Mossad Director David Barnea is set to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Doha, amid ongoing efforts to broker a deal for the release of all hostages in exchange for a ceasefire. The visit is especially significant in light of Qatar's recent shift regarding the demand for Hamas to disarm.
The most significant development in recent days in the secret negotiations over a hostage deal and ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is Qatar's agreement to the demand that Hamas disarm "the day after."
This marks a major change, as Qatar had previously remained neutral on the issue. Now, the Gulf state is pressing Hamas to comply. The implication is that most of Hamas' leadership, who are currently under Qatar's protection, might now be more amenable to a framework involving a long-term ceasefire in exchange for the release of all hostages, and the surrender of Hamas' weapons, effectively ending its capacity to operate as a military force in Gaza.
International sources familiar with the negotiations told Israel Hayom that Qatar's shift followed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi's visit to Doha last week. During his meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the two leaders discussed their joint mediation efforts in the Gaza conflict. El-Sissi managed to convince the Emir to abandon neutrality on the disarmament issue.
This message has since been conveyed to Hamas during contacts in Doha. Hamas has not changed its public rhetoric, continuing to reject any notion of disarmament or an end to the muqawama, the armed resistance against Israel. However, Hamas now finds itself increasingly isolated in this stance. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas joined the public call this week, bluntly urging Hamas to disarm and transform into a political party. Abbas reiterated the principle of "one gun" for the Palestinians and accused Hamas of being responsible for the destruction of Gaza and the deaths of tens of thousands.
An Israeli intelligence official assessed that the chances of reaching a deal have indeed improved due to this added pressure on Hamas. However, the source cautioned that Hamas appears to be stalling and that further levers of pressure, including continued military pressure, are needed.
"Hamas' current strategy is to run out the clock, hoping that Israel will be the one to break," the official said. "They are betting on a drop in the intensity of fighting to a level that is tolerable for them, and most importantly, on the resumption of supply deliveries. First, because of the internal disputes in Israel and the protest movement calling for an immediate hostage deal, even without disarming Hamas.
Second, because the humanitarian crisis in the Strip is reaching a critical low point. Supplies are about to run out, at least for the civilian population. Hamas, on the other hand, has enough to last a while longer. This will increase international pressure on Israel, forcing it to agree to renewed supply deliveries. And third, and perhaps most crucially, President Donald Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia next month, and he prefers an agreement to be reached before his arrival."
The second factor is the main reason why the Defense Ministry has been working on a central aid distribution plan under Israel Defense Forces supervision, as previously revealed by Israel Hayom and currently being discussed in the security cabinet. Success in implementing this system could create a dramatic new lever of pressure on Hamas' leadership. But this effort also faces numerous challenges: ensuring the safety of IDF troops and identifying the entities that will actually carry out the distribution on the ground.
