Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared for President Donald Trump's tour in the Middle East, leaving Israel sidelined. Beyond the diplomatic preparations - which included extensive consultations with cabinet ministers, senior defense officials, and Trump's own emissaries - a smaller, more discreet team has recently convened. This team, entrusted with sensitive matters, is focused not on diplomacy or security, but on political and media strategies.
Their working assumption, still in place, is that the plans they have developed will never need to be executed and will remain permanently shelved. Still, the team did its work and compiled materials. If these ever see the light of day, it will mean Netanyahu has concluded that relations with Trump are beyond repair, and that a new strategy is required.
The initial assumption was that such a scenario was highly unlikely. But a secondary assumption was also adopted: if confrontation becomes inevitable, Trump is far more vulnerable than Biden or Obama - leaders Netanyahu openly sparred with. There would be no need to deliver a dramatic speech before Congress to strike Trump where it hurts most: his Republican, Christian base, which supports Israel unconditionally.
Instead, merely amplifying discontent from Israel could trigger Republican senators, conservative commentators, and right-wing influencers to pressure Trump into aligning quickly with Israel's position. Despite concerns in Jerusalem about several of Trump's recent statements, the ammunition prepared remains unused. Trump will be tested by his actions, not his words, and he has never lacked for those.
A senior minister, frequently involved in classified discussions, is leading the push for this approach, arguing that Israel holds significant leverage over Trump. In one cabinet meeting, he clashed with another minister who contended that this strategy was patronizing and unrealistic. Trump in his second term, he said, would be less beholden to his base or Evangelicals. He commands absolute control over the Republican Party and cannot be undermined.
At the same time, there has been work on a parallel message, reconciliation and renewed closeness with Trump. The key talking points: Trump is far better for Israel than Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It was Trump's policies that allowed the bombing of Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar using munitions that Biden had denied. Israel's military presence in strategic points across Lebanon and the Syrian Golan Heights, as well as its continued hold on parts of Gaza, would likely not be tolerated under Biden or Harris. Even on the issue of the Houthis in Yemen, Trump did more than Biden. He resolved the blockade on shipping lanes that Biden had left closed for over a year. With Trump, "America First" doesn't mean abandoning Israel. These messages resonated both in Israel and in the US this past week.
A tenuous reassurance
"Netanyahu, a league of his own," proclaimed the 2019 Likud campaign billboards, which featured a beaming Trump gazing admiringly at Netanyahu. The message was clear: with Trump in the White House, America was in Netanyahu's hands, as long as Israelis kept him in power. This week, however, that campaign looked outdated and detached, clashing starkly with the current narrative: Trump now prioritizes America's interests, not Israel's. That message echoed through every studio and political analysis in Israel over the past few days.
Is Trump distancing himself from Netanyahu, and from Israel altogether? Is this a temporary shift or the beginning of a new trend? These questions reverberated through Jerusalem, including in high-level security forums attended by Netanyahu.
Even among those who favored the more lenient interpretation, that Trump should be allowed this week to milk the trillions he seeks from those who can afford it (and from Israel, frankly, he cannot), and who viewed his remarks and actions through that lens without taking them too seriously, it was hard to find anyone who would state that position with full conviction. Not even Netanyahu himself. While Trump's aides went to great lengths to dispel the perception of a rift, their reassurances failed to fully convince.
Maintaining red lines
The week of Trump's Gulf tour had long been marked on Israel's diplomatic calendar. So too was the decision to grit its teeth and wait for the storm to pass. The greatest concern was that Trump might use the trip to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza before Hamas is fully dismantled and all strategic goals are achieved, including the demilitarization of the Strip.
Israel's current defense strategy, under Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, is to retain long-term control over the territories captured during the conflict. But Trump's visit to Arab states, many of which oppose this stance, cast doubt over that policy.
Despite preemptive moves, such as Netanyahu's rushed visit to Washington from Budapest and the dispatch of Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to the White House before Trump's Gulf departure, there was no certainty these efforts would succeed. One minister warned Netanyahu that Trump would spend the week hearing only one thing from Arab leaders: end the war, Israel is starving Gaza, and a political solution is urgently needed. And since Trump was bypassing Israel on the trip, no counter-narrative would be presented.
Despite efforts to prevent surprises, Trump delivered at least one unexpected blow: he moved to warm ties with the new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, contrary to Israel's recent shift toward an openly confrontational posture. While Trump's camp insisted Israel had been informed in advance, officials in Jerusalem were stunned.
The shock wasn't about al-Sharaa himself, but about Turkey's potential gain from lifted sanctions. With no American deterrence, Turkey could soon funnel advanced weapons into Syria. The real threat isn't from Syrian troops, but from Turkish forces potentially stationed on Israel's northern border. Israel is still mulling its response to this development.
As usual, the opposition celebrated what they branded Netanyahu's failure, ignoring the broader national interest in maintaining strong US ties. For many critics, any blow to Netanyahu is worth celebrating, no matter the cost. They lashed out from both the right and the left, often in the same breath.
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid declared that "Trump is fed up with Netanyahu." Similar sentiments were echoed by lawmakers from Labor, Meretz, and Yisrael Beytenu. Their criticism? That Israel has failed to "open the gates of hell" in Gaza as Trump demanded early in his new term, while simultaneously calling for a hostage deal and a ceasefire.
Critics also argued that Netanyahu failed to align Israel with Trump's strategic interests ahead of the Gulf visit, leaving Israel excluded from emerging regional alliances and watching helplessly from the sidelines.
Two unviable options
There are only two ways to fit into Trump's regional map: invest huge sums in the US - which Israel cannot afford, as Trump's ask from Saudi Arabia alone dwarfs Israel's entire state budget - or revive the old fantasy of normalization in exchange for surrendering Gaza and the West Bank.
The latter would put Israel back on Trump's radar but would also endanger its security and signal weakness to its enemies, especially coming after the worst Arab massacre since the Israel's founding. Nothing would reward terrorism more.
Netanyahu firmly rejects this approach. It complicated his ties with Obama and Biden, and if necessary, he's prepared to clash with Trump too. The Abraham Accords are his legacy precisely because they did not involve territorial concessions. Giving up land or recognizing full Palestinian statehood would undermine not only future peace efforts but even the existing agreements with the four Arab nations that signed them, by reinforcing suspicions that they were based on secret promises of a future Palestinian state.
