The US intends to present Iran with three baseline demands for reentering negotiations: a total ban on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the removal of all highly enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled, and limitations on future missile production. According to reports on Wednesday, another round of talks between the parties is scheduled for next week – the first since the military campaign in Iran began.
These conditions indicate that not all of Iran's enriched uranium was eliminated during joint US-Israeli strikes. On the eve of the campaign, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran had amassed 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% – enough for more than 10 nuclear bombs if further enriched to weapons-grade 90%.
Washington and Jerusalem are concerned that if Iran still retains a significant portion of this material, it might secretly accelerate its nuclear ambitions or develop a radiological weapon. Intelligence agencies are now prioritizing close surveillance to ensure Tehran remains far from nuclear capability.
The US demand carries an implicit warning: if Iran refuses to surrender its enriched uranium, it risks facing another military strike. That threat is underscored by the dual strategic success of the recent campaign – severe damage inflicted by Israel on Iran's nuclear program, with potential repercussions for regime stability, and the US attack that signaled a firm commitment to preventing Iran's return to the nuclear path.
These preconditions were also put forward during prior negotiations that preceded the campaign launched on June 13. At the time, Iran rejected them, insisting on its right to continue uranium enrichment. But Tehran's position has since weakened dramatically, following assessments by intelligence officials and nuclear experts that the strikes significantly set back its nuclear development.
On Wednesday, Israel's Atomic Energy Commission stated that "the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other components of Iran's military nuclear program, have pushed back Iran's nuclear weapon capability by many years."
The commission is Israel's lead authority on nuclear issues. Its unusually public statement coincided with ongoing assessments by the IDF's Technical Intelligence Arena, a division within Military Intelligence, which is analyzing damage to nuclear facilities but has yet to issue a final report.
However, the Military Intelligence Directorate recently concluded that Iran's nuclear program suffered a major blow. The combined effect of physical strikes on sites and infrastructure – including labs, offices, production and development facilities, some in Tehran – along with targeted killings of scientists, will severely hamper Iran's nuclear progress in the coming years.
It was revealed Wednesday that Israel eliminated 11 senior Iranian nuclear scientists during the campaign – nine in the initial wave of attacks and two more later, the last just hours before the fighting ended. All the targeted scientists were directly involved in Iran's military nuclear project, with some working in the so-called "weapon group."
