Allegedly leaked documents on the social media platform X, attributed to the Pentagon, provide a rare glimpse into Israel's preparations for a potential military operation against Iran. Dated October 16, 2024, the documents detail heightened Israeli Air Force activity, likely in response to Iran's ballistic missile attack earlier this month.
According to the documents, the Israeli Air Force has recently conducted significant drills and "rehearsals", with activities dealing with air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBM), including at least 16 "Golden Horizon" missiles and 40 "Rocks" or ISO2 missiles. The documents also mention "covert drone activity" and extensive deployment drills.
At the Ramat David and Ramon Air Force bases, located in Israel, there was activity related to air-to-surface missiles (ASM). One document states: "On October 15, the Israeli Air Force handled what is likely an unidentified ASM at Ramat David Airbase. One unidentified ASM was in front of a hardened aircraft bunker, typically associated with precision-guided munitions."
An analysis by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) assesses that the activity is "almost certainly" preparation for an attack on Iran. The document also notes that Israel "likely" conducted an aerial refueling exercise on October 16, highlighting Israel's apparent capability to use drones for intelligence gathering in Iran and "across the region."
Importantly, the documents emphasize that no signs of intent to use nuclear weapons were observed. Furthermore, no activity related to the Jericho 2 missiles was noted on October 16, although it was mentioned that on October 1 - the day of the Iranian missile attack - these missiles were used by Israel, likely for defensive purposes.
Experts suggest that the leak might be intentional from the Pentagon, possibly to demonstrate control over information and influence public discourse in the US and Israel. It could also aim to counter criticism from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party toward the Biden administration, showing that the US maintains leverage over Israel.
It is worth noting that while the documents appear authentic, they have not been officially verified, and the information should be treated with appropriate caution. Nevertheless, the detailed and technical nature of their contents gives them additional credibility, and has sparked significant interest within the international intelligence and security community.
