Despite the uneasy and artificial "peace" agreement, imposed recently (and arguably prematurely) by Donald Trump, the debate still rages, and speculation still swirls around the Iran-Israel conflict—particularly over the irksome question as to how it will play out in the long run.
A war concluded, not resolved
In this regard, it should be clear to any sober observer that the current Iranian regime cannot ever agree to genuinely forgo its pursuit of nuclear weapons—even if it does so temporarily, in the short run, as a survival tactic. After all, for the last quarter century, it has been the flagship enterprise of the regime.
Accordingly, abandoning its nuclear ambitions now, under duress, will be indelible proof of error, failure, and worse, of weakness. Clearly, for a regime that rules solely on the basis of might, this is an unacceptable situation, tolerable only as a transitory deception.
Indeed, in a recent paper entitled The Israel–Iran War: Concluded but not Resolved, a well-known research institute cautioned: "…Iran is expected to portray the battle as a success, regardless of its military outcomes" and pondered "… whether Israel's gains can be preserved through diplomatic arrangements, or whether it will need to enforce them militarily."
Adding to this concern are numerous reports that the aerial bombardment of Tehran's nuclear installations may have been less devastating than originally thought—raising the specter of a resurgent Iranian nuclear program.
A tapestry of ethnicities
This is the reason that regime change must be a minimal imperative for Israel at the end of the hostilities—which are likely only to delay, not eradicate, the perils that precipitated the recent conflict.
It is because of this that, to ensure the permanent defanging of Iran, Israel must aspire to a goal beyond regime change. It must focus its efforts on inducing the disintegration of the country in its present configuration into several self-governing ethnic entities—principally non-Persian ones.
It is important to note that Iran's population is far from monolithic. To the contrary, it is a heterogeneous mixture of diverse ethnicities, almost equally divided between Persians (50-60%) and non-Persians. Thus, as a recent publication by the MEMRI research institute points out, the overall population comprises- among others - Kurds in the west, Baloch in the southeast, Ahwazi Arabs in the south, Azeris in the northwest, and Turkmen in the northeast. Other groups include the Lurs and the Lak people.
Conditions ripe for secession?
As the MEMRI document points out, there have been tensions between Tehran and the more remote ethnicities, who have suffered varying degrees of oppression for decades. Among their grievances are: Having no rights to speak their language, no political power, and often being targeted with violence by the central regime. All this enhances their motivation for resistance. Moreover, as they typically live in the border regions, this makes it easier for them to conduct contacts with neighboring countries and challenge Tehran's control. Harboring a sense of betrayal at the hands of both the Ayatollahs and the Shah, they have a deep distrust of central authority emanating from Tehran.
Clearly, these are conditions ripe not only for insurrection but for possible secession, particularly as the Iranian military has been significantly weakened.
This is something Israel—and hopefully the US—must seize on, employing covert subversive tactics, presumably by means of the Mossad, CIA, and perhaps other Western intelligence agencies.
Israel cannot rely solely on regime change to ensure its post-war security, for at least two reasons.
The first relates to what the successor regime might be, with no guarantee that it will be at all amicable towards the Jewish state, particularly given the widespread negative view of Israel prevailing in large segments of the Iranian public.
The second relates to the uncertainty of the fate of any successor regime, no matter how benign, and the possibility of it itself being overthrown by some other regime, which might well be far more malevolent than its deposed predecessor.
Accordingly, in order to address these unknowns, Israel must go beyond the goal of regime change. Instead, it must aspire for Iran to be dismantled into separate self-governing ethnic entities to ensure that, in the future, it will not become the grave menace that it was in the past.
Dr. Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defense establishment. He's the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defense & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project.
