Donald Trump's presidential campaign is banking on winning over disaffected young men, though getting this traditionally low-turnout demographic to the polls presents a significant challenge, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Election analysts and researchers note that young men vote at significantly lower rates compared to other demographic groups. This cohort shows higher levels of political disengagement than older generations and their female counterparts, while expressing growing skepticism toward traditional institutions.
"I've had to ask a couple of my friends to come out and vote," says Joompit Nakhapakorn, 23, a consultant in Milwaukee who attended Trump's rally there on Friday. "They're like, 'Do I have to vote? Is it a good use of my time?'"
Just updated the early voting results, now the % are even.
What are these 20%-ers?
This is so exhausting.
Congrats on 70M+ early voters. That's great.
It was 41/40/19… pic.twitter.com/cmlM8cra64
— doug (@mylifeIMO) November 2, 2024
While youth voting saw an uptick in the 2020 presidential election, the numbers remained well below older voter participation. Census Bureau surveys show that just over half of 18- to 24-year-olds voted in 2020, with men in this age group voting at lower rates than women. In contrast, approximately three-quarters of Americans aged 65 to 74 cast ballots that year.
Trump's campaign has deliberately targeted young male voters through appearances at a Philadelphia sneaker convention, an Ultimate Fighting Championship event in New Jersey, and on Joe Rogan's podcast. The strategy received a boost on Thursday with an endorsement from Jake Paul, a social media influencer and boxer with 20 million YouTube subscribers.
Luke Meihack, 25, a physical education teacher from Milwaukee's suburbs, represents the demographic Trump hopes to capture. "It's mostly guys. Guys are more big into Trump," he says. "He's a guy that speaks in a way that demands respect, and that appeals to a lot of guys."
The Trump campaign's masculine messaging strategy carries risks, potentially alienating female voters who already heavily favor Kamala Harris. At a recent Madison Square Garden rally, the event featured UFC Chief Executive Dana White and former wrestler Hulk Hogan, who entered carrying an American flag while tearing his shirt off. Some Trump supporters expressed concern about the rally's tone. "It was too bro-tastic!" says conservative broadcaster Megyn Kelly, warning that the spectacle could alienate women. "We don't need to rally the base or guys anymore."
Harris's campaign has countered with its own high-profile endorsements, including basketball star LeBron James. According to polling from Democratic-aligned Blueprint, James represents the most influential celebrity political endorsement among young men.
Recent data from Harvard University's Institute of Politics shows Harris leading Trump by 20 points among registered voters under 30. Among 18- to 29-year-old men who say they will definitely vote, Harris leads 55% to 38%. However, Trump holds an 11-point advantage among less certain male voters in the same age group.
"If you have a traditional electorate, Harris will win young men, likely by double digits," says John Della Volpe, the Institute of Politics polling director. "If Trump expands the electorate in similar ways that he did in 2016, it could be a different story."
He estimated that Trump could do 5 to 7 points better among young men than he did in 2020 – if they show up. "These young men are telling us they are disaffected from politics," he said. "They're incredibly skeptical, among the most skeptical among us. So encouraging them to participate in an institution they don't trust is hard."
