented the draft deal with Lebanon, if finalized, as securing Karish. But on Thursday, it changed tack.
Israel is now pressing ahead with Karish, regardless of progress or no progress in the talks, whereas before it cast a successful deal as a means of securing Karish." Israel will produce gas from the Karish rig as soon as it is possible to do so," the Israeli official said, adding that negotiations will "stop immediately" in the face of any threats.
Gantz further hardened the tone, saying in a speech that "Lebanon will bear a heavy military price" if Hezbollah attacks. There was no immediate response from Hezbollah.
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