Iran's oil exports have plummeted from around 2.5 million barrels per day to just 150,000 barrels, according to figures obtained by Israel Hayom. The dramatic plunge follows the outbreak of war with Israel and threatens to choke off one of the Islamic Republic's most vital revenue streams.
A US Treasury Department source familiar with the data said the figures are based on intelligence from Kpler, a company specializing in global trade monitoring. Most of the limited oil that is still being exported is being laundered in the Indian Ocean before arriving at refineries in China. The steep decline has already cost Iran over $1 billion in revenue since the war began on June 13. If the trend continues, the regime stands to lose roughly $5 billion per month.
Several factors are driving the downturn. Domestic demand at Iranian refineries has surged due to critical shortages of fuel for industry, transportation and energy production. Tehran is also concerned about possible strikes on its export terminals and is intentionally curbing exports to manipulate global prices while blaming Israel for the resulting hikes, hoping the move will generate American pressure for a new agreement. At the same time, Iran has been removing large volumes of oil from storage facilities in the Gulf, relocating them further afield to shield them from attack.
Oil has become a key issue in US President Donald Trump's deliberations over a potential military strike on Iran. The central fear in Washington is that Tehran might act on its threats to block the Strait of Hormuz or target oil fields and infrastructure in the Gulf, which would severely impact US allies in the region. Chief among them, Saudi Arabia has conveyed a clear message to Washington: diplomacy is preferable, and a conflict that endangers oil exports, which account for around 30% of global supply, must be avoided.
Despite Iran's efforts, the global price of oil has only risen modestly. This is largely thanks to increased output by other producers, especially Saudi Arabia, which has moved quickly to fill the gap.
