A rising star in the Gulf: the Saudi crown prince, and in effect the real ruler of the kingdom, is no longer concealing his ambition of leading the Arab world. Mohammed bin Salman, better known by his initials MBS, a controversial leader, is currently entering the second stage of his leadership period.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
The first stage was characterized by his meteoric rise, but also by adopting measures, some of which caused damage to the Saudi kingdom. Among others, he launched a war against Yemen, imposed a de facto blockade on Qatar, held Lebanon's Prime Minister, Saad al-Hariri in detention, and ratcheted up the kingdom's hostile tone towards Iran.
Video: Erdogan meets bin Salman / Social media
He is now seeking to put this all behind him and to continue with the revolution that he initiated with a view to creating a new Saudi Arabia: more centralized in terms of government, more open in terms of its approach to social-religious affairs, and also a country that aspires to end its 'addiction' to oil. The question is: Has he learned from his mistakes? The answer to this is not wholly clear. However, he has begun to adopt other means of action that are: more diplomatic and economic and less prone to the use of force, in order to advance his regional objectives, and this is chiefly due to the various surrounding circumstances and conditions.
The wall of isolation surrounding him was cracked before the war in Ukraine broke out, but this has certainly increased the significance of the kingdom's role in the global energy market, intensifying efforts by all and sundry to court it.
A global player
MBS is no longer prepared to make do with merely leading the Arab world, his ambitions go way beyond that – to becoming a key player on the global playing field. He looks at those surrounding him with a sense of superiority and perhaps even a lack of esteem for his neighboring leaders: the heads of Arab states bogged down by constant states of crisis, some of which may genuinely be referred to as failed states.
His kingdom is the largest oil exporter in the world and home to the holiest places of Islam. Consequently, his impact on over one and a half billion Muslims and the global economy as a whole is immense – and he seeks to exploit this in order to forge a new relationship with the regional states, both adversaries such as Iran and allies like the UAE. The Saudi interest here is to reduce tension wherever possible in order to focus attention on the domestic scene: to create prosperity that will go down as his achievement and thus prepare the ground for his eventual coronation.
He has direct access to economic power, geo-strategic influence, and religious legitimacy. Having said that, the road to becoming king is paved with numerous, thorny challenges: At home, there is no lack of figures who are far from satisfied with his rule and have the capacity to pose a challenge to him, both because of the considerable degree of openness he has introduced, and also the fact that he has either imprisoned, removed or banished anybody who has tried to stand in his way. In the regional theater, MBS has begun with an effort to heal wounds and put out fires, many of which were to a large extent lit by him in the first place. His desire to lead the Arab world will clearly face resistance from those state leaders who were key figures there and have now been removed from their pedestal, such as Egypt. Egypt's stability depends on the generosity of the Gulf state leaders, and these are now making it clear to Egypt who sets the tone.
The Gulf has for a long time now been the central theater in the Arab world. Not only in economic and political terms, but also, gradually as regards sport, science, and culture, and as such, the Gulf poses MBS serious diplomatic and economic competition. Both UAE and Qatar are right on his tail.
And what about us? Israel lacks any profound understanding, let alone impact on the internal processes in the kingdom, though it does have some degree of clout in Washington, and it has used this influence in the past to tone down US criticism of Mohammed bin Salman.
The future king could well be placing golden opportunities at our doorstep, first and foremost, due to the more pragmatic vision of potential ties with Israel, possibly culminating in normalization, obviously under the circumstances and the conditions that are favorable to him. At the same time, Jerusalem must take into consideration the fact that Saudi interests do not fully overlap with its own (and not only on the Iranian issue), as well as MBS's unique style of leadership, and hope that we are in fact now witnessing a genuinely new Mohammed bin Salman.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
