The shooting attack in Jerusalem on Saturday did not come as a surprise. For quite some time now, security officials have sounded the alarm that motivation to engage in terrorism has reached new highs and that the volume of intelligence on potential attacks was off the charts.
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In response to this, Israel has massively beefed up its troop level in the capital, including in the city environs and the main entry points. It simultaneously picked up the operational tempo in Palestinian cities nearby. This has been complemented by additional IDF operations in northern Samaria with the goal of containing the hotbed of terrorism there so that there is no spillover effect to Judea and Jerusalem (only recently a senior terrorist was detained in the Jenin Refugee Camp).
As result, there have been two developments in recent days. The first has seen the Palestinian Authority pick up its pace of operations, mainly in Nablus, having realized that it was on the verge of losing control of northern Samaria to the point that it could be toppled. The second has had terrorist organizations drive up their terrorist posture – either through leadership figures in Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas making clear statements on likely attacks or in the form of local initiatives by individuals and cells. Many of the plots are designed to stage revenge for IDF operations in Judea and Samaria – some 100 Palestinians have died in raids since the start of the year, the vast majority of whom were terrorists.
It is unclear if the perpetrator in Saturday's attack wanted to hurt security forces or just targeted the first available victims. It is likely that copycat attacks will follow, meaning that the next few weeks will be marked by high tensions.
As far as Israel's national security decision-makers are concerned, this requires several quick decisions. First, should Israel seal off Judea and Samaria for a longer period that extends beyond the Sukkot holiday (which is already in effect)? Second, should Israel intensify its operations in Palestinian cities in order to bolster deterrence even if this could inflame tensions even further? Third, Should forces be reinforced in Jerusalem with the view – however painful – that it would be better to have them be in the line of fire rather than have civilians killed by terrorists?
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