Israeli voters will once again head to the polls on Tuesday, but if there is one thing already clear it is that no major shakeup is expected. Both political camps are roughly equally divided, with the only possible wildcard is turnout, which could determine who ultimately has the upper hand when all the votes are tallied.
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Parties have been zeroing in on key population centers where they believe there is still electoral potential to be unleashed. Likud, led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wants to cement its position as the largest party – and even grow further. Yesh Atid, led by incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid, wants to dethrone Likud as the largest faction in the Knesset and thereby get almost automatic legitimacy to form a new government.
Likud is focusing its efforts on Beit She'an, Tiberias, Dimona, Tirat Hacarmel, Kiryat Gat, Afula and Ariel, as these are considered bastions of the Likud, which one some 50% of the valid vote in the 2021 Knesset election. Campaign officials believe that if they get more people out to vote there, the right-wing party could potentially see major gains in its Knesset representation, and hence this could be the difference between defeat and victory.
Yesh Atid is putting its energy elsewhere: Haifa, Rehovot, Ramat Hasharon, Tel Aviv, Petach Tikva, Ra'anana, and other cities. The party, not unlike Likud, believes there is untapped potential here that could drive turnout even higher for the center-left list led by Lapid, which wants to avoid having a government that would lack the clear backing of a majority of the parliament.
Another figure that could create upsets in this election is the turnout level in Arab communities. If it stays unchanged compared to previous elections – 40% – all three Arab parties could be left out of the Knesset by failing to cross the electoral threshold (3.25% of the valid vote). But if there is an uptick to 45% the chances of all three being left out drop significantly; if it rises to 50%, it all but guarantees two Arab parties enter the Knesset.
What could also be a crucial factor in the outcome on Tuesday is the "enthusiasm gap" between the two camps. Right-wing voters tend to vote in fewer numbers, in part because of socioeconomic disparities. Likud officials believe that the Left's advantage in bringing voters to the polling booth drops from 9% to 3.5%, this could significantly increase the chances for success.
Lapid spoke on Sunday about the recent comments made by Defense Minister Benny Gantz at the Israel Hayom conference implying he lacked the qualifications to deal with security matters. Lapid said, "Gantz's people told me later that this an unsuccessful way of wording things, and that he did not mean it come across that way; I said 'no worries.'"
Meanwhile, There is growing concern among right-wing circles that the Right-Haredim bloc might be denied the 61st seat in the Knesset (which is necessary for a clear-cut majority) because of Haredi voters who choose to sit out this election. Analysis suggests that this could boil down to tens of thousands of voters.
After Israel Hayom reported on the lack of energy among ultra-orthodox voters, United Torah Judaism officials held several "get-out-to-vote" rallies in key Haredi cities on Sunday.
Gershon Edelstein, a key figure in United Torah Judaism, said in one of the events: "Unfortunately, there are some of our brethren who want to deny our children education and prevent us from following the Torah, including on yeshiva students." He warned that not voting was not an option.
"Those who won't participate will be carrying out chilul hashem (profaning the name of God), they will be disrespectful toward the almighty," he told participants.
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