The series of offensives by Israel and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), including the targeted killings of Hezbollah commanders Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil (both in precision strikes in the Dahieh quarter, Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut) and two focused psychological-cyber operations targeting Hezbollah operatives' communication devices, led Secretart-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah to admit in his speech on Thursday that the organization had suffered its most severe blow since the terrorist organization was established.
Video: The impact site in northern Israel following a Hezbollah barrage on Sept. 23 / Usage under Israeli intellectual property law section 27a
The IDF's preemptive strike on Sunday, which neutralized an imminent retaliation threat, unexpectedly prompted Hezbollah to act. This move, contrary to Hezbollah's initial plans from August 25, was arguably forced by Israel's actions, making the organization's response over the past day almost inevitable.
Despite the escalating situation and the breach of unspoken rules that have governed the conflict for nearly a year, both Israel and Hezbollah seem to be establishing new boundaries. These limits, for now, are preventing the outbreak of all-out war.
Escalation boundaries
Israel is largely confining its attacks to southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah is targeting the area from Haifa to Tiberias and northward – ironically, the same battleground as the Second Lebanon War. Notably, Hezbollah hasn't yet unleashed its full firepower, refraining from massive rocket barrages or deploying precision-guided munitions.
In my assessment, Hezbollah is deliberately avoiding strikes south of Haifa, including the Tel Aviv area and critical infrastructure near Hadera. Such attacks would likely trigger a declaration of war, derailing the current, albeit tense, controlled engagement.
The situation remains precarious. Any significant event that Israel can't overlook could instantly change the dynamics. This underscores the critical dual role of air defense: not only to intercept incoming threats – a task being performed admirably so far – but also to give political leaders the upper hand in managing escalation. This capability is a significant strategic asset for Israel.
Challenges beyond the north
We can't lose sight of the ongoing southern campaign, complicated by the unresolved hostage situation and the government's need to prioritize between fronts, with the south being formally prioritized.
The past day has highlighted the reality of a multi-front conflict, with Iran and its proxies, including militias in Iraq, showing solidarity. This complex scenario demands that Israel's security forces remain vigilant on all fronts. As the Lebanon campaign intensifies, I anticipate increased challenges in the east and south as well.
The tipping point into all-out war will be clear: When we see IDF operations push north of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah starts targeting areas south of Haifa and the valleys. For now, we can only hope to avoid this seemingly inevitable escalation, even as we witness ongoing clashes.
The writer is a reserve brigadier general, former commander of the Israeli Air Defense Command, and a strategic advisor.
