American intelligence agencies have uncovered evidence that Iran has positioned missiles and additional military hardware for potential attacks against US installations throughout the Middle East, should Washington decide to support Israel's ongoing military operations against the Islamic Republic, according to officials who have examined classified intelligence assessments.
The Pentagon has deployed approximately three dozen aerial refueling aircraft to European locations, equipment that could support fighter jets defending American military installations or extend the operational range of bombers in any potential assault on Iranian atomic sites, The New York Times reported.
Concerns about a broader regional conflict are mounting among US officials as Israel intensifies pressure on the White House to participate in its confrontation with Iran, according to The New York Times. Should the United States enter the Israeli military campaign and target Fordo, a critical Iranian nuclear complex, the Iranian-supported Houthi forces will almost inevitably restart their attacks on maritime vessels in the Red Sea, officials stated. They noted that pro-Iranian armed groups operating in Iraq and Syria would likely attempt assaults on American military installations in those nations.
Additional officials indicated that during any attack scenario, Iran might deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy designed to trap US naval vessels within the Persian Gulf.
Military commanders have placed American personnel on heightened security status at installations across the region, encompassing locations in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The United States maintains more than 40,000 military personnel stationed throughout the Middle East.
Two Iranian government officials have confirmed that their country would launch attacks against US military bases in the Middle East, beginning with facilities in Iraq, if the United States joined Israel's military operations.
Iran would additionally target any American installations located in Arab nations that participate in an attack, the two officials stated.
"Our enemies should know that they cannot reach a solution with military attacks on us and will not be able to force their will on the Iranian people," Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement on Monday. Araghchi informed his European counterparts during telephone discussions that if the conflict expanded, responsibility would rest with Israel and its primary supporters, according to a summary of the conversations released by Iran's foreign ministry.
US officials indicated Iran would require minimal preparation time to assault American installations in the region, The New York Times reported. The Iranian armed forces maintain missile installations within effective striking distance of Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates.
The possibility of US forces entering the conflict has intensified in recent days as Israel has maintained its military operations, and Iran has responded by launching multiple missile barrages at Israel.
The extent of damage a strike on Fordo would inflict on Iran's nuclear capabilities remains unclear, as does the duration it would delay weapons development. Iran's existing stockpile of enriched uranium is concealed in underground tunnels at various sites throughout the country.
Multiple American officials stated that Israel would require US assistance to substantially damage Iran's nuclear infrastructure, according to The New York Times.
American support could encompass providing aerial protection for Israeli special forces conducting ground operations inside Iran. However, officials suggested the more likely scenario involves strikes by US B-2 stealth bombers equipped with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a weapon theoretically capable of penetrating the mountain protecting the subterranean Fordo complex. Any US strike on Fordo or American assistance in such an operation would trigger retaliation from Iran and its regional partners.
Iran and its allies have previously inflicted casualties on Americans. The Houthis reduced their attacks following increased strikes by the Trump administration. Nevertheless, in recent years they have repeatedly attempted to target American warships and have successfully hit commercial vessels. In January 2024, an Iranian-backed armed group executed a drone assault on a US installation in Jordan near the Syrian border, killing three American service members.
American intelligence organizations have consistently determined that Iran was approaching the capability to produce a nuclear weapon but had not made the decision to proceed. If Iran chose to develop a weapon, it would be less than one year away from deploying one. A basic, crude nuclear device could potentially be assembled more rapidly.
President Trump has consistently declared he will not permit Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. On Tuesday, he demanded Iran's unconditional surrender.
However, the Israeli attacks may have altered Iran's strategic calculations. US officials critical of Israel's military campaign stated on Tuesday that it has likely persuaded Tehran that developing a complete nuclear deterrent represents the only method to prevent future attacks.
Some of those officials suggested that if Iran appears determined to pursue nuclear weapons regardless of circumstances, pressure might intensify on the Trump administration to conduct strikes.
Nevertheless, opponents of aggressive, militaristic foreign policy maintained it was not too late for the United States to reverse course.
"It is never too late not to start a war," said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a restrained foreign policy.
Kelanic acknowledged that Israel's strike had provided Iran with an incentive to potentially develop a nuclear weapon. However, she added that the incentive would "multiply dramatically if the United States joins the war."
"Once you get involved, man, it's really hard to step back," she said. "You are just going to go all in."
