In direct conversations with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, and other diplomats, Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar made clear that if countries proceed with recognizing a Palestinian state without negotiations, Israel may respond by applying sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria. One of the leading response options under consideration includes extending Israeli law to Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria, and potentially also to areas in the Jordan Valley and elsewhere.
The international conference is slated for June 17–20 in New York, with June 18 expected to serve as the main day for public declarations. Macron aims to orchestrate a joint recognition of Palestinian statehood by multiple countries, a move he argues would advance peace. However, Israeli officials sharply reject this premise, calling it both a moral betrayal in light of the October 7 massacre and a diplomatic blunder that offers the Palestinians concessions without requiring any reciprocity. They also accuse Macron of going back on previous assurances to Israel that he would not pursue this initiative.
As of now, Israel has not finalized its response strategy, which will depend on the summit's outcomes. Still, Israeli officials are preparing for the possibility of unilateral steps in retaliation.
Earlier this month, Sa'ar issued a public threat of Israeli countermeasures if Western countries proceed with recognition of Palestinian statehood. "Such initiatives are destructive. They would only reward Hamas terrorism. Any unilateral move will harm the prospect of a future bilateral process between Israel and the Palestinians—and compel us to take unilateral measures in response," Sa'ar told his German counterpart, Johann Wadephul.
The US, at Israel's request, has confirmed it will not participate in the conference. However, Washington has not, at this stage, taken active steps to dissuade other nations from attending.
A number of key European countries have already declined to support Macron's initiative. Leading the opposition is Germany, followed by several of Israel's European allies, including Hungary and the Czech Republic. In a surprising turn, Luxembourg's foreign minister stated her country would not support unilateral recognition, though it may revisit the matter after the conference. On the other hand, Spain and Malta have expressed support, although both had already recognized a Palestinian state years ago.
In Britain, which last week announced a series of punitive steps against Israel, no final decision has been made. Belgium, considered one of Israel's most critical interlocutors in Europe, has stated that its recognition of Palestinian statehood would be subject to certain conditions.
According to Western diplomats, Macron's proposal remains unclear in terms of its final elements. While pushing for recognition, the French president has also called for reforms within the Palestinian Authority—though it remains uncertain how he plans to enforce such demands. His initiative reportedly includes commitments to disarm the terrorist organization Hamas and to secure recognition of Israel by Arab and Muslim states. However, officials in Jerusalem dismiss these promises as out of touch with reality, with one senior official calling them "a joke."
