As NATO leaders gather in Washington to mark the alliance's 75th anniversary, US officials report that Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months. This assessment, shared with The New York Times, suggests a shift in the war's dynamics, which had previously favored Moscow.
Hello! Welcome to Washington, D.C. 🇺🇸
Capital of the United States, witness to the founding of NATO 75 years ago, and host of the 2024 #NATOSummit pic.twitter.com/YyB7rlcM8V
— NATO (@NATO) July 9, 2024
According to senior US officials speaking to The New York Times, Russian forces, hampered by inadequate training and facing reinforced Ukrainian defenses bolstered by Western munitions, are struggling to break through enemy lines. This development represents a notable change in the conflict's trajectory.
"Ukrainian forces are stretched thin and face difficult months of fighting ahead, but a major Russian breakthrough is now unlikely," said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
Throughout the spring and early summer, Russian troops attempted to seize territory outside the city of Kharkiv and renew their offensive in eastern Ukraine, aiming to capitalize on their capture of Avdiivka. However, these efforts have resulted in thousands of Russian casualties with minimal territorial gains, US officials told The New York Times.
While Russian forces continue to inflict damage, their incremental advances have been slowed by Ukraine's fortified defensive positions. The coming months are expected to be challenging for Ukraine, but allied leaders can argue that their efforts to strengthen the country's defense capabilities are yielding results.
The NATO summit in Washington is expected to address Ukraine's ongoing conflict and future within the alliance. Leaders are anticipated to pledge new funding for Ukraine, announce plans for coordinated weapons delivery, and reinforce their commitment to eventually granting Kyiv full membership in the organization.
