The intelligence failures that preceded the Swords of Iron War are expected to include a significant section on the Houthis. For nearly a decade, a new military threat to Israel had been building in Yemen. But it received little attention, as greater concern was placed on perceived more immediate threats like Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Though the Houthis were occasionally mentioned in defense briefings and assessments, it was mostly in passing. Despite Israel's awareness of the Houthis' long-range capabilities, many were caught off guard when the group launched dozens of missiles and drones at Israel, and increased their rate of fire over time. According to Israeli military data, out of the dozens of missiles fired at Israel, about 45 penetrated Israeli airspace, with more than 25 of them since mid-March, when the Israel Defense Forces resumed combat in the Gaza Strip.
Throughout the prolonged fighting, Israeli air defense achieved phenomenal interception rates, over 90%. But as repeatedly proven during the war, no defense system is perfect. The few that get through can cause significant damage. Two weeks ago, a Yemeni missile that eluded both the US THAAD system and Israel's Arrow system left a massive crater at Israel's main international airport. It marked a significant psychological win for the Houthis and led dozens of foreign airlines to suspend flights to Israel indefinitely. Contrary to Houthi claims, the missiles they launch at Israel are not hypersonic and lack special maneuvering abilities. But interception systems can still fail for a variety of reasons.
Iran's testbed
To understand how to potentially counter the Houthi threat, it is useful to revisit the group's roots and how it came to power. The Houthis are an extremist Shiite movement from Yemen's northern Saada province, formed in part due to neglect by the Yemeni government and growing Shiite zealotry inspired by the Iranian revolution. Yemen lacks advanced Western-style communication and IT infrastructure, and the Houthis themselves live simply, relying on far-flung tribal networks.
The group promotes a vehemently anti-Western ideology, with the slogan: "Death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam." Like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis operate a civilian wing that claims to provide public services, alongside an armed faction that has grown into a de facto army.
They began rising up against the local government in 2004. Ironically, the harsh crackdown only strengthened them. The Arab Spring in 2011 gave them further momentum, and by the end of 2014, they had seized Sana'a, Yemen's capital, and became the de facto ruling force in northern Yemen.
From 2015 to April 2022, the Houthis fought a coalition of Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which sought to restore Yemen's former Sunni government. Throughout the conflict, Iran provided the Houthis with substantial financial aid and massive quantities of ammunition, personal weapons, missiles, and drones, effectively using Yemen as a testing ground for its military hardware.
During those seven years of war, the Houthis launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, targeting both civilian and military infrastructure. Some of those missiles had ranges of up to 1,200 kilometers (750 miles).
"More urgent threats"
At the time, Israel mostly observed the developments from afar. Some red flags did appear, especially after major attacks on Saudi and Emirati targets, such as a March 2021 strike on Aramco oil facilities. The very next day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps made veiled threats linking the Houthi attack to a possible strike on Eilat. The message was clear: the Houthis could serve as an Iranian proxy against Israel.
Once the fighting with the Arab states ended, the Houthis retained a substantial arsenal of drones, cruise missiles, and long-range ballistic missiles. Some in Israel warned that once the Houthis finished their war in Saudi Arabia, they would turn their weapons on Israel. In June 2022, then-Defense Minister Benny Gantz said the Houthis were amassing dozens of such weapons in violation of international arms embargoes. Less than a month before October 7, 2023, the Houthis unveiled a new long-range missile believed by most analysts to be intended for Israel. Still, intelligence gathering on the Houthis remained a low priority, overshadowed by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
On October 27, 2023, Houthi drones reached the Gulf of Eilat for the first time and were intercepted. Four days later, they launched their first surface-to-surface missile at Israel. Since then, the pace of attacks has fluctuated in correlation with Israeli operations in Gaza: they decrease when Israel pauses its campaign, and intensify when combat resumes.
For many Israelis, the Houthis are a confusing enemy, seemingly primitive, yet armed with advanced weapons backed by a state sponsor. With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened, the Houthis have taken the lead within the Iranian-led Shiite axis, triggering mass alerts that drive millions of Israelis into bomb shelters and causing significant economic and logistical damage. Their prominence in attacks against Israel has only boosted their confidence and motivation.
Too far, too isolated, too determined
For four months, Israel refrained from striking the Houthis militarily, leaving the task to the US. The Americans carried out hundreds of airstrikes, but they failed to halt the rocket fire. According to estimates, the Houthis continue to manufacture a small number of missiles weekly, and their stockpile still includes dozens, if not hundreds more, that could be fired at Israel.
Israel has conducted several strikes in Yemen, mainly targeting economic infrastructure such as ports and airports. Just last Friday, Israeli forces hit Houthi-run ports. However, analysts believe that within a month, the Houthis will be able to resume operations at the damaged facilities. In fact, last weekend, they already resumed using an airport that had been bombed only a week earlier. Past experience suggests that neither Israeli nor American airstrikes are enough to halt Houthi aggression, and that the group's poor living conditions make economic pressure ineffective as a deterrent.
Yemen's distance from Israel makes routine airstrikes extremely challenging. It is doubtful that the Houthis can be defeated militarily, especially given their resilience, isolated geography, and ability to withstand prolonged pressure.
The war in Israel has transformed the Houthis from an obscure fringe group into a central regional player and a challenge to the entire region. They have already severely harmed Egypt's economy, paralyzed the Port of Eilat, and continue to expand their influence. To their delight, even the Americans have recently halted military action against them, with former US President Donald Trump saying the US had "surrendered" to the Houthis.
Some believe that, like Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis can only be defeated with "boots on the ground", an option Israel is very unlikely to consider. Local anti-Houthi forces in Yemen cannot succeed without broad external backing. Another approach under consideration is to strike Iran, which funds and arms the Houthis. But even that may not stop the rocket fire, as the Houthis are not directly subordinate to the Iranian regime.
The bottom line, as of now, is that no one in Israel is optimistic the Houthi missile threat can be stopped by military force alone. The frequent sirens sending millions of Israelis into shelters may continue, as long as the Houthis choose to keep launching rockets.
