"The recent US actions have not harmed Israeli interests. There's close coordination between [Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron] Dermer and the administration, but Trump is unpredictable." So said a senior Israeli official over the weekend, capturing the mood in Jerusalem amid the flurry of declarations coming from the president just days before his visit to the region, a visit that may yet bring new surprises.
Each declaration comes with its own rationale, sometimes even a compelling one. But the fact that Israel cannot anticipate Washington's next move on what it considers the most critical issue, the Iranian nuclear program, leaves ample room for concern, even within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's inner circle.
Take the most recent development: The American aid plan unveiled late last week by the US ambassador to Israel is, in fact, an Israeli initiative. It was conceived by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and approved by the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet alongside operational plans for Gaza. The American endorsement mainly signals to the world that the US stands behind Israel, while guaranteeing humanitarian aid to the Gaza population in a renewed Israeli framework designed to prevent it from falling into the hands of the terrorist group Hamas.
Meanwhile, a Reuters report describing Trump's push for a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, and notably without requiring an agreement with Israel, actually came as a relief in Jerusalem, according to senior officials. The Biden administration understood that Israel, under its current coalition government, cannot agree to the concessions Saudi Arabia is demanding, chiefly, a commitment to a pathway for a Palestinian state, and therefore refrained from pressing the issue and potentially destabilizing the coalition.
On the other hand, officials here remain confident that Trump cannot push through a deal with the Saudis in the US, particularly not with Republican support, without a green light from Israel. Still, despite this optimistic reading, Trump is arriving in the region next week to close deals, and it's far from certain he'll allow Israeli interests to constrain him. It wouldn't be the first time.
Between Yemen and Tehran
The recent US announcement that it would halt attacks on the Houthis took Israel by surprise. Still, officials here say the substance of the move aligns with Trump's stated goal of ending strikes on US vessels. However, the timing and the decision to publicize the agreement brokered by Oman were seen in Jerusalem as a possible preview of how talks with Iran could unfold, a surprise agreement that leaves Israel with no opportunity to intervene or object.
Despite his support for Israel, Trump is president of the US, not of the Jewish state. His mission to make America great again, in his view, runs through business deals and big money. That's why he's headed to the Gulf this week and is likely to skip Israel. There may be affection here, but no oil, and as the saying goes - love doesn't put food on the table or win a war with China.
Even the data support the notion that Trump is fond of the small Jewish state. An analysis of his posts during his first 100 days in office, conducted by researchers at the Glazer Center of the Jewish People Policy Institute, reviewed 1,276 text posts published on Trump's social network, Truth Social. The results show that the topic of "Israel", including references to Jews and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ranked fourth among mentions of foreign countries, alongside Canada, and was mentioned more often than France or even Mexico, the US's neighbor to the south.
