On Tuesday night, America was informed that its 45th president, Donald Trump, was indicted yet again – for the third time. This time he is accused of particularly grave crimes concerning the most fundamental principles of US democracy.
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The latest indictment details an alleged plot to subvert the 2020 presidential election and sever the chain of voluntary transfers of power between presidents.
Paradoxically, the two previous indictments filed against Trump – charges related to a hush-money payment to an adult film star in 2016 and the retention of classified documents and conspiracy with a top aide and an employee at Mar-a-Lago – did not affect his popularity.
Video: The indictments against former US President Donald Trump. Credit: Reuters
If anything, it only exacerbated the deep resentment of his supporters, primarily from the working class, toward what they perceive to be an elitist establishment harassing the true representative of the American people in an attempt to prevent him from returning to the White House through falsifications.
This is reflected in the latest polls, conducted ahead of the third indictment, in which Trump ranked significantly ahead of his main Republican opponent Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis (Former Vice President Mike Pence and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley ranking much lower).
In other words, Trump seems to be off to a promising start in his conquest to become the GOP presidential nominee. But what's putting a spoke in his wheel are strained campaign finances and the third indictment that could harm his popularity, especially among moderate Republican voters.
It is certainly true that the traditional voter turnout among the "gatekeepers" of the Republican movement, who constitute Trump's main support base, is higher than that of its moderates.
It cannot be ruled out, however, that the growing number of indictments ahead of the election will alienate less hardcore Republican voters who might view Trump as too heavy an electoral liability.
Moreover, although Trump seems to hold most of the support compared to other Republican candidates, the picture is certainly not the same when looking at his popularity among the general public.
Although Trump seems to have the most support of any Republican presidential candidate, his numbers are much less impressive when looking at his popularity among the general public. According to polls, only about 40% of potential voters support the former president.
Fortunately for Trump, his Democratic rival – President Joe Biden – too has similar surprisingly low ratings. Assuming Trump becomes the GOP presidential nominee, Biden and Trump will compete with each other in terms of their overall unpopularity.
Neither project vitality and vigor, with Trump having just turned 77 and Biden being 80. On top of that, the former president is facing complex legal challenges that not only rob him of the spotlight but might even land him in jail.
As such, it makes one ponder – will the Republican Party succeed in capitalizing on this opportunity in the form of a fatigued Democratic president by deciding to minimize risks and choosing a less controversial candidate such as DeSantis?
Only time will tell.
Professor Abraham Ben-Zvi and Dr. Gadi Warsha's upcoming book, published by Lamda-The Open University Press, is called "Knock of every door: Israel's foreign policy 1948-2018" (Hebrew).
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