A diplomatic source involved in Gaza ceasefire and hostage release negotiations revealed significant progress in drafting the American proposal details expected to form the agreement's foundation. The source explained that the primary challenge centers on Hamas' demands for guarantees ensuring the ceasefire extends beyond the initial 60-day period. Recent hours have witnessed intensive discussions about these developments and delegation matters.
Washington conversations between Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff produced at least two proposals addressing the core issues, with Israel demonstrating remarkable flexibility. Simultaneously, Hamas accepted several previously rejected conditions – notably agreeing to provide hostage status information, accept international oversight of food distribution in territories under its control, and crucially, show flexibility regarding its post-war role.
Nevertheless, discussions with senior Israel Defense Forces officials and security sources raised concerns that intensified pressure on Hamas and severe operational damage might endanger hostages through resulting in anarchy and internal conflicts with armed factions from various groups and organized clans.
These developments accelerated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned Washington visit next week. The trip primarily serves as a victory tour following the Iran conflict and coordination regarding future strategies. Anticipated discussions include sustained economic pressure and sanctions until Iran accepts negotiation parameters.
Should a ceasefire announcement occur during the visit, President Donald Trump would gain another milestone toward international recognition as a peacemaker, while Netanyahu advances his second objective – concluding the Gaza conflict – and third goal of expanding the Abraham Accords.
Proposal details under consideration
Despite advancement, Gaza's fundamental issues persist. Hamas's insistence on ceasefire guarantees until complete war termination conflicts with Israel's rejection of Hamas's war-ending demands – disarmament and leadership exile. The current proposal defers contentious matters to the 60-day negotiation period during the ceasefire, offering solutions to Hamas's complete war cessation guarantees, even if talks exceed the 60-day timeframe.
The ceasefire framework envisions releasing 10 living hostages and approximately 15 bodies. Eight living hostages would be freed during the initial days, with the remaining releases at mid-point. Reciprocally, Palestinian prisoners would be released from Israeli facilities following previously established exchange ratios.
Hamas must provide comprehensive hostage condition details and health guarantees, representing notable progress. Israel requires Red Cross visits and medical treatment provision, which Hamas currently rejects.
The framework additionally continues and expands supply deliveries to Hamas-controlled areas. Israel demands international supervision preventing Hamas theft – a requirement Hamas attributes to UN personnel while accusing Israel of encouraging armed clan interference.
Israel maintains that GHF aid center operations must continue, successfully distributing nearly 2 million daily meals. Hamas demands operational cessation, claiming Gazan casualties during the center access. Israel presented evidence proving Hamas directly kills these civilians, including dozens of GHF workers traveling by bus to distribution centers.
Israeli withdrawal plans remain gradual and partial, correlating with the final arrangement negotiation progress. The 60-day ceasefire period would witness minimal withdrawal meeting IDF standards. Further withdrawal depends on negotiation advancement, with Israel demanding continued presence in Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, plus perimeter and northern buffer zones controlling Sderot and surrounding areas.
Second phase complexities
Second phase proposals involve multinational forces incorporating Arab, American, and additional contingents assuming Gaza Strip security control and governmental responsibilities. The primary obstacle involves not the force composition but the universal reluctance to deploy personnel while Hamas retains weaponry.
Saudi sources indicated two months ago that any Hamas possession of weapons, even single rifles, would inevitably target peacekeeping efforts. Proposed solutions include neighborhood-by-neighborhood force deployment, with clans and Palestinian terrorist groups surrendering weapons for "custodial" storage. Egypt offered territorial storage, but Hamas and allies refuse.
Tunnel network issues remain unresolved, as Hamas refuses to discuss tunnel map disclosure or heavy weapon inventories, including rockets, mortars, and explosive devices.
Progress notwithstanding, excessive optimism seems premature. Previous ceasefires consistently restored Hamas' confidence and hardened negotiating positions. Arab sources familiar with Palestinian internal negotiations indicate Hamas insists on retaining future Gaza control roles without Palestine Liberation Organization integration or security force incorporation.
Conversely, regional strategic dynamics involve particularly powerful forces ultimately expected to defeat the Islamic terrorist organization. Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia, strongly advocate the comprehensive regional arrangement – the mega deal – promising enhanced security, stability, and investment opportunities in developing nations. Iran, the deal's primary opponent, suffers severe degradation, while Qatar, despite Washington administration connections, carefully avoids supporting opposition elements.
