The large-scale military offensive against Iran's nuclear project in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo brought unprecedented tactical and military achievements. According to some assessments, approximately 60% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers were destroyed, as were approximately 80% of its air defense systems. Israel's intelligence and operational capabilities highlighted its strategic superiority and ability to locate, penetrate, and eliminate key figures and sensitive infrastructure in the heart of Iran.
However, at the end of the "12-day war" and following the impressive military success, a central question arises: how to leverage the achievements in the military arena into successes in the political and diplomatic fields. How to prevent Iran from rebuilding its military and nuclear capabilities. The answer lies in one word: enforcement.
The political stage is no less critical than the military one, and it requires a transition from a policy of deterrence and attack to a policy of regulation and enforcement. The war results placed on the negotiating table of the international community (and also of Israel) a one-time opportunity. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi himself clarified this point to the Iranians. With the entry into force of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Grossi wrote to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi about the importance of cooperation with the organization for a successful agreement, emphasizing that "this step could lead to a diplomatic solution to the years-long conflict surrounding the nuclear program."
Therefore, the central goal of the political move is to exploit the window of opportunities that has opened, the fact that the Iranian regime is wounded but not humiliated, to reach a comprehensive and new nuclear agreement with Iran. The crown jewel of the agreement must be preventing the reconstruction of Iran's nuclear program and the development of long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. To achieve this goal, there is a need for an agreement that includes tight oversight mechanisms, sanctions, and, most importantly, a binding, effective, and uncompromising enforcement mechanism. In other words, the sword of punishment must always hang over Iran's head.
The best example of the importance of enforcement comes from Lebanon. As part of the ceasefire that took effect on November 27, 2024, and the renewal of understandings outlined in Security Council Resolution 1701 from August 2006, Hezbollah was required to withdraw north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese Armed Forces were to deploy in the south of the country. But the Shiite terror organization never sought to honor agreements, and since the ceasefire came into effect, it has violated it time and again.
However, the difference between the 2006 understandings and those of 2024 is that this time, Israel acts to forcibly enforce the agreement. "I have said many times," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained on November 27, "a good agreement is an agreement that is enforced – and we will enforce it." Indeed, according to data from the Alma Center, since the end of Operation Northern Arrows six months ago, the IDF carried out more than 400 strikes in Lebanon – an average of more than two strikes per day. The message is sharp and clear: a ceasefire does not grant immunity to terrorist activity, but is subject to enforcement. Every violation will receive a severe response.
Therefore, Iran's fate must be Hezbollah's fate in Lebanon. Just as Israel acts to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its strength and establishing terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon, so it must ensure that any future understanding with Iran includes clear and rigid enforcement mechanisms.
Past experience, particularly that of the nuclear agreement from July 2015, teaches that without strict enforcement, any agreement, no matter who drafts it, will quickly erode against Iranian determination.
There is a need to exploit the military successes of Operation Rising Lion, draw lessons from previous political initiatives, and lead to an agreement that will provide security for Israel and the entire world. Effective enforcement, including oversight, control, and readiness to act immediately, particularly through military means, is a necessary condition for Israel's achievements to translate into real and stable security.
