In this dark weekend to Israel and the Free World, our thoughts and prayers go all to the victims of the horrendous terrorist attack committed by Hamas against Israel and their families. In this mourning period, we need to keep fighting everywhere so that the terrorists of Hamas and their allies pay a high price.
As for Vladimir Putin, the strategic interest of a Hamas offensive against Israel at this point is more than evident. Firstly, Russia is trying to create a proxy conflict (without being explicitly linked to it) to distract the world from its criminal war against Ukraine.
Secondly, Putin is seeking to test President Biden – more exactly, the Kremlin wants to assess how far is President Biden willing to go in order to defend a longtime and critical US ally such as Israel.
Thirdly, Russia knows that a prolonged war between Hamas and Israel might weaken the US capacity to support simultaneously Israel and Ukraine. Let's not forget that some months ago, it was reported that the US needed ammo to keep supporting Ukraine and could not help Israel restore its stockpile. Vladimir Putin took note of it. Moreover, having two simultaneous battles – in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – will create additional fatigue in the American public opinion's willingness to fight US foes overseas by providing military and economic aid. Vladimir Putin will explore this situation to try to put some daylight in the US-Israel alliance as well as to turn the public (both in the US and Israel) against Ukraine. In both scenarios, Vladimir Putin would score points.
Fourthly, Putin is scratching Hamas and Hezbollah's backs – and he is expecting Hamas and Hezbollah will eventually scratch his back in return. This is, Putin is buying Hamas and Hezbollah support for the war in Ukraine: He expects nothing short of these terrorist organizations' soldiers' mobilization to fight alongside Russian military forces against Ukraine. This leads to Putin's fifth grand goal of supporting (better say, instrumentalizing) Hamas against Israel.
Putin is planning to meddle big-time in the US 2024 Presidential election – not only through cyber attacks but also with psy ops specifically conducted against strategic targets. The Kremlin will do everything to promote isolationist politicians from both sides of the US political aisle, turning the support for Israel and Ukraine into central issues of the 2024 campaign. That is why it is so important that Biden responds decisively to Putin's aggression like the US President did after the Hamas attack against Israel: reaffirming American values, defending the unbreakable alliance between the US and Israel, and the right of Israel to defend itself against terrorism. Full stop. Once again, Biden showed the strength of American leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on his side, demonstrated statesmanship by inviting Yair Lapid and Benny Gatz to join a national emergency government.
Finally, Vladimir Putin – most certainly following a request from the Iranian ayatollah regime and with the discrete operational support of Qatar – is trying to tear apart the potential peace deal between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, mediated by the United States. Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman is now a target of Vladimir Putin's unlimited ambition of building a new world order: the Kremlin will stop at nothing to placate the Crown Prince from taking the helm of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Putin is actively supporting a member of the House of Saud with a background and profile similar to his own.
We do not know how long this war against Hamas will take. We do know, however, the fundamental part: Israel will win. As always.
