Operation "Rising Lion" launched on Thursday night appears to fulfill at least part of the optimistic scenario outlined in recent months. According to initial reports, Israel struck a series of strategic Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities, with senior Iranian officials were eliminated – among them Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards Commander Hussein Salami.
Currently, no Israeli casualties have been reported, and the Revolutionary Guards headquarters in Tehran was reported as damaged. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir announced that "we launched an attack because the time had come, we have reached the point of no return."
If the initial reports prove accurate, the Israeli strike unfolds similarly to the optimistic scenario previously described here – reports of damage to nuclear facilities, with no Israeli casualties reported so far, while exploiting the situation where Iran has difficulties with air defense and its terror forces are weakened. It remains too early to determine the true scope of the operation's success.
A senior Israeli official claimed that three nuclear sites were attacked, with initial assessments speaking of precise strikes. According to reports, long-range missile launch sites, air defense systems, and military airfields were also targeted.
The strike included, according to reports, use of advanced capabilities and not just the Israeli Air Force. Iranian television reported that the Revolutionary Guards headquarters in Tehran was damaged, and the Iranian news agency reported explosions in areas northeast of Tehran. However, the full scope of the damage cannot yet be assessed.
Iran is expected to respond by launching missiles, with secondary assistance from the Houthis in Yemen, but Israel's air defense system – with active assistance from the United States and other regional allies – is prepared to intercept most of the launched missiles. Israel's airspace has been closed to takeoffs and landings, and studies have been canceled throughout the country.
The Home Front Command instructed civilians to stay near protected areas. Do not linger in open areas and beaches. Police forces and municipal enforcement are currently patrolling beaches. If a warning is heard, enter a protected space and wait at least 10 minutes.
The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet convened to approve the operation, and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar is conducting a marathon of calls with his counterparts worldwide. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that "Iran still has capabilities to harm us – the operation will continue until we repel the threat."
In the shadow of the Iran strike, sounds of gunfire and explosions were heard in Iraq, with authorities declaring closure of airspace. Growing assessments suggest that foreign reports of a second wave of Israeli strikes are occurring.
The attack expresses what was previously defined here as the optimistic scenario – complete damage to nuclear facilities, without Israeli casualties, while exploiting the situation where Iran lacks effective air defense and its terror forces are weakened. Now remains to be seen whether the picture develops as in the outlined scenario – with collapse of the Iranian currency, mass protests, and perhaps even toppling of the regime.
The political reality in the Middle East may change tectonically. Israel could be accepted as victorious and lead a move that ends the war in Gaza, returns the hostages, distances Hamas leaders from the Strip, and brings full normalization with Saudi Arabia and additional countries.
However, one must remember that the Israeli strike constitutes a declaration of open war on Iran. Iran will certainly claim that elimination of its people in Syria and Lebanon and damage to its proxies were the trigger for its response, which was self-defense, and from the moment Israel attacked its nuclear facilities, it had no choice but to defend itself by all means.
The operation that was carried out places Israel before significant challenges – the need to deepen the damage if required, defense against Iranian retaliation, and fortifying the political and domestic fronts. The complete picture of the operation's achievements and consequences will become clear in the coming days.
