The abduction of Elizabeth Tsurkov is an achievement that Iran and its proxies can claim against Israel after a long streak of failures. Just recently its plot to target Israelis was thwarted in Cyprus. Israel's security agencies even managed to have the would-be perpetrator interrogated on Iranian soil.
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But in Iraq, which has become Iran's backyard, such a plot was easier to carry out. Tsurkov, a Princeton scholar, was successfully captured by the Shiite militia Kataib Hezbollah, which was formed by the Iranian Quds Force. Now Iran has a bargaining chip for which it can demand a heavy Israel price
For quite some time now, the Iranians have been warning that they will avenge the string of assassinations attributed to Israel (according to foreign sources), which have claimed the lives of several figures linked to its nuclear project. The high-ranking official targeted in those eliminations was Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was killed in his car in November 2020 and headed Iran's military nuclear endeavors. In the aftermath of his death, Iran claimed Israel was a warmonger.
Video: Kataib Hezbollah train in Iraq /Arab media
There is one ray of hope: The US could use its clout over Iraq's government to see that talks are waged with the Iranian-backed militia so that the scholar gets released. After all, she was there just so she could conduct research as part of her PhD dissertation. The US still has troops in the country and, more importantly, also has leverage.
One example that attests to its influence was the US issued a waiver that would let Iraq hand over some $2.7 billion to Iran for various utility and gas bills. But the Iraqi government is clearly pro-Iranian today. It is composed of a Shiite bloc that supports Tehran, and thus, it is unlikely that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani would be keen to resolve this situation at the behest of Jerusalem.
Moreover, it is doubtful that Kataib Hezbollah would take its marching orders from the central government. It was set up by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was assassinated in 2020 by then-Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani.
The militia's stated goal is to get rid of the American forces. Striking a deal with the Americans – and over an Israeli woman – would create problematic optics for the group holding her. Ultimately, the ball lies in the Iranian court. The release could hinge on what Iran gets in return.
The fact that Tsurkov has been missing for several months is not a good omen. The Kataib Hezbollah's track record in treating Shiite scholars is also not encouraging. Only three years ago, Hisham al-Hashimi, a leading researcher on pro-Iranian militias, was shot to death by two armed men. Let's hope she is spared a similar fate.
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