When the UN General Assembly reconvenes after Christmas, it is expected to take up a new draft resolution that would ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague to issue an advisory opinion on whether Israel's presence in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem amounts to a permanent occupation that runs against international law.
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The resolution was introduced by the Palestinians, who defied the express wishes of the US to avoid such a move. Since the Palestinians enjoy an automatic majority for practically every measure against Israel in the General Assembly, the resolution is likely to pass without any difficulty. But that has not stopped Israeli diplomats from waging a behind-the-scenes effort to increase the number of member states who vote against the resolution or at least abstain. The focus has been on courting member states that define themselves as democratic, which the Foreign Ministry sees their vote as having a greater symbolic weight.
The language of the resolution already passed the Special Political and Decolonization Committee (Fourth Committee), with 17 member states voting against it, including the US, Germany, and Australia. Another 57 abstained or did not have representatives present.
Israeli officials say that the way the major powers vote in the general assembly will carry major significance as it could send a signal to the ICJ as to the prevailing sentiment in the international community. Moreover, if key members such as the US vote against the resolution, this could serve Israel down the road if and when the ICJ issues an opinion that is problematic for Israel.
Based on past such resolutions, it could take as much as 18 months until the ICJ issues an opinion after the resolution is passed. Israel has yet to decide whether it would engage the court in an effort to make its case or to adopt the boycott policy it has used against the International Criminal Court.
"A problematic advisory opinion against Israel by the ICJ, if it is issued, should not be disregarded, but neither should it be considered the end of the world," an Israeli official said. The official added that "Israel has enjoyed the status of an asset county in the eyes of the international community, and the Abraham Accords attest to that, so in the grand scheme of things, even a bad outcome at the ICJ, Israel won't be left in the lurch."
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