There are some news reports I've occasionally come across that have made me wonder if I've entered an alternate universe, where sanity has been thrown out the window.This happened last week when I saw that our government was trying to arrange for the Russians to reoccupy their recently abandoned naval and air force bases in Syria. Although the idea seemed bizarre, I didn't appreciate just how insane this initiative was until I saw the lengths to which our government was going to bring this about.
It seems that our government is extremely nervous about Turkey's neo Ottoman intentions with regard to post Assad Syria. This concern is not unfounded given the extremely close relationship between Turkey and the new Salafi regime in Damascus. Besides generous offers of reconstruction aid, Erdogan has also indicated a willingness to have the Turkish Army convert the HTS militia into a conventional fighting force, and to have the Turkish Air Force fly protective missions over Syria, presumably to deter us from striking targets of concern. There have also been reports that the Turkish Navy is keen to take over the former Russian naval base in Tartous. Perhaps most troubling of all, is Erdogan's desire to deploy Turkish ground forces into southern Syria. Should this occur, we could be facing an extremely volatile situation in the north, that might be much more dangerous than the one Iran previously presented. So, our government's fears about what Turkey is up to in Syria are quite rational. Having said this, it's how Bibi's administration is going about addressing this neo Ottoman threat that's problematic. Granted, the Israeli government has undertaken some highly appropriate measures against this potential Turkish threat, which we should acknowledge before we address the insanity they're now proposing.
Let's recall that shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, the Israeli Air Force conducted a devastating campaign over Syria that basically destroyed what remained of Assad's military assets. We quickly occupied Syria's strategic position atop Mount Hermon, moved into the 1974 disengagement zone, and offered to protect Syria's Druze community from being attacked by the new HTS rulers in Damascus. Taken as a whole, these actions constituted an excellent preventive response on our part to the possibility of Turkish and/or Salafi encroachments on our northern frontier. What the Israeli government is doing now, though, can only be described as the height of folly. Having the Russians insert themselves once again into Syria as some kind of buffer between the Turks and ourselves makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. It would only make an already highly unstable situation even worse.
In spite of this danger, several weeks ago Israeli intelligence agents presented American officials with a white paper cataloging Turkey's covert activities in Syria. This paper also suggested that one solution to this problem of Turkish meddling would involve President Trump lobbying his friend, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate new basing rights in Syria. Of course, missing from this report were all the subversive activities the Turkish Consulate in East Jerusalem was up to, which the Israeli government has so far declined to stop.
Be that as it may, our efforts to influence the Russians in this matter were further pursued by the arrival in Moscow of Bibi's Military Secretary, Major General Roman Gofman. Although he was ostensibly in the Russian capital to ask for Putin's help in freeing one of our hostages, Maxim Kharkin, Gofman's actual mission, was to discuss the possibility of Russia returning to its old Syrian bases in order to prevent the Turks from occupying them. In spite of our lobbying efforts, though, neither the Americans nor the Russians has officially responsed to our preposterous suggestion. But then something was reported this week that may suggest that the Russians are, indeed, making an effort to reach an agreement with Damascus that would allow them to keep their military bases in Syria.
According to The Wall Street Journal, back in January, senior Russian diplomats began discussions with the new Syrian government concerning Moscow's willingness to fund a number of significant economic projects in Syria. These reportedly would include the development of giant offshore gas concessions, phosphate mines and hydrocarbon fields near Palmyra and the construction of a fertilizer plant in Homs. The Russians also offered to complete a stalled port expansion project in Tartous, which was the location of their now abandoned naval base. Although there has been no indication that the Syrians have agreed to let the Russians move back into their old bases, these discussions are ongoing and apparently include Turkish representatives.
We should remember that when the Russians first sent an expeditionary force to Syria to prop up the Bashar Assad regime, it caused great concern within the IDF. The presence of Russian manned S-300/400 air defense batteries, in particular, was something that always had to be factored in to our air operations over Syria. Later, after we had signed a deconfliction agreement with the Russians, it looked as if we'd found a way of continuing our so-called "war between the wars" campaign against the Iranians without running the risk of inadvertently precipitating a war with Russia. Then, the Russo-Ukrainian War began, resulting in closer relations between Iran and Russia due to the latter's increasing dependence upon Iranian attack drones and other critical military equipment. But before this closer alliance between Moscow and Tehran could coalesce into a serious threat to our northern frontier, the Russian expeditionary force had to be significantly reduced in order to help reinforce the Russian Army's battered formations fighting the Ukrainians. Eventually, the Russian bases in Syria were later evacuated due to the surprise victory of Turkey's Salafi surrogates, who have understandably shown no interest in allowing the Russians to reestablish their military presence in Syria. More to the point, the Turks seem to be totally opposed to compromising their Syrian sphere of interest by sharing any part of it with Moscow. And confirmed reports indicate that Erdogan has made his position on this issue abundantly clear to the new regime in Damascus. Of course, Erdogan's perspective on this matter could theoretically change but, so far, he seems to be adamantly opposed to seeing the Russians regain their Eastern Mediterranean outposts. But, as has happened many times in the past, firm statements issued by Middle East despots may just be masking changed strategic perspectives on their part.
But why the Israeli government would want the Russians back in Syria is totally beyond me. There is just no logic to it. We spent years trying to work around the Russian presence in Syria and now that they have left, we want them back again? Unfortunately, by attempting to bring this about, all we've succeeded in accomplishing is to demonstrate our fear of Turkey. That can only serve to encourage Erdogan's aggressiveness and contempt for us. This is why I've advocated a policy of preparing for war with Turkey. This would involve rejecting any attempt by Erdogan to either establish military bases in Syria or troop deployments on our northern border.
Simply put, the best way of containing a megalomaniac like Erdogan, is to make sure he realizes that we're no push overs and that any attempt on his part to intimidate us will only backfire on him. On the other hand, if we want to ask for help from President Trump, I think this is where his relationship with Erdogan could be quite useful. A few cautionary words from President Trump just might convince Erdogan that he would be better off concentrating on improving his country's economy rather than trying to recreate the Ottoman Empire. Indeed, given Trump's desire to be seen as a "peace maker", our request would probably appeal to him.
